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Yuan falls as PBOC's Yi tip, no red line, open to ease off Bloomberg




© Reuters. Yuan falls as PBOC's Yi tip No red line, open to ease

(Bloomberg) – It fell most in a week when China's governor indicated that there is no line in the sand for the currency and that he is willing to to facilitate policies to protect the economy from war events.

The Chinese currency fell as much as 0.2%, the most since May 31, before one thought the loss a bit to trade at 6.9388 per dollar. The nation has a huge space to adapt its fiscal and monetary toolbox if the trade tensions worsen and there is no more important number than the other for the yuan's exchange rate, People Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg. [1[ads1]9659004] His comments came in the midst of intensifying debate on whether and when the yuan could weaken over 7 per dollar, a level that has not been touched since the global financial crisis. The Chinese currency has stabilized late, after tumbling in May, as a growing chorus of officials and state media issued verbal support.

Here's what analysts said about Yi's comments and the yuan:

National Australia Bank (Christy Tan, Marketing Strategy)

  • China can move from more targeted monetary relief, such as reduction of reserve quotas, to interest rate cuts
  • PBOCs can reduce benchmark indices if year-round growth threatens to fall below 6.2% and if US imposes rates on remaining Chinese exports
  • Risk of yuan outbreaks 7 having increased along with escalation in the commercial war and prospects of tensions being prolonged.
  • The trigger for 7 to break will be if there is no progress during the 20th summit, and the United States imposes more tariffs

Nissay Asset Management (Toshinobu Chiba, chief portfolio manager of the RO)

  • Yi comments that Chi na will focus on easing monetary policy and will allow the yuan to write off
  • PBOC may set its fixation weaker
  • The central bank will not allow the yuan to slip in a "radical" way after the currency falls below 7; it will cap yuan push at about 7.5 this year
  • The fund is currently beating long-term China government bonds will rise and are "slightly overweight" on the yuan, may become neutral in currency after seeing next week's reference rate [19659011] Scotiabank (Gao Qi, strategist)

    • Yi comments are a hint that China may allow the yuan to break 7
    • The governor is trying to prepare and guide the market for a possible break
    • The level can be broken if trade negotiations collapse

    Westpac Banking (Frances Cheung, leader of Asia macro strategy)

    • "China has a lot in the toolbox to support liquidity and growth. We believe that PBOCs are on a slight confusion."
    • Westpac Bank still has a cumulative 300 basis points of the reserve cuts that are penciled for the rest of the year, which will be "a combination of targeted and general cuts"
    • "Yi last comment should further comfort the interest rate and bond market, which had gone on the n cautious side, despite easing expectations. "
    • China still intends to avoid rapid yuan depreciation, but will not be limited by certain levels [19659009] Ideally, the yuan passing some important levels will not invite uncontrolled capital outflow

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