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Business

‘Wild ride’ lower for BTC? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week




Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week, still in holiday mode, with the US financial markets off for Independence Day.

The largest cryptocurrency, which is stuck below the increasingly frightening $ 20,000 limit, continues to feel pressure from the macro environment as talk of lower levels remains ubiquitous.

After a quiet weekend, hodlers find themselves stuck in a narrow area, while the prospect of an eruption on the upside seems increasingly difficult to believe.

As a trader and analyst point to July 4 as the site of a “wild run to the downside” for crypto markets, the countdown is underway for Bitcoin to cope with the recent rise in interest rates in the Federal Reserve.

What else can the coming week have in store? Cointelegraph takes a look at the potential market movement factors for the days ahead.

The BTC price refers to its time over the long weekend

Bitcoin came out unscathed over the weekend, but the classic pitfalls of off-peak trading remain.

The United States will not return to the trading table until July 5, which provides good opportunities for classic weekend price action in the meantime.

So far, the market has held back when it comes to volatility ̵[ads1]1; with the exception of a brief increase to $ 18,800, BTC / USD has circled the range between $ 19,000 and $ 19,500 for several days.

Even the weekly close gave no real trend change, as data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed, with the psychologically significant $ 20,000 unchallenged.

BTC / USD 1-week light chart (bit stamp). Source: TradingView

“Even though we are below the low range, we can expect a fall down to $ 18,000,” the popular trading account Crypto Tony repeated to Twitter followers as part of a recent July 4 update:

“There have been some very boring days in the markets, and this is classic for the middle class.”

In terms of downward targets, others continued to see the area around $ 16,000.

Without any meaningful Bitcoin futures gap and flat performance in Asian markets, meanwhile, there was little to be gained when it comes to short-term price targets for short-term traders.

The US dollar, meanwhile, continued to stay close to twenty years high after returning from its last retracement despite.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was above 105 at the time of writing.

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Gold is approaching “explosion” against US stocks

With Wall Street closed for Independence Day, US equities could take a breather on July 4.

For a popular chartist, however, attention focuses on the strength of stocks versus gold (XAU) in the current environment.

In a Twitter thread, gold monitor Patrick Karim specifically flagged that the precious metal was about to hit a historic “blast off” zone against the S&P 500 (SPX).

After reaching the bottom at the end of 2021, the relationship between gold and S&P has recovered through this year and is now in the process of crossing a border, which has historically led to a significant upside afterwards.

“Gold is approaching an” explosion zone “versus US equities. Previous departures have provided important gains for Silver & Miners, “commented Karim.

The situation can not be said to be the same in US dollars, with the USD strength holding XAU / USD below $ 2000 since March.

Nevertheless, for silver fans, the implications are that even a modest push-through for the XAU / SPX ratio will yield significant returns.

The forecast again raises questions about the extent of Bitcoin’s ability to break with macro trends. An outburst against BTC for gold would be the natural contagious effect if Karim’s scenario were to play out, thanks to the ongoing correlation with equities.

“After escaping the sideways pattern that had formed over a period of 1.5 years, the correlation coefficient increased sharply to 86% vs. the S&P 500,” popular trader and analyst CRYPTOBIRB summarized over weekends:

“Now, with a ratio of 0.78, it is still strongly positive.”

Co-analyst Venturefounder noted that Bitcoin also remains linked to movements in the Nasdaq.

Against the dollar, Cointelegraph meanwhile reported that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation is now at 17-month highs.

Crunch time for Hayes’ “would ride to the downside”

July 4, apart from being Independence Day, is especially seen by one market player as a holiday without equal – at least for Bitcoin.

With closed markets and BTC price actions already on the verge of support, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the derivative platform BitMEX, has designated this long weekend as a long day of accounting for crypto markets.

The reasoning seems logical. At the end of June, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rates by 75 basis points, which provided fertile ground for a negative reaction from risk assets. Low liquidity “outside opening hours” holiday trading increases the potential for volatile price movements up or down. Combined, the cocktail, Hayes warned last month, could be potent.

“By June 30 (end of Q2), the Fed will have adopted a 75 bps rate hike and begun to shrink its balance sheet. July 4 falls on a Monday, and is a federal and bank holiday, “he wrote in a blog post:

“This is the perfect setup for another mega crypto dump.”

So far, however, no sign of what Hayes says will be a “wild trip to the bottom” has materialized. The BTC / USD has remained virtually static since the end of last week.

The deadline should be 5 July, as the return to traders and their capital can provide the liquidity needed to stabilize the markets, as well as buy up any coins that become cheap in the event of a last-minute downturn.

Hayes added that his earlier forecasts that BTC / USD would bottom out at $ 27,000 and Ether (ETH) / USD at $ 1800 were already “in shambles” in June.

The mining difficulty is still increasing

Despite significant concerns about miners’ ability to withstand the current BTC price decline, Bitcoins are basic network remains calm.

An impressive proof of the miners’ willingness to stay on the network, the difficulty is not planned to diminish in the coming restructuring this week.

After declining by a modest 2.35% two weeks ago, the degree of difficulty, which automatically rises and falls to take into account fluctuations in the participation of miners, will hardly change this time.

According to estimates from the chain monitoring resource BTC.com, the degree of difficulty will even increase if current prices remain the same, adding 0.5% to what is a calculation that is still close to all-time highs.

Basic overview of Bitcoin networks (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

As for the miners themselves, opinions are that it is the less efficient players – possibly newcomers with a higher cost base – who have been forced to quit.

Data uploaded to social media by CEO Capriole Charles Edwards last week set the production cost for miners en masse at around $ 26,000. Of that, $ 16,000 is electricity, which means that mining costs directly affect their ability to limit losses in the current environment.

“We traded below electric costs in June, but the floor has since fallen as inefficient miners capitulate,” Edwards noted.

Production cost chart for Bitcoin miners. Source: Charles Edwards / Twitter

A sea of ​​downturns

Bitcoin on-chain calculations that point to record sales are nothing new this year and especially in recent weeks.

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The trend continues in July, as the network returns to scenarios not seen since the wake of the crash across markets in March 2020.

According to the chain analysis company Glassnode, the number of coins used at a loss is now the highest since July 2020. Glassnode analyzed the weekly moving average of unused transaction outputs (UTXOs) in a loss.

Bitcoin UTXO in loss chart (7-day moving average). Source: Glassnode

Similarly, the percentage of UTXOs in profit reached a two-year low of just over 72% on 3 July.

Bitcoin% UTXO in performance chart (7-day moving average). Source: Glassnode

Bear markets can produce some welcome, if rare, silver fodder. Bitcoin transaction fees, once painfully high during bullish periods of intense network activity, are now also at their lowest level since July 2020. The median fee, Glassnode reveals, is $ 1.15.

Bitcoin median transaction fee chart. Source: Glassnode

As Cointelegraph reported, the same goes for Ethereum network gas charges.

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