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Why the company's earnings season is performing better than expected



More than 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported revenue for July through September. And the results? They look better than Wall Street had expected.

The latest: 76% of S&P 500 companies have turned in per-share forecasts, while 61% have turned in turnover forecasts, according to FactSet. There is good news for equities, which generally move in line with expectations during the revenue season.

Third-quarter revenues will still decline by 2.7%, the largest fall from the previous year since mid-2016, per FactSet. But it is much better than the 4.1% drop that had become a pencil a month ago.

"Revenues in the United States are surprisingly high on the upside," Mislav Matejka, global and European equity strategy leader in JPMorgan [1
9659005] ( JPM )
wrote in a note to clients at Friday.

Investors seem to be more forgiving. "Despite some noteworthy profit forecasts, stocks that lack estimates are not penalized as severely as in recent quarters," said Matejka.

The reason for the pickup is two-fold, Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout, told me.

Typically, 75% to 80% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations in a given quarter, since companies prefer conservative estimates and analysts follow suit, he said.

This quarter also benefits the Federal Reserve stimulus revenue. . A third rate cut in a row, which officially came out last week, didn't hurt either.

Trouble ahead: Meanwhile, the outlook for the fourth quarter is dimmed. Year-on-year revenue – which was expected to grow by 2.4% a month ago – is now projected to decline by 0.4%, according to FactSet.

Investors are already thinking about the 2020 election

[19659003] If you thought it was too early for investors to worry about the US presidential election – think again.

  How Elizabeth Warren Could & # 39; evaporate & # 39; America & # 39; s oil boom
Portfolio managers are "intensely focused on the investment implications of potential outcomes of the 2020 US election," Goldman Sachs ( GS ) said in new research published Friday. From tax consequences to sectors that may have increased regulation, there is much to chew on. According to the investment bank, according to the investment bank, Senator Elizabeth Warren's policy proposals are given considerable weight.

Goldman's Roof: One element that can be quantified is the impact of corporate tax rates on S&P 500 revenue. If the Republican tax cuts in 2017 are completely reversed, Goldman estimates that the company's earnings growth in 2021 would dive 7% instead of increasing 5%.

Sector Press: It's also reasonable to assume that some sectors may come under pressure from increased political uncertainty, Goldman said. The bank places health care shares in this category, as well as Facebook and Google.

For investors, it will be important to consider whether campaign promises are likely to come true, Goldman said. The strategists noted that certain "Trump trades" made in 2016, such as investing in shares that would benefit from infrastructure investment, later reversed the gain.

"History suggests that US equities are actually more responsive to policy implementation than election results," said US stock strategist David Kostin.

Saudi Arabia's Great Moment

Saudi Arabia goes ahead with an initial public offering from its huge state oil producer, which can break records and give investors the chance to own a piece of the world's most profitable company.

Following the approval of the country's regulators, Saudi Aramco formally announced on Sunday its intention to float shares on the Tadawul Stock Exchange in Riyadh. Aramco executives will now embark on an international roadshow for court investors, and a prospectus detailing the company's financial details is expected later this month.

The public offering is part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan to drain his country from oil and develop other areas of the economy. But getting the massive stock exchange listing off the ground has been a difficult process full of false starts.

Leaders made it clear on Sunday that they intended to move forward.

"The question may be: & # 39; Why not now? & # 39;" Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan told reporters at the press conference. "I think this is the right time for us – to get to a junction where we want to take Aramco to be a public company, to have more disclosure."

Up next

Monday: German production; Under Armor ( UA ) Ryanair ( RYAAY ) Groupon ( GRPN ) [19659029] Marriott ( MAR ) Shake Shack ( SHAK ) Hertz ( HTZ ) and Uber ( UBER ) revenue
Tuesday: United States trade balance; ISM non-producing index; Mylan ( MYL ) Allergan ( AGN ) Peloton ( PTON ) [19659029] Match Group ( MTCH ) earnings
Wednesday: SoftBank ( SFTBF ) Adidas ([19459007)] ADDDF ) BMW ( BMWYY ) Coty ( COTY ) CVS ( CVS ) New York Times ( NYT ) Papa John & # 39; s ( PZZA ) Wendy & # 39; s ( WEN ) Baidu ( BIDU ) Fitbit ( FIT ) [19659029] Qualcomm ( QCOM ) Roku ( ROKU ) Square ( SQ ) TripAdvisor (] TRIP ) Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ) Revenue
Thursday: Bank of England rate decision; Siemens ( SIEGY ) Disney ( DIS ) AMC Entertainment ( AMC ) [19659029] Keurig Dr. Pepper ( KDP ) SeaWorld ( SEAS ) Activision Blizzard ( ATVI ) Booking Holdings ( BKNG ) GoPro ( GPRO ) Lions Gate Entertainment ( LGFA [19459008)]) and Yelp ( YELP ) revenue

Friday: China trade balance and University of Michigan consumer sentiment


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