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Business

Where should stocks go next? It's about trading




Investors have highly celebrated the latest hint of progress in ending the damaging commercial war. News reports suggesting positive developments in the talks led Dow 500 points higher in the last two trading days last week.

The enthusiastic response to the stock market emphasizes how poor investors will ultimately have this trade battle between the world's two most important economies.

"The commercial war and the weapons used in it create distortions in the economy," says Mike Loewengart, head of investment strategy at E * Trade. "It has the potential to counter global growth."

Evidence of a true breakthrough in the trade negotiations could send shots higher.

American stocks popped on Thursday afternoon after a Wall Street Journal report that said Trump's administration officials were discussing raising tariffs on China. Rally lost steam as investors realized nothing officially had been decided ̵[ads1]1; and the Treasury issued a statement that undermines history.
The market rebounded Friday after Bloomberg News reported that China has offered to go on a six-year "buy-in" of US products aimed at resetting its trade surplus by 2024.

All three main indices were reported 3% in last week, their fourth consecutive weekly win.

"The last days of optimism show that it really comes down to this war," Loewengart said.

That means investors will be very disappointed if trade negotiations collapse. A breakdown in negotiations and outbreaks of tariffs will only deepen bold concerns about a sharp decline in economic growth, pushing corporate profits.
It is clear that investors will be bonded to the highly-negotiated trade negotiations on January 30 in Washington between US officials and China's top trading dealer, Vice President Liu He.

& # 39; Unsteady & # 39; ceasefire comes?

The two sides face a March 1 before a 90 day ceasefire agreed on December officially expires. It seems unlikely that dealers can determine the deep structural problems that have drawn the rival nations to then – if not at all. However, analysts increasingly believe that the negotiating window will be expanded.

Michael Hirson, Asia Director of the Eurasia Group, believes that a "limited deal" is "increasingly likely" in the coming months, because President Donald Trump will calm investors and boost the economy before the 2020 election.

But commercial peace may not be the kind that satisfies Chinese piles in the White Room.

"It will be an unstable and incomplete ceasefire, an agreement that is far from tackling the deep problems between the two countries and economies," Hirson wrote in a report published last week.

E * Trade's Lowengart said that while a broader solution would be "ideal", the market would be happy with everything that pushes the US and China back from the brink.

"Any incremental progress to move us towards an agreement will be taken by investors," he said.

2. Davo's time: Annual Economic Forum annual summit starts Tuesday in Davos, Switzerland. Every year, the event draws in thousands of the world's richest and most powerful people, meeting and talking about panels in the European ski resort.

US President Donald Trump has said he is not coming to Davos this year because of government closure. British Prime Minister Theresa May canceled his turn during Brexit's turmoil, and French President Emmanuel Macron will also skip the event this year. But many other high-profile individuals are planning to be there, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The theme for 2019 is "Globalization 4.0."

3. Earnings season: Last week, everything was about US bank revenues. Now it is time for other companies to report results from the last three months of 2018.

A theme this week may be the effect of the slow Chinese economy. Investors will keep an eye on the results of Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Ford (F) and Starbucks (SBUX), all of which have solid exposure to the Chinese market.
The big question is whether problems identified by Apple (AAPL) extend wider. Earlier this month, CEO Tim Cook said the company would miss its final goal largely due to poor sales in China.

4. Economic indicators: Due to increased economic uncertainty, two major central banks will make interest rate decisions this week: Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.

Any action would be a surprise. In Japan, short-term interest rates have been in negative territory since 2016. Meanwhile, the ECB has undertaken to keep interest rates throughout the summer of 2019. The Bank will avoid severe volatility after concluding its massive bond negotiation program in December. 19659003] China will also report its GDP from the last quarter of 2018. Last year, the country has the weakest quarterly growth since the depth of the global financial crisis. Marketers will want to know if the trade war with the United States continues to take a big twelve.

5. Financial data blackout: Blackout of some important financial data continues this week when the government finishes its fifth week. US reports are the gold standard, and business executives use them to plan investments and guide companies. The week before would have included these three from the Commerce Department: New home sales and revised building permit (Friday); Lasting goods (Friday) and gross domestic product by industry (Thursday).

6. Coming This Week:

Monday – Wynn Resorts Earnings, China's Fourth Quarter GDP

Tuesday – World Economic Forum begins; Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), IBM (IBM) and Capital One (COF) Earnings
Wednesday – Bank of Japan rate decision; Comcast (CMCSA), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Ford Earnings
Thursday – ECB Decision; Revenue for Southwest Airlines (LUV), American Airlines (AAL), Starbucks and Intel (INTC)
Friday – Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Earnings



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