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When will it stop falling? It’s anyone’s guess




At this point, it might be easier to change a tire on a Model S in under 10 minutes than trying to call a bottom in Tesla’s ( TSLA ) battered stock.

Shares of the electric car maker fell 11.4% in Tuesday’s session on reports that the company would run at reduced capacity at its key Shanghai plant through January, raising fresh doubts about the current pace of consumer demand. Tesla’s ticker page was among the top three visitors on Yahoo Finance, underscoring the ongoing anxiety over the always-volatile stock.

Shares fell as much as 4% in premarket trading on Wednesday before recovering.

In the wake of the latest drop, the startling statistic about Tesla̵[ads1]7;s stock price (and everything connected to it) became that much more striking:

  • One month: -41%

  • Three months: -60%

  • Six months: -55%

  • Year to date: -70% (S&P 500 -19%)

  • Lost market value so far this year: $241 billion

  • Elon Musk’s net worth lost so far this year: -$141 billion

Analysts claim that the bottom is not yet in sight for the stock despite the violent sell-off into 2023.

“Musk started this five-alarm fire on Tesla stock, and he’s the only one who can put it out. It’s a perfect storm between the Musk Twitter fiasco and now the claims explosion,” Wedbush analyst and vocal Musk critic Dan Ives told Yahoo Finance.

To a large extent, the fact that no one on the Street is trying to make a bottom call on Tesla’s stock reflects the increasing bad news swirling around the company.

First is the negative outlook on demand in both the US and China.

Tesla said on its website last week that it will offer $7,500 in rebates on Model 3 and Model Y vehicles delivered in the United States in December. It coincides with analysts cutting fourth-quarter delivery estimates before they were reported in early January.

Then there remains the elephant in the room – Musk’s continued chaotic operation of Twitter and how it may affect Tesla’s operations.

The prospect of Musk selling more shares to speed up his turnaround at Twitter has also weighed on the stock. Musk said in a new chat on Twitter a week ago that he would not sell more Tesla shares until 2024 at the earliest. He has made similar proclamations this year only to later sell more shares.

When will it stop falling?  It’s anyone’s guess

Rege-Jean Page looks on at Elon Musk as they arrive at the In America: An Anthology of Fashion-themed Met Gala at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, New York, U.S., May 2, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

In other words, investors simply don’t believe Musk in this regard — and they’re voicing that view loudly.

Put all of this together, along with the fact that Tesla shares are still trading at rich valuation multiples relative to the broad market, and you have a sell-off event that may not have run its course before a clear positive development emerges. (Musk handing over CEO at Twitter will be a big help, analysts say.)

Added Ives: “We think the stock is oversold, but it will be a tough ride ahead.”

Sounds about right.

Brian Sozzi is a major editor and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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