قالب وردپرس درنا توس
Home / Business / What to Expect in the September Job Report

What to Expect in the September Job Report



U.S. employers probably added lower workers in September, consensus economists believe, in another sign that a growth spurt has surpassed the domestic economy.

The Department of Labor is set to release its report on the health of the US labor market from September on Friday at 8:30 am ET. Here are the key figures economists expect from the pressure, according to Bloomberg data:

  • Non-farm salary: +145,000 versus +130,000 in August

  • Unemployment: 3.7%, versus 3.7% in August

  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM: + 0.2% vs. + 0.4% in August

  • Average Hourly Earnings YoY: + 3.2% vs. + 3.2% in August

The labor market has so far seen fewer new jobs added during the year while unemployment was near a low decade. The three-month average for new pay increases through August was 156,000, compared to 241,000 over the same three months of 2018.

Previously released employment data for September have provided mixed signals as to whether the labor market's relative upturn will hold its way into the final quarter of the year.

"For one, during the survey week in September (the week that includes the 12th of the month), the first unemployed allegations went on to give some special indication that the shooting has picked up and continue to show layoffs in the US running on historically low levels, "Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner wrote in a note Thursday. The four-week moving average for new unemployment claims was 208,000 during the week the Labor Department is completing its September job report, against a continuing sanguin 212,500 now.

Plus, Conference Board & # 39; s labor market difference – representing the difference between the percentage of consumers who say jobs are plentiful and the percentage that says jobs are hard to find – remained relatively high at 33 , 2 in September, suggesting that the labor market remained tight.

Disappointing data

But other data have been less positive about the employment situation. On Wednesday, ADP / Moody released a report showing that private sector payroll increases rose by 135,000 in September, and Bloomberg's consensus expectations were missing 5,000. August's private payroll was downgraded by 38,000 to 157,000.

And after this week's dismal data on both production and service sides in the economy, the latest investors will see a disappointing Labor Department work report.

<p class = "canvas atom canvas text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This week the shares were whipsawed by the Institute of Supply Management released two separate reports showing that both production & nbsp; and & nbsp; service sector activity & nbsp; fell to multi-year low targets in September. "Data-reactid =" 40 "> This week, the shares were whipped after the Institute of Supply Management released two separate reports showing that both industrial and service sector activity fell to multi-year lows in September.

Softness in American manufacturing activity has been well documented this year in the midst of an ongoing trade war, and has been reflected in hiring in commodity-producing industries. Consensus economists expect the Labor Department's report to show only 3,000 industry profits added in September, consistent with August's push for the fewest additions since April.

More worrying was the softness reflected in the ISM's service sector report, which accounts for a larger portion of domestic activity and saw growth slowly to its lowest level in three years. Within this survey, the employment index fell to a five-year low of 50.4, and remained just above the neutral level of 50 to indicate only slight expansion of employment.

“The message from the latest ISM investigations is clear; companies are scaling back their hiring plans quite aggressively, ”Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note Thursday. "Although the other components of our Composite Employment Index are unchanged in September, the ISM message is that job growth is heading south."

As the mutual sentiment of many economists, Shepherdson pointed to the decline of the trade war as a cause of deterioration, with production already in contraction territory and the service sector "extremely nervous about the impact of customs duties on consumer goods."


Source link