February February ends without lunch and no agreement in Hanoi for POTUS and his North Korean counterpart, but much green for investors.
Investors are awakening to news that speaks between POTUS and North Korea's leader fell apart in the tough Thursdays when the two couldn't agree on sanctions. While geopolitics have a temporary effect on stocks, it can destroy some confidence in risky assets such as stocks such as large GDP data tissues later.
"The combination of lack of progress with North Korea and China will draw on stocks and we may have to wait for a new catalyst to renew the bullish start of the year," said Neil Wilson, market analyst at Markets.com.
Bullish start in fact February is set to deliver 3% or more gains for new indices, with some pointing out that it's the best two-month start to any year of the year since 1
But our call of the day from Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management, warns that we have shifted from a market opportunity in December to "market vulnerability" that month goes down, with the risk of "an abrupt change in market concentration and speed".
He explains his opinion in a recent e-mail to clients: "A weakening global economic recovery, a failing corporate performance image, unsustainable debt burden, political turmoil (and the risk of an ever-established president) provide an unhealthy basis for mark it has had such a lively rally. "
With that, Kass, posted a top 10 list of events that could cause US stocks to fall by at least 5% in a single session. Here we go:
1) Further bad news about US growth, a stumble for China's economy and a deeper recession for Europe. (Factory orders out of China Thursday were not good at all.)
2) No US-China trade deal and no "big deliveries" over IP -theft and / or technology exchange No agreement from Hanoi can also be a trigger
3) POTUS "whips into a number of political mistakes" shaky market confidence when he fails to get China, North Korea deals. For example, Europe beats auto tariffs.
4) A move under 2.5% in 10-year US Treasury yield
– as active continues to fail to validate improvement in US growth.
5) Machines and computerized trading, whose strategies are "all on the same side of the boat" pushing the seller button as big upward momentum we have seen in January and February makes a sudden U-turn.
6) More warnings over the results in the first quarter, adding fear for a negative year for the S&P 500 revenue.
7) Heating the home of POTUS, for example, damaging testimony of former lawyer Michael Cohen or a Mueller report.
8) A difficult, problematic Brexit.
9) Crude oil supplies spike and prices coincide.
10) A false ECB president Mario Draghi is being replaced by a hawk.
Note that Kass has been bears on stock for a while, when he became negative in January 2018.
Check out: The US stock market has now divided into "haves" and "have nots"
Trump:" I think it was very good, very friendly. This was not a walk as if you were getting up and going out, no, this was very friendly. We shook hands. It's a warmth we have. I hope it stays, I think it will. " pic.twitter.com/TMAntyAEx1
– Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) February 28, 2019
" Sometimes you have to go. "- It was the US president POTUS in a press in Hanoi , Vietnam, where he said talks ended early with North Korean counterpart Kim Jong Un because the latter would have more sanctions lifted.
In other highlights he said Kim felt very bad about American student Otto Warmbiber's death and based Democrats for the time of testimony about former lawyer Michael Cohen during a "very important summit." Siger Cohen is a liar. "
S & P 500
futures are lower, on the heels of Wednesday's insidious session that gave modest losses to Dow
and S & P 500
and a small gain for Nasdaq
COMP, + 0.07%
GCJ9, + 0.45%
is quite flat while crude oil
returns some of the big gains from Wednesday.
South Korea Kospi
led loss for Asia at the POTUS-Kim summit coincides. Chinese shares
fell on data showing weak factory activity data. Europe shares
is under pressure.
In all geopolitical noise, our today's chart highlights a large piece of economic news that dropped out of China on Thursday. The factory activity fell to the lowest level in three years, to 49.2 in February from 49.5 in January. The index has been in the contraction area – a reading below 50 – for three consecutive months. There were some small silver feeds, like the new order's sub-index, which fell.
Our Daily Shot chart shows export orders that slow down the fastest pace since the big recess:
A string of tech companies reported disappointing earnings late Wednesday and stocks are feeling the load – box
BOX, + 2.26%
FIT, + 3.93%
SQ, + 1.76%
. Victoria's Secret Parents L Brands
LB, [0.2459016] -0.29%
are also down on mixed results.
Opinion: HP is still disturbed by the internet in 2019
Thursday's earnings list includes Hormel
HRL, + 1.75%
early when Kraft Heinz
Hewlett Packard Enterprises
ROKU, + 3.52%
WEN, + 1.52%
and BJ s
Opinion: Whatever happened to this earnings recession?
Move Tesla again
TSLA, + 5.67%
large European car manufacturers BMW
BMW, + 0.12%
is expected to announce plans to keep track of self-propelled technology.
Ended a drought for one of his new aircraft, Boeing
BA, + 2.03%
landed a big order for his 777-9 jetliner from British Airways.
GDP is the big data point to see with first and second estimates for the fourth quarter coming at 8.30. East, along with weekly unemployed claims, followed by Chicago's purchasing manager index and vacancies.
Financial Preview: GDP may show US economy falls below 2% growth in late 2018
A number of Fed speakers also come, with chairman Jerome Powell, Thursday night in New York. speaker. Philly, Dallas, Cleveland and Atlanta Fed President Patrick Harker, Robert Kaplan, Loretta Mester and Raphael Bostic. Also Fed's vice chairman Richard Clarida.
Egypt's transport minister stepped down after terrible train crash that triggered an explosion at Cairo Central Station, leaving 20 dead, dozens of injured
Confused in tensions with Russia, Ukraine withdraws from Eurovision song competition
] Video of Chinese children singing the praises of Huawei phones goes viral
Who benefits from a minimum wage? You will be surprised
Just as the child's Fortnite addiction begins to decline, comes here, season 8.
– Ded Flanders (@FlandersDed) February 28, 2019
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