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Business

Was Fed’s Powell dovish or not? 4 important takeaways from Wednesday’s press conference




Investors reacted as if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday was dovish, but many economists think it was on the hawkish side of the street.

Here are some of the highlights from Powell’s hour-long discussion with reporters about the state of the economy and central bank policy:

Read: The Fed raises interest rates to combat the highest inflation in 41 years

You say “dove-like” and I say “hawk-like”

After Powell spoke, stock prices DJIA,
+1[ads1].37%

SPX,
+2.62%
rose sharply and bond yields TMUBMUSD02Y,
2.975%
fell more on the short end than on the long end, clear signs that the market thought Powell was dove.

But Robert Perli, head of global policy at Piper Sandler, disagreed with this conclusion.

“The press conference was hawkish,” he said.

“All Powell could do at the press conference today was talk about how inflation was too high, how the Fed is determined to bring it down, and by implication how he would be willing to tolerate a recession if that’s what it takes to get the job done, said Perli.

The market latched onto Powell’s statement that slowing down from the pace of 0.75 percentage point rate hikes was likely to be appropriate “at some point.” Perli said this is “obvious” since the Fed cannot continue at that pace forever.

The market also liked when Powell said the Fed was moving into a new “meet-to-meet” phase, perhaps believing that a peak in interest rates is near.

Perli said it is a misreading and Powell does not want to provide guidance because there is so much uncertainty.

Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, said the lack of forward guidance from the Fed could increase interest rate and stock market volatility around key US data releases, particularly on inflation “as investors try to figure out what that might mean for the pace of further rate hikes and the terminal peak for rates in the current tightening cycle.”

Powell “bobs and weaves” on recession

Powell was able to “bob and weave” around the recession issues, said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR.

Powell said the Fed was not trying to create a recession and was not expecting one, and also that we are not currently in one. He declined to categorically state how it would affect the Fed’s policy path if one materialized, Shapiro said.

The Fed chairman said there was still some way to go to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market.

“We continue to think there is a way [to a soft landing]. We know that the path has clearly narrowed … and may be narrowed further,” he said.

Powell said the Fed is determined to bring down inflation, and this likely means a period of “below-trend economic growth and some softening of labor market conditions.”

What about September?

Powell left the door open to another “unusually large” hike of 0.75 percentage points in September, but said that would depend on the data.

Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, noted that Powell indicated that the fed funds rate at year-end would be in the range of 3.25%-3.5%. That’s another 100 basis points higher, which the Fed might prefer to achieve with a 50 basis point increase followed by two 25 basis point hikes, rather than going from 75 basis points in September to 25, then to zero. Powell “sounded marginally less hawkish to me,” he said.

Balance sheets

Powell said the Fed’s balance sheet-shrinking program is working and markets “should be able to absorb this.” He said the plan was on track and could take two to two and a half years.

Some economists have begun to predict that the Fed will end its “quantitative tightening” program next year.



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