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Business

US tariffs will beat China harder next year, analysts say




The impact of Trump's tariffs on China's economy has mostly only been psychologically so far in the ongoing commercial war, analysts say.

It may be the intention to change next year, potentially denting Chinese growth.

" With the tariffs we have not seen the direct effect, But we'll see it next year, "said Tom Rafferty, President and CEO of China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

" The risk here (s) will slow down pretty well in 2019, "he said. Change in a notch or two. "

Production and exports have helped drive China's rapid rise to the world's second largest economy, but the challenges are growing as so-called synchronized global growth looks set to decline. China's GDP growth has already fallen. At the lowest pace for more than two decades, while Beijing is trying to shift the economy into a consumer-driven business while reducing the dependence on debt for fuel growth, in the meantime, the business impacts on domestic uncertainties already affecting consumer sentiment.

Trade Stresses between the world's two largest economies increased this year, when the US under President Donald Trump launched tariffs of $ 250 billion of Chinese goods ̵[ads1]1; two-thirds of the bilateral deficit in 2017. Beijing responded with its own $ 110 billion US taxes. In the last month, both sides reached temporary ceasefire on new escalations. The White House has agreed not to raise tariffs in January if it can sign an agreement with China by the beginning of March, while Beijing has announced cuts on some tariffs on animal feed meals and cars.

In theory, the prices for US take consumers and reduce the demand for Chinese-made products that hit an already slowing economy. Nevertheless, China's trade surplus with the United States has hit a record in November.

"China is doing pretty well because of the export due to frontloading," said Zhu Ning, professor of economics at Tsinghua University and vice president of China's National Institute of Financial Research.

Like several other experts who spoke to CNBC for this story, Zhu said he expects the trade tensions to have a greater impact on China's economy next year, particularly through a slowdown in exports. 19659003] The economy already shows signs of backtring. After a strong annual export growth of 14.4 per cent in September and 15.6 per cent in October, growth slowed to a disappointing 5.4 per cent increase in November, according to official figures opened through the Wind Info database.

The southern province of Guangdong, no doubt the largest source of Chinese exports, stopped publishing a corporate activity index in October. The latest release, in September, of the provincial purchasing manager's index showed 50.20, barely above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction, according to Wind. The national PMI hit 50 in November.

China's National Bureau of Statistics said in an online post dated 18 December that the Guangdong Province, Department of Industry and Information Technology, did not respond to the permission to conduct the survey behind the index. 19659003] "Next year, we are slowly seeing exports to low-digit growth," said Larry Hu, head of the major China economy at Macquarie Group. He said he expects the US and China to reach an agreement, and that a decline in China's real estate market will have a greater impact on the economy than tariffs.



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