WASHINGTON (Reuters) – US employment growth probably rose from a 17-month low in March as a milder weather-started activity in sectors such as construction, which could further fear a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter.
FILE PHOTO: Job seekers and recruiters gather at TechFair in Los Angeles, California, USA March 8, 2018. REUTERS / Monica Almeida – / File Photo
However, worsening labor shortages and poor effects of tighter financial market conditions during the turn of the year, suggest that the job gain is likely to remain during the 2018 high pace.
The Ministry of Labor's closely monitored monthly employment report on Friday will monitor the rise of fairly optimistic construction costs and factory data, which led Wall Street banks to increase their growth estimates for the first quarter.
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 180,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Investors will also follow to see if February's weak 20,000 job figures, at least since September 2017, have been revised higher.
"A figure that is close to consensus and upgraded to February will give you some degree of comfort that while the economy is lowering, it does not fall rapidly," said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America in Baltimore. 19659004] The economy has shifted to lower yields as a stimulus from the Trump administration's $ 1.5 trillion tax cut package, as well as increased public spending is disappearing, a trade war between Washington and Beijing, and the slower global growth has also surged the economy, as in July will celebrate 10 years of expansion, the longest on record.
Growth forecasts for the first quarter are between 1.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent annual interest rates. The economy grew by 2.2 per cent interest rate in the fourth quarter and declined from July September's high 3.4 per cent pace
Fear of an abrupt economic downturn may also be confused by strengthening wage growth and low unemployment. The average hourly wage is expected to have increased 0.3 per cent in March, having jumped 0.4 percent in February.
That would keep the annual wage growth of 3.4 percent, the biggest gain since April 2009. Strong wage growth could boost confidence that consumer spending would accelerate and support the economy after consumption ceased in January.
WORKERS ARE SAFETY
The labor shortage drives up wages. Unemployment is forecast unchanged at 3.8 percent in March, close to 3.7 percent as the Federal Reserve officials project will be by the end of the year.
Although the employment gains are moderate from an average of 223,000 in 2018, they remain above the approximately 100,000 per month needed to keep up with the growth of the working age population.
Economists say a strong employment report in March, suggesting that financial market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this year were too early. The interest-rate expectations have gained traction when the yield curve of the US yield curve was reversed at the end of March, and revived recession.
The US central bank suspended its three-year campaign to tighten monetary policy and drop forecasts for any interest rate hike this year after raising borrowing costs four times in 2018.
"If the last weakness is just a soft patch and not quicksand, Fed can surprise the markets and decide to sharpen their money programs later this year, with an interest rate rise right in time for the holiday, says Beth Ann Bovino, US chief economist at S&P Global Ratings in New York.
That's about 7.58 Millions of open jobs in the economy, despite labor participation, or the share of unemployed Americans who have a job or look for one, have risen to the highest of more than five years at 63.2 percent.
"So far, we've got people to join the workforce, allowing businesses to hire people, especially at the unskilled and semi-professional level, "said Sung Won Sohn, finance professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. are signs that it can go dry. "
Economists expect growth to average around 150,000 this year. Employment on construction sites is expected to have recovered after falling by 31,000 jobs in February, the largest decline since December 2013. The leisure and guest sector payrolls are expected to have accelerated after parking.
The manufacturing sector is expected to mark 20 straight months of employment gains in March, the longest stroke since the mid-1980s. But the outlook for the sector is less positive as automakers have announced thousands of job reductions to deal with delayed sales that have led to an inventory buildup.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Phil Berlowitz