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Business

US economy shrinks in second quarter, signals unofficial start of recession | American economy




The US economy shrank again in the past three months, unofficially signaling the start of a recession.

The Commerce Department announced Thursday that gross domestic product (GDP) — a broad measure of the price of goods and services — fell at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter after falling at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first three months .

The bad news will be a major blow to the Biden administration as it prepares for a tough midterm election season. White House officials have sought to tone down talk of a recession, arguing that many parts of the economy remain strong.

The growth rate is in marked contrast to the robust 6.9% annual increase in GDP recorded in the last quarter of 2021[ads1] as the economy roared back from Covid shutdowns.

The rapid rate of growth contributed to rising inflation – now at 40-year highs – and the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates sharply to bring down prices.

The changed economic environment was reflected in the GDP report. Consumer spending – the biggest driver of the economy – slowed during the quarter but remained positive, rising 1% year-on-year. Fixed investment in housing, or housing construction, fell 14% year-on-year, and reduced business inventories, goods produced but not yet sold by businesses, dragged down the GDP figure.

Two quarters of negative GDP growth is widely seen as a signal that the economy has entered recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end. While the GDP numbers will factor into the NBER’s final verdict, it also looks at a broader range of economic factors, including the labor market, and is unlikely to issue its decision soon.

“The 0.9% annualized fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but does not mean the economy is in recession,” said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics. “That said, the details show that higher interest rates and rising inflation are weighing on underlying demand, and we expect only a subdued slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year.”

Meanwhile, pressure remains on the Biden administration. Consumer confidence surveys are falling as recession fears rise and Joe Biden’s overall and economic approval numbers are at the lowest levels of his presidency.

In a statement, Biden said it is no surprise that the economy is slowing as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right track, and we will emerge stronger and more secure through this transition.”

Republicans countered that the report shows that “Democrats’ reckless economic policies are destroying our economy”.

The latest GDP figures came a day after the Fed announced another three-quarter percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rates as it battles to tame inflation.

Prices rose at an annual rate of 9.1% in the year to June, driven up by soaring costs of fuel, food and shelter.

While parts of the US economy remain strong – particularly the labor market – the Covid pandemic continues to wreak havoc on global supplies, and the war in Ukraine has pushed up energy prices.

The confusing economic outlook has triggered a sell-off in stock markets around the world and led some economists to predict a recession is coming. Almost 70% of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times last month predicted the US economy will tip into a recession next year.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he did not believe that the US is now in a recession. But he said the Fed was prepared to keep raising interest rates to bring prices back down, and it was inevitable that such a move would slow the economy and affect the labor market. “Price stability is what makes the whole economy work,” Powell said.



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