US Corn Acreage Way About Trade Expectations, Market Falls, USDA / WASDE Says
DES MOINES, Iowa – The USDA looks at the maize area in the US in 2019 almost unchanged from the March estimate, according to its junior report released Friday.
As a result, the grain market fell, while the soybean market moved up 11 ¢ per bushel, after the report at 11.00 CT.
By midsession is Sep. corn futures 12 1/4 ¢ lower at $ 4.33. Dec. Corn futures are 12 3/4 ¢ lower at $ 4.38 1/4.
August soybean futures are 10 1/4 ¢ higher at $ 9.04. November soybean futures are 8 3/4 ¢ higher at $ 9.21.
September wheat futures are 14 1/2 ¢ lower at $ 5.32 1/4.
July soyme futures is $ 0.30 per short ton lower at $ 31[ads1]2.90. July soy oil futures are $ 0.31 higher at 28.24 ¢ per pound.
On the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $ 0.04 lower, the US dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 106 points higher.
US .. 2019 Planting Report
In his report, the USDA USA 2019 grain area poked 91.7 million bushels vs. avg. trading estimate of 86.7 million and USDA's 2018 June estimate of 92.8 million.
For soybeans, USDA 2019 sees an area of 80.0 million versus trade expectations of 84.4 million and USDA's 2018 June estimate of 89.2 million.
All wheat area estimates are fixed at 45.6 million versus trade expectations of 45.67 million and USDA's June 2018 estimate of 45.8 million.
| (in million bushels) | USDA June 2019 | No. Trade Estimates | USDA March |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 91.7 million | 86.7 million | 92.8 million |
| Soybeans | 80.0 million | 84.4 million | 84.6 million |
| Wheat | 45.6 million | 45.7 million | 45.8 million |
Interim Test report
In its report, the USDA plotted the US June 1 grain stock of 5,202 billion bushels against avg. trading estimate of 5.34 billion and USDA year ago shares estimate NOK 5,305 billion.
For soybeans, the USDA on June 1 looks at 1,790 billion bushels versus the average trade estimate of 1.86 billion and USDA's 2018 estimate of $ 1.21 billion.
USDA hung the US wheat stocks from June 1 to 1,072 billion bushels versus avg. trade estimate of 1.10 billion and USDA's 2018 estimate of 1.099 billion kroner.
| in million hectares | USDA June 2019 | No. Trade estimate | USDA last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 5.202 billion | 5,349 bill. | 5.305 bill. |
| Soybeans | NOK 1,790 billion | 1,861 bill. | 1,219 bill. |
| All wheat | 1,072 billion | 1.10 bill. | 1,099 bill. |
Handelsreaktjon
Jack Scoville, the PRICE Futures Group, says the USDA gave the markets another shocker, today.
"Everyone is looking for more beans and less grains and has the exact opposite. That is why it is the big reaction and it is quite understandable. A 25 cent range in corn in less than 3 minutes is something. Nobody understands the corn plant and harvested area, since the USDA had not shown that kind of progress in weekly data. The inventory reports are nice, but the planted report is the headline and most likely not in a good way for many traders and brokers, these are willing numbers, I have a farmer who has told Me that much grain was planted early in the month, but still, these numbers are hard to believe, Scoville says.
Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says the USDA maize area estimate tells.
"Farmers were clearly incentivized to plant maize to capture state benefits conditionally gaining some ground this season. Look for July WASDE to reflect a slightly improved corn balance and to tighten the soybean balance perhaps more than expected before the current land report, says Gilbertie.
Gilbert adds, "Wheat disappearance reflects the healthy speed of wheat exports we have seen so far this year."
