31. March 2019 by Zachary Shahan
I've been following Tesla closely for about 7 years. Secure predictions about Tesla's affordable death have been common for much longer than that. These have come from armchair auto experts, retired auto executives, non-retired auto execs, high-speed short sellers, low-rolling short sellers, clueless or pretending to be clueless TV hosts and journalists, paid trolls, and probably others I'm forgetting to honor here .
I'm not sure when the first condition of bankruptcy or start-up was made, but the start of a notorious "Tesla Death Watch" was May 1[ads1]9, 2008. Something crossed me recently – why not have fun with this endless hype? Why not play a little with the ongoing butter campaigns and have some good heart experience in the process?
The idea that appeared in my head was let's start a Tesla death anniversary !
The event idea is simple. We encourage all Tesla owners and fans to start or join the Tesla celebration on May 19, 2019. If you are interested in starting or joining with our support, skip to our contact form and select the option " I want to host or join a Tesla 11 year anniversary! "
If you're not sure yet, take the time to think about it – you have two and a half months to consider It and make plans. But seriously, come on, what is it to think about ?!
That's pretty much all there is to it. We will encourage hosts to focus on test stations and show off the overwhelming Tesla Model 3, Model X, Model S and Roadster, but it's really up to hosts and attendees to decide how to celebrate. You can host a house party, a pool party or a Tesla camping party.
You can start an epic sickness, organize a Tesla parade, schedule a dayless Tesla draw, or create a Tesla scavenger hunt.  You can have a frunkpuppy party, organize a day of pranks using Tesla Summon, or try to insert a record for the highest number of dance models Xs.
I'm sure there are many brilliant ideas. Tesla owners and fans could come up with celebrating Tesla's 11th day of death. The only thing I don't understand is why someone wouldn't host or join a Tesla death anniversary.
To get you in the mood, I am going to repost under three of my favorite articles from our Tesla Flashbacks series. Enjoy!
29. August 2018
Ten years ago, the now-fast CNBC didn't know Tesla from your mother. Fox News was busy complaining that Obama encouraged people to keep their tires inflated. Seeking Alpha? Well, I couldn't find a single Tesla story about Seeking Alpha published in August 2008. But some geniuses on a site called "The Truth About Cars" were on something. They published episode 17 of their "Tesla Death Watch."
Here is the core of the insightful post:
"They are on their way to their promised 100 cars a month. You know; when they get their transfer cuts together in October. Or from there. Or later. Meanwhile, according to a Tesla newsletter released on Wednesday night, the Lotus factory in Hethel, England, fifteen cars "ready to be sent" to CA sans batteries and powertrain. I admit it: Fifteen cars are fourteen more than I've built (don't ask) But have you seen Tesla's showroom? These Silicon Valley boys aren't exactly Scrooge McDuck when it comes to overhead. Even if you find every customer car at the new $ 120k price, it's just $ 1.8 million gross revenue. that each of these cars will end up costing Tesla money (to let David Brown's Aston Martin era)? Forget it. Saving the planet is a tough job, but some have to do it. "
Talk about some smart cakes , eh? They really saw what was up there. Tesla was convicted. It certainly couldn't build cars. And it didn't know how to handle money. And if Tesla builds cars, these cars would surely cost more to build and market than customers would pay for them. Well, bad – Tesla could have built some fun cars if it had survived.
Episode # 16 was published a week before. Here's an excerpt from it:
"Now, if Tesla can only amplify production, not" fad out ", keep the costs under control (have you seen the showroom?), Raise more money, build A more profitable product and avert competitors, we can get them by Death Watch. "
Ha. Good. Funny. Insightful. Spot on the money. Of course, Tesla couldn't do any of these things. Well the brave souls of "The Truth About Cars" called a spade a spade.
Oh, wait – Tesla didn't die in 2008?
Strangely, not only did it die, but some of the same contributors to the Death Watch blog continue to claim that Tesla will collapse some day. (Note: They no longer write on "The Truth About Cars." In fact, their credibility has graduated some of them into even larger websites.)
Here's a piece of a 2008 post from one of the thought-provoking critics who continues to Tesla Motors says 90 acres are secured between San Jose and Santa Clara, CA, to build their headquarters in the world. Oh, and the production facility for its (apparently) forthcoming Model S (no White Star) sedan. The announcement is to create all kinds of excitement among the people who use terms such as "green collar jobs" and "cleantech." "
The blogged crew also did some community services that admitted Megan Fox to talk about Tesla she would buy one day. "Anyway, your money isn't good at Tesla, Megan. And where's the story." That's right, it's just a dream, because Tesla can't build cars, you know?
Oh, I forgot a great episode. Back in July 2008 piggybacked the car guys on the always brilliant and helpful New York Times (yes, New York Times ). Here is a quote from the play in Times :
"Just because Tesla has succeeded in making an expensive electric sports car, it does not mean it will be able to make a moderately priced five-seater sedan. The latter is a quantum leap harder … David Cole, head of the Automotive Research Center, is another Tesla skeptic, for one thing, he says, the battery solution in the Roadster is unlikely to work in a heavier car. "He said," but they aren't ready for prime time. "Tesla's solution in the Roadster – linking thousands of small batteries to a giant – is" suboptimal ". added, "In difficulty, the construction of a sports car is a 2. Build a high-quality affordable car is a 10." … The more I prodded, the more skeptical I became. "
The truth of the car's boys would not be omitted of the intelligent forecasting, and added, "Join Joe Joe. And thank you for reading." Look, it's not just New York Timers that are clear. Even car boys can identify a joke when they see one. They can even write a good joke from time to time. Exhibition A:
Imagine "fraud" is a new favorite word of Tesla haters? Come on, this one is timeless! Well, it goes back at least as far as 2009.
"Gawker reports that Tesla spinmeister Daryl Siry left Silicon Valley startup because CEO Elon Musk (over) pushed to accept model S sedan deposits. Model S (aka WhiteStar ) exists only as a prototype.Tesla has no factory or finance to build it.When Musk announced that DOE would approve Tesla's loan record (they did not and probably did not) and decided to accept $ 40K Model S deposit (next month), Siry smelled scams and bailed. "Good thing Siry left back in 2009, before beating the fan and losing a ton money. (Complete disclosure: I never remember seeing Siry's name before, and I can definitely not verify if the claims above are valid. Anyway, it seems he came off the ship just before it burned and sank. Lucky him.)
Writer's historical end of this article: "Anecdotal evidence from the Tesla forums also indicates that the real winner here is:" Fisherman Karma. "
Ah, actually, Fisherman Karma.
To be fair, Fisherman may be back, and the author of this article is still warning that Tesla may collapse at any time.
A few months later, here's the title of another post on the Truth About the Cars Blog: "Tesla's Model S Ponzi Scheme Ranks in $ 2.6 Million. At least." The Ponzi Scheme – smart. Who could have imagined such a joke? I'm just honored to be alive at this time, to protect the literature, as it just rolls off the keyboards of today's Mark Twains and George Bernard Shaws.
Ok, it's 9 years ago, so maybe it's not super fresh anymore. But is it not relevant to infinity? We can throw "Ponzi" into Tesla coverage every single day forever.
Death Watch crew also found a letter from Tesla CEO & Chairman Elon Musk to employees returning in 2009 that can be transferred to today:
"This is why I am so worried about the continued leakage to the media. Really hurts free communication when even small issues are leaked and blown out of the relationship. It is nutty that a company like Tesla, which does very well right now (how many companies can say they are sold out in October?) should suffer from deceptive Articles on blog pages that would not have credibility but for an alleged in leak. The leaks are often not even accurate! "
Good thing the media got much better at not blowing minor issues out of proportion.
Next up is a good one in the end with today. The title is too perfect. Again, this story is from 2009 . Here it is: "Tesla requires profitability: do we believe in them?"
That's right – don't believe Elon Musk or anyone else from Tesla when they tell you to win or actually just started making a profit . Yes, scammers can be liars, and although liars can be profitable, a liar is a fraud and you just can't believe in liars and scammers when they tell you they are profitable.
By the way, if you dare to enter the comments of some of the stories that are linked, you will find the early gems of discussions that are still taking place today on Twitter, Search Alpha, CNBC, and even under some CleanTechnica articles. It's as if nothing has changed.
Don't forget that Tesla went from building a handful of Roadsters to producing about 20,000 cars a month, or a speed of 240,000 cars a year.
Oh, wow, are you still here? As a reward for endurance, I spent some time trying to find my first article on Tesla. We started covering Tesla here at CleanTechnica in March 2009 with the article "The new Tesla Model S is … very sexy", but my first article about the company was not written until May 2012 when I published "Tesla Motors to Start Delivering Model S June 22. "It was just over 6 years ago – but it certainly feels like decades.
This was a quote from Elon Musk back in May 2012 article: "In 2006 Our plan was to build an electric sports car followed by a reasonably electric sedan and reduce our dependence on oil. S is an important part of that plan and represents Tesla's transition to a mass-production automaker and the most compelling 21st-century car company. "Big plans. Many were laughing. Who is laughing now?
12. January 2019
I was looking for old information about Model X on Friday, and I stumbled upon interesting old news that made me reflect on Tesla's development. Then I stumbled over more. And more. So I ended up deciding to put this piece together on some Tesla news flashbacks.
Back in 2009, a prominent auto journalist bet Elon Musk $ 1 million that Tesla could not roll out the model S by the end of 2012 with the specifications presented. Tesla did. Elon donated $ 1 million to charity anyway.
Back in 2010, Toyota & Tesla announced that they would merge on an affordable electric car. Confused? It was the Toyota RAV4 EV, which had Tesla internals and a Toyota exterior. It was a well-loved car of the few who got one for their garages, but not many states, even less than other countries.
In 2011, Tesla expected that it would sell 30,000-35,000 Model S and Model X cars combined each year. Tesla now sells 100,000 a year.
Also in 2011 Elon Musk projected that Tesla would show quarterly results in 2013. ( Snicker, snicker. ) It did. 19659005] Back in 2012, Tesla was very excited because it got 500 Model X reservations for 4 days! (Seriously.) My, how times have changed!
Back in late 2012, Tesla opened its first two Superchargers on the eastern coast of the United States.
In January 2013, we found that Tesla had the trademark "Model Y", which would mean that Tesla's future vehicle series would be SEXY (then it was expected that Tesla Model 3 would be Tesla Model E … before Ford blocked it which happens).
Also back In 2013, Tesla announced that it was delaying the release of Model X almost a year … because the Model S was so popular. This is something that has long been forgotten or overlooked, but it was an early sign that Tesla's vehicle requirements were much larger than just about all expected.
A few weeks later, Tesla proudly announced that it was producing a Japanese 500 model's sedans per week. Wow! (Okay, I'm making fun now, but it was a great milestone and a multi-year series of milestones like what led us to today. Perhaps it won't be so long before 90,000 Teslas a quarter seems like frieze, and even fun. )
Also in 2013, Elon Musk said that the company's fourth model (which had not been named model 3) would be released by 2017. Many Tesla critics laughed at it as an absurdity. Tesla actually released the fourth model in 2017.
Also in 2013, we started to get words that Tesla Model S shattered the big luxury car competition in the US. Of course, the claims of Tesla critics and shorts were again that the high demand was just a blip, a short-term thing, and that demand began to fall, and Tesla would soon come in for a major injury. In fact, Model S continued to dominate the large luxury car segment and continued to hold the # 1 spot in 2018 – with a wide margin.
In January 2014, I summed up the 13 electric vehicles that come to Market that year in the US and Europe, BMW I3, BMW i8, Tesla Model X, Volkswagen e-Up !, Volkswagen e-Golf, Cadillac ELR, Kia Soul EV, Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric, Porsche Panamera Plug – in the S E-Hybrid, Nissan e-NV200, and three Via Motors models (which never came to the consumer market). My, how times have changed!
I recently had fun digging up old Tesla news and putting it in context with the company's progress so far, which can make it fascinating. I have also elaborated on 11 years of hyped up FUD about Tesla and claim that there are imminent deaths in the past decade. And I have explored 8 "impossible" goals the company has achieved. However, I forgot that a reader sent a list of their own favorite reminders back in October. It's also a great list, so I'm writing about it here for another round of "Tesla Flashbacks."
In 2012, an IHS analyst seemed to turn off the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) related to the idea of Tesla drape before anyone I know about the cast idea. He said, "several factors remain what work against the company, not least which is a major competition disadvantage against the efforts of major automakers, despite the massive influx of cash Tesla has had.
" $ 57,400 and -up
$ 64.900-up 2012 Tesla Model S will be a curious proposal for a luxury car buyer. It goes into a segment (medium-sized luxury sports sedans) that does not see large volumes – and one where brand loyalty tends to be strong.
"Tesla likes to suggest that model S is unique and will set itself apart from competition that includes stalwarts such as the BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E Class and a dozen other models.
" Maybe it – if Tesla's sales targets are not very ambitious, they could be met. It is possible to sell a few thousand of something in this country, on the news value alone. IHS Automotive forecasts that if Tesla can make the car market, it will likely sell at least a few thousand.
"But the idea that Tesla could sell tens of thousands of Model S sedans in the United States is folly. The most popular vehicles in that segment are selling only a few tens of thousands themselves, with some models Audi A6, Jaguar XF, Lexus GS well below. 10,000 sales a year.
"Remember that hybrid cars themselves, which are far easier to own and operate than pure electric cars, are still only 2 to 3 percent of the total US market. And a new Deloitte & Touche survey suggests that if car buyers actually want electrified vehicles, it's still a matter of debate. "
Folly indeed. Was that man really paid for his analysis? Well, of course, he was, as there were countless other analysts who said the same thing.
I must admit – I have been on a series of conference talks with industry analysts there I was obviously in an extreme corner and basically being the "pro-Tesla" voice in the debate, as it turns out, my points have far more fruit than the others I have heard over the years.
I The same interview, however, marked the analyst Tesla's impressive level of vertical integration and self-production. "I was not aware of how much of the technology in model S was developed internally.
"Tesla does almost everything on model S itself. The exceptions are some of the more difficult bits, like pedal box and steering column, as it comes from Daimler. Tesla even makes his own molded plastic parts, using machines left by Toyota on Fremont, California, assembly plant. "
That housing and ingenuity led the analyst to believe that Tesla had a better chance of survival than he once thought.
"I still believe that Tesla as a car manufacturer must have a partner to survive long-term, but it has actually shown that there may be partners who are interested in further context and that selling their own cars is not the only avenue to make money.
"I am, however, skeptical about the market chances for Model S and the actual demand for a $ 57 400 plus $ 65,000 plus all-electric sedan from a relatively unknown brand, compared to the modern and future competition. "
In 2014, CNN Business / CNN Money came to the brilliant conclusion that the Tesla sales were cooled." Tesla forecast that it would sell 35,000 of model S worldwide in 2014, but sales force Autodata estimates that sales in the US in the first quarter increased by less than 1%. … Investors are increasingly concerned with a decline in 2014 North American deliveries, according to Adam Jonas, auto analyst with Morgan Stanley. "Global Model S sales are now ~ 50,000 a year, as for Model X sales, and Model 3 sales are much higher. These nail-biting analysts seem to have worried about nothing.
In April 2015, a technical journalist offered a rather funny take on the Model S compared to new plug-ins from BMW, drove a BMW i8 for a week and received a lot of attention for it, and he did not get any attention from Tesla Drivers, and then came to some strange conclusions about it. "However, there was a curious exception to all this techno-worship: drivers of the Tesla Model S. Others rolled down a window, snapped a picture, or just asked what it was . I shared some fist holes with owners of the BMW i3 and even the Chevy Volt, two other electric cars. But the Tesla drivers avoided eye contact. I discovered two or three dozen within a week, but no model S driver ever recognized my car's existence – a rubbish security was inevitable. Tesla Motors practically invented the concept of eco-supercar – at least at the consumer level – and it has dominated the sector for three years. But next to BMW's i8, Tesla wears patina of age. "
Haha. The author really believed Model S drivers didn't look at him or i8 out of uncertainty? They probably didn't recognize i8 because it didn't compare to a model S in many important ways. It helps explain why historical sales i8 looks like a dirt next to the ground of model S sales to date.
Continues: "But BMW's i-series, launched in Germany at the end of 2013, has wiped out no doubt whether Germany will be a competitor in what I call the big race for electrification. In fact, although Porsche sells plug-in versions of Panamera and Cayenne SUV, i8 is probably the first real challenger to Tesla's eco-chic Model S. "I could make a sales chart to demonstrate how ridiculous that idea was, but honestly, is not even worth the time.I8 is a nice car and is fun in its own way, but there is no model S competitor and has never had a chance to be one. (For the post I own a BMW i3 and love it, and love the style of i8, but the reason i have an i3 is that the selling price of the used market was so far below the original MSRP that it felt like a steal for such a fun car. It was also the first electric car I drove and I suppose there is something like "first love" there for me.)
In a 2015 article on BMWBlog that will of course be pro BMW), the author was enthusiastically covered by an experimental BMW plug -in hybrid with power sources. He wrote, "Now if / when Elon Musk hears About this, he will inevitably point to the fact that not only is "The Thing" experimental, and he also has experimental projects, but that "The Thing" uses a petrol engine in tandem with electricity while Model S does not. However, I think it is a selling point for BMW's technology as above model S. Plug-in hybrids provide more flexibility as they can be filled with gasoline as needed, so that anxiety no longer exists. Although Mr. Musk claims to eliminate range anxiety, there is simply no scenario where a clean electric car has the reach of a plug-in hybrid. "
If you read CleanTechnica regularly, a certain story I published last weekend may have popped in your mind to read it. It turns out that Tesla sold more model 3s in 2018 in the US than all other car manufacturers Sold all its plug-in hybrids, model 3 not only broke BMW's plug-in hybrid models, it broke BMW's + GM's + Fords + Daimler's + Toyota's + Honda's + Chrysler's # 39; s + Mitsubishi + Hyundai's + Kia's + Volkswagen's + Audi's Tell Me Again, How a Plug-In Hybrid Drives Compete Against a Good Designed Full Electric Drive Unit
In August 2015, Reuters hyped that "Silicon Valley automaker is losing more than $ 4,000 on every model S-electric sedan it sells, by to expect operating losses, and it burned $ 359 million in cash last year in a luxury car bull market. "It was, of course, a misrepresentation of the story, or a misleading way of communicating what the company did. Tesla sold thousands of Model Ss per month, each making the company money. (In fact, Tesla has long had quite high gross margins on model S.) At the same time, Tesla invested a lot of money in rapid growth, continuous development that would lead to where it is today – selling tens of thousands of cars a month and profitable.
Do not go back beyond February 2016, we must quit With one of our favorites, it would be Bob Lutz, former vice president of GM (among others), claiming that Tesla Model X would be impossible to build, and that Tesla's entire business model was not reasonable. "Tesla's business model is upside down. "Their costs have always been higher than their income," Lutz told CNBC. "They must always get more capital, so they burn through it.
"While [Tesla’s] car is excellent, the business has always been miserable. Now it's super miserable because the generic demand for electric vehicles is down. And here's why this should kill Tesla: whether it's consumer demand for electric cars out there or not, the big OEMs like Ford, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen … they have to build electric cars – a certain number – to satisfy requirements in about half of the states. No longer selling SUVs and full-size pickups and the money they really earn, it's going to lower the prices of electric vehicles in general. …
"Model X seems to be unsustainable with the automatic gold-wing doors, like all in the industry always said, shouldn't work. "
The year before, Lutz said that Tesla met" [the] Trifel of the judgment … bleeding cash, securitized assets and fitting fixtures. "
Shhh, no one tells Bob that Tesla now massages produces Model X (sells ~ 50,000 a year), the death and profitability took its place, other automakers still do not compete with Tesla, the demand for electric cars has risen rather than declined, and Tesla's business model seems to be very right up.
Okay, let's just be a moment – it was easy not to understand Tesla's benefit and intrinsic skill back in the day, or a few years ago. How can everyone know what Tesla were able and why the vehicles were and would be so much more competitive than the other automakers? Well, many followers understood all this, they were often called brainless, Kool-Aid drinking, cult-fanboys, and they were discounted by analysts and " auto experts. "They were pushed into a dark corner of most media. (Actually, it's hard to think of any big media that didn't assume we belonged to a dark corner.) The benefits of the specifications, in a well-designed electric power unit, in a fully electric corporate focus in constant hardware and software innovation in rapid development cycles, in Tesla's core component encapsulation, and so on. But we were just fanboys. What more do we want to say?
Perhaps with this next round of Tesla goals, it is time for the big media to spend time learning from the people who know the most about Tesla and can give an independent voice to the company without throwing in unwarranted pessimism. Or just keep doing what you have done.