Trump's public warning to Huawei comes at the worst possible time

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As if perfectly choreographed, Huawei on the same day launched its internal operating system HarmonyOS – launched as an alternative to Google Android gave President Trump issues a public reality check to demonstrate how much the Shenzhen giant needs its independence from US technology, but the problem for Huawei is that despite the rhetoric, HarmonyOS has failed to deliver that independence, at least not in terms of major The company needs Google as much as ever, and in the real world, US future Huawei devices deny access to low-fat Android a problem that will cause panic in China.

Hours after Richard Yu ̵[ads1]1; CEO of Huawei & # 39 ; s Consumer Business Group – told an audience at the company's developer conference in Dongguan all about HarmonyOS, Trump told reporters outside the White House that "we're coming is not going to do business with Huawei – that does not mean we will not agree on anything if and when we make a trade agreement, but we will not do business with Huawei. "

Ever since Trump signed a blacklist for executive order Huawei in May, the analysis has focused on the impact on the company's smartphone business. Last year, Huawei took over Apple as the world's second-largest smartphone shipment (by number, not value), and Samsung's top track was The US blacklisting was intended to limit Huawei's dominant position in 5G networking equipment, but it quickly became clear that consumer activity would be hit harder and faster, and suddenly the globally integrated Android ecosystem would allow Huawei to drive global growth through access to standard software and services from benefit to curse.

Almost immediately after the blacklist was announced, Huawei's Yu argued that a new operating system was in operation, an Android alternative that would make everything Android could do – only better. Backed by positive reports from China's state-controlled media, the world was waiting for The launch of this exciting new platform, expected to be available later this year or early next. But then Trump met with China's President Xi at the G20 in Osaka and announced that Huawei restrictions would be relaxed where national security was not a major concern – read smartphones.

And then Shenzhen breathed a sigh of relief and CEO Ren Zhengfei acknowledged that the new OS was actually an IoT platform and, after all, "not designed for phones that everyone thinks". This was supported by board member Catherine Chen, who told reporters that "the company intends to continue using Google's Android operating system for its smartphones." OS "is for industrial use – Huawei intends to continue using Android & lsqb; on smartphones & rsqb;"

But it was good. After the G20 detective, the supply chain looked back on the track. And while the blacklist remained in place, the Commerce Department urged US companies to apply for exemption licenses that would be tracked quickly.

Everyone is changing now. In line with the President's Friday comments, Bloomberg reported that the United States, after all, is not speeding these exemption licenses. The more than 50 requests received so far are still ongoing. Even worse, just a few days earlier, the US administration confirmed a federal ban on the purchase of Chinese technology from companies deemed too close to the Beijing-Huawei government.

In the announcement of HarmonyOS to the world, Yu explained that this was an "OS that supports all scenarios, which can be used on a wide range of devices and platforms, and that can meet consumer demand for low latency and strong security – HarmonyOS is completely different from Android and iOS, "he said," providing a smooth experience across all scenarios – it has reliable and secure architecture and seamlessly supports cross-device collaboration. You can develop your apps once, and then deploy them flexible across a variety of devices. "

As I reported at the time, "the world wanted smartphone news. What they received instead was an announcement about smart watches, smart screens, in-car systems and smart speakers."

Yu argued that Huawei's smartphones can "switch to Harmony when we can't use Android – it's not that difficult." But that is highly unlikely. The company's executives have admitted it is another type of platform, and while the operating system can of course be adapted to run on a small display device, that is not the point. Smartphones work in a certain way, they thrive on an app ecosystem and common sets of software and services. An ecosystem, Ren acknowledged a few weeks ago, which would take Huawei years to recreate. There is no short term Plan-B.

After Osaka, after the open concessions from Huawei's execs, I commented that the stakes were suddenly very high for the company. If Trump turned around again, if Google was pulled from the company, the myth of a quick Android replacement would be difficult to rejuvenate. And here we are. Nothing will happen in the short term. Devices have been launched and products stored.

Huawei is going to enjoy another amazing year of smartphone growth. But in parallel with a successful second half of 2019 on the sales front, analysts will be watching closely how the company maneuvers around US restrictions and what actually happens when HarmonyOS-branded devices hit the Chinese market, which can't access full-fat Android and now dominated by Huawei devices.

So Friday, a day of perfect choreography, has changed the dynamic between Huawei and the United States and the rest of the world once again. Next week we can get a better idea of ​​what will actually happen next.

Huawei was sought out for all comments on this story.

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As if perfectly choreographed, the same day Huawei launched the HarmonyOS internal operating system – launched as an alternative to Google Android, President Trump issued a public reality check for to demonstrate how much the Shenzhen giant needs its independence from US technology, but for Huawei, despite the rhetoric, HarmonyOS does not deliver that independence, at least not for important smartphones, and the company needs Google as much as ever. The Real World Denies US Future Huawei Devices Access to Fat Android is a problem that will cause panic in China.

Hours after Richard Yu – CEO of Huawei's Consumer Business Group – told an audience at the company's developer conference in Dongguan all about Have monyOS, Trump told reporters outside the White House that "we're not going to do business with Huawei – it's b It does not mean that we will not agree on anything if and when we make a trade agreement, but we will not do business with Huawei. "

Ever since Trump signed a blacklist of executive orders Huawei in May, the analysis has focused on the impact on the company's smartphone business. Last year, Huawei took over Apple as the world's second-largest smartphone shipment (by number, not value), and Samsung's top track was in sight, the US blacklisting was intended to limit Huawei's dominant position in 5G network equipment, but it quickly became clear that consumer business would be hit harder and faster, and suddenly the globally integrated Android ecosystem that had made enabled Huawei to drive global growth through access to standard software and services from benefit to curse.

Almost immediately after the blacklisting was announced, Huawei's Yu argued that a new operating system was in operation, an Android alternative which would do everything Android could do – only better. Backed by positive reports from China's state-controlled media, expected the launch of this exciting new platform, which is expected to be available later this year or early next. But then Trump met with China's President Xi at the G20 in Osaka and announced that Huawei restrictions would be relaxed where national security was not a major concern – read smartphones.

And then Shenzhen breathed a sigh of relief and CEO Ren Zhengfei acknowledged that the new OS was actually an IoT platform and, after all, "not designed for phones that everyone thinks". This was supported by board member Catherine Chen, who told reporters that "the company intends to continue using Google's Android operating system for its smartphones." OS "is for industrial use – Huawei intends to continue using Android [on smartphones]."

But it was good. After the G20 detective, the supply chain looked back on the track. And while the blacklist remained in place, the Commerce Department urged US companies to apply for exemption licenses that would be tracked quickly.

Everyone is changing now. In line with the president's comments on Friday, Bloomberg has reported that the United States, after all, is not speeding these exemption licenses. The more than 50 requests received so far are still ongoing. Even worse, just a few days earlier, the US administration confirmed a federal ban on the purchase of Chinese technologies from companies deemed too close to the Beijing – Huawei government.

Announcing HarmonyOS to the world, Yu explained that this was an "OS that supports all scenarios, which can be used on a wide range of devices and platforms, and that can meet consumer demand for low latency and strong security – HarmonyOS is completely different from Android and iOS, "he said," providing a smooth experience across all scenarios – it has reliable and secure architecture and seamlessly supports cross-device collaboration. You can develop your apps once and then distribute them on a number of different devices. "

As I reported back then," the world wanted what they received instead was a announcement about smart watches, smart screens, vehicle systems and smart speakers. "

Yu claimed that Huawei's smartphones can "sw itching to Harmony when we can't use Android – it's not that hard." But it's highly unlikely. The company's executives have admitted it is another type of platform, and while the operating system can of course be adapted to run on a small display device, that is not the point. Smartphones work in a certain way, they thrive on an app ecosystem and common sets of software and services. An ecosystem, Ren acknowledged a few weeks ago, which would take Huawei years to recreate. There is no short term Plan-B.

After Osaka, after the open concessions from Huawei's execs, I commented that the stakes were suddenly very high for the company. If Trump turned around again, if Google was pulled from the company, the myth of a quick Android replacement would be difficult to rejuvenate. And here we are. Nothing will happen in the short term. Devices have been launched and products stored.

Huawei is going to enjoy another amazing year of smartphone growth. But in parallel with a successful second half of 2019 on the sales front, analysts will be watching closely how the company maneuvers around US restrictions and what actually happens when HarmonyOS-branded devices hit the Chinese market, which can't access full-fat Android and now dominated by Huawei devices.

So Friday, a day of perfect choreography, has changed the dynamic between Huawei and the United States and the rest of the world once again. Next week we can get a better idea of ​​what will actually happen next.

Huawei was contacted for all comments on this story.