Trump-Xi diner will be a water area for markets
What are the results of the meeting
Evercore ISI believes there are three outcomes for this week's meeting between Trump and Xi.
The most important thing is that Trump announces that he will hold on to China tariffs indefinitely and start trading again. They see it as a 45% probability.
This would generally be good for markets, but the uncertainty about how long conversations could go would undermine enthusiasm and lead to more volatility.
A better scenario would be something similar, but with a fixed timeline, like 90 days. They see this as a 35% probability. This will give the markets a chance to "breathe" they say and take advantage of trading-sensitive sectors.
The final result will not be any specific reviews of tariff delays. They see this as a 20% probability, and that would stoke fear. It will result in a statement saying that the two sides would "maintain communication," but would involve more charges to come.
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