"Most economists actually say we're not going to have a recession," Trump told reporters in New Jersey Sunday. "Most of them say we don't want a recession, but the rest of the world is not doing well as we do."
As he begins an effort to define the economy and secure himself in a recession, Trump is testing a scary, materialistic message for voters that could make him tough if things get tougher at times.
"Lowest unemployment ever in almost all categories. Famous for big growth after trade deals are completed. Import prices down, China and things Tariffs. Help targeted farmers from big tolls coming in. Great future for the United States!" Trump tweeted. The president knows that a recession ahead of an election can spell disaster for those in attendance. For example, Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush could partly blame the reelection loss on poor financial performance at the wrong moment.
The economy may be more important to Trump than it is for other presidents given that its current health is one of the few policy areas where polls show that he has majority support.
"We don't know yet, are we heading for a recession? That's not my base scenario," Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNN's Brianna Keilar on Friday. "But the risk has increased quite a bit."
How a recession can make the 2020 campaign even more toxic
If a recession materializes to threaten Trump's reelection, he can be expected to call the toxicity into a campaign in which he has already used the most strenuous rhetoric and demagoguery seen in top-level politics for generations.
A recession would also transform the Democratic White House. So far, candidates have mainly argued that the wealth created in the Trump economy has not been widely shared and has been vulnerable to facts about the lowest half-century unemployment and broad public satisfaction with the economy.
But they are also now grasping for signs that Trump's worsening trade war with China is hampering global sentiment.
"It is … a fool's honor to believe that you will be able to make China change the principles of its economic model by look them in the eyes of tariffs, Democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg said Sunday in an exclusive interview with Jake Tapper about CNN's "State of the Union."
"There are some basic facts you can't escape, one of them is that American Farmers are killed, "said Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
If the economy stumbles, Democrats would quickly turn to a complete attack on Republican economic leadership – including high deficits and the GOP tax reform bill – no matter what Trump has. registered in recent years.
Recent polls reveal Trump's political risk factors and begin to hint at public turmoil over how he handles financial issues – one of the few policy areas in which he has had more numbers of voters' trusts e.
Trump's overall approval rating in the poll was 43%, suggesting that a significant minority of Americans still like the Trump economy – even if they don't like him.
If he cannot persuade these voters to swallow their greater doubts and support him in November 2020, his narrow path to re-election could disappear altogether.
So it's not surprising that CNN and other media organizations last week cited sources that said Trump is increasingly worried about the economy after a week of gloomy forecasts.
"You have no choice but to vote for me, because (if) your 401 (k) is down the tubes, everything is down the tubes, "Trump said in Manchester, New Hampshire, Thursday. "So whether you love me or hate me, you have to vote for me."
Earlier, Trump had told reporters that economic growth would end if he were left out of the White House after four years.
"The fact that I won lifted our economy greatly. And if I didn't win, it would go down," Trump said. "And frankly, if for some reason you happened in the 2020 election, you will see this economy go down the pipes. I will tell you right now."
Trump Team Announces Coordinated Economic Optimism  Trump's top economic advisers sent a coordinated signal of brash optimism about the economy on Sunday, perhaps meant just as much for a revered president as outside consumption.
"No, I don't see a recession. And let me add just one topic … Only one theme. We are doing pretty well, in my opinion. Let don't be afraid of optimism, "Larry Kudlow, White House's chief financial adviser, told NBC's" Meet the Press. "
Peter Navarro, Trump's top White House adviser, denied that the trade war hurt Americans, said it seriously harmed China, calling the Trump economy "the best game on the planet."
Speaking to Tapper about the "State of the Union", Navarro also accused the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell of "suppressing" Investment and Export.
"The Federal Reserve chairman should look in the mirror and say" I raised rates too far, too fast, and I cost this economy a full percentage growth, "Navarro said.