Trump fears political price from oil peck, market crisis
Both crises will test Trump's ability to work its will at the world stage, as well as the strategic viability of its "America First" foreign policy. A tariff match with China is to mark a growing great power rivalry. And Russia's role as a top energy producer with great interest in putting global oil prices could open new fronts in an expanded confrontation between Washington and Moscow.
The president's Twitter account is usually a reliable guide to his frustrations and complaints, and apart from a tribute to George HW Bush on the day of the funeral, Trumps fed concerns on market-leading events Wednesday.
He effectively dared the ministers of the Vienna OPEC meeting not to cut production, a move that could reverse a period of lower oil prices and compromise the effectiveness of new US sanctions imposed as part of a new hardline policy against Iran.
"Hopefully, OPEC will keep oil flows as it's not limited. The world does not want to see or need higher oil prices!" Trump wrote.
But most analysts expect OPEC to reduce production by up to 1[ads1].5 million barrels a day to reverse a glut that is partly triggered by a former US request to pump more oil as a pillow against the impact of the new sanctions on Iran .
Such a move could not only give rise to further volatility in global markets, which could push up gas prices in the United States, and a period of lower pump prices was especially welcomed by lower income workers in rural areas, the key to Trump's political base.
An OPEC production decline can also cast doubt on the effectiveness of one of Trump's most controversial foreign policy features – keeping Saudi Arabia close despite the suspected role of the kingdoms crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, in the murder of Washington Post -kolon Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey.
Trump is under extreme pressure in Congress to stand by MBS, and the support is based among lawmakers for banning arms sales and new sanctions against kin ngdom. However, Trump has partially justified refusing to cut the saudia by noting their importance in global oil markets.
"Oil prices are getting lower. Great! As a big tax cut for America and the World. New! $ 54, just $ 82. Thanks to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!" Trump tweeted on November 21st.
Standing at Saudis
"We will not give up hundreds of millions of dollars in order and let Russia and China have them … it's a very simple equation for me. I'll make America well again," said the president.
But Trumps domestic exposure to Saudi Arabia is getting worse.
Top Trump Allied South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham accused Saudis of being a "destructive bullet" threatening US security interests in the region.
Democrats are planning to investigate any economic relations between Trump and Saudi authorities when they take control of the House of Representatives in January.
MBS may feel retained in US requests to limit the decomposition of oil production, given the president's public and constant support at a time when the Saudi prince was poured out worldwide. But even though it is hugely influential, Saudi Arabia can not control what OPEC does.
The oil producing Canadian province of Alberta has announced that it will cut production to reverse the ban that has lowered Canadian raw prices.
Another important influence in OPEC is Russia, which is not a member of the organization, but has shown that it is willing to join a cuts in production.
Given the importance of high oil prices to Russia's economy and increasing geopolitical tribes with the United States, exacerbated by Trump's decision to cancel a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Argentina this weekend, Moscow may not be in the mood to throw America a political leg.
Trump also anxious for China duel
The oil price puzzle and the temporary end of a tariff crisis that Trump negotiated with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 summit, exemplifies the gamble Trump often takes with its unorthodox global leadership.
A deeper trade war with China and rising oil prices, as opposed to US demands, could have bankruptcies that could weaken Trump's political support, his argument that Americans are better in their leadership and hurt strong economic growth –
China's reprisals to Billions of dollars in tariffs imposed on exports have in designing disproportionately targeted areas such as Trump expects support in 2020, including agricultural land like Iowa as he won in 2016.
So while lambasting China on the campaign track and accusing the Asian giant to steal US industrial jobs made for a strong message in the Midwest, the measures Trump used to make good on their promises, had a political cost. 19659002] Trumps Twitter feed again betrays its current obsessions – he has tweeted about his trade with Xi seven times over the last 36 hours. His efforts were part of an injunction control bid by the president and other senior officials to strengthen an agreement with the Chinese who seems to be even less extensive than it originated.
"Very strong signals are being sent by China once they returned home from their long trip, including stops, from Argentina," Trump tweeted on Tuesday.
"Not to be heard naively or something, but I think President Xi meant every word of what he said at our long and hopefully historic meeting. ALL topics discussed!"
Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 800 points on its last trading day on Tuesday, when investors realized that the deal between Trump and Xi could not ward off hostilities for a long time.
"This tariff situation is still awaiting the market," said JJ Kinahan, Market Director at TD Ameritrade, CNN on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, however, China moved to relieve some of these concerns after it had begun giving details of what it had registered to rattle the markets and anger Trump.
Beijing acknowledged a 90-day clock for conversations and confirmed its willingness to implement "already agreed specific points as quickly as possible" a move that Trump noted when tweeted about "very strong signals."
The White House also says that the deal with Xi wants to see China buy large amounts of US agricultural products to close the trade deficit and include an agreement from Beijing to limit the transfer of fentanyl, a powerful opioid, to the United States.
In return, Trump agreed to abide by plans to raise all current rates to 25% on January 1.
Having often talked about a bullshit in most of the first two years of his presidency, Trump has shown new signs of concern about the optics of wiping out stock markets that have now given up most of this year's Ains.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Trump had soured on Secretary of State Steven Mnuchin partly due to stock market volatility, his support for Federal Reserve rapporteur Jerome Powell and a more reconciliation approach to China than some Hawaiian White House advisors.
Trump denied the report, but it was expressed that the president is increasingly concerned with how the economic turbulence abroad could weaken its political viability at home.
