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This weekend's customs rates are not like the others



If you read this on Sunday, the US and China trade wars have just escalated again. Overnight, 15% of US customs duties for Chinese goods started at an estimated value of $ 110 billion, similar to Beijing's retaliatory tariffs for about 75 billion US goods.

The world has already lived through two rounds of US tariff increases and Chinese retaliation. But this weekend's tariff rates, along with another round that has been delayed until December 15, are different than those that came before, according to Aditya Bhave, world economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"For previous rounds of tariffs, it was clearly an attempt to stay away from consumer goods," Bhave said. "Now they run out of non-consumer goods."

Popular merchandise such as laptops, footwear and toys This could hit consumer confidence in a delicate moment for the US economy, when spending offsets softness in the industrial sector.

JPMorgan Chase has predicted that US tariffs imposed on China have already cost the average US household $ 600 a year This will rise to $ 1

,000 after the September and December tariffs come into effect, according to the bank.

The December portion is particularly risky, Bhave points out, because, unlike previous rounds, there are few alternative countries that US companies can import the products in question. China accounts for more than 80% of US imports of these goods.

What it means: Companies will not ke could shield customers by switching supplier. Instead, they will likely need to pass on the extra costs.

See also: These tariffs will also hit China hard, Bhave said. "They have a pretty high capacity to take pain, but that doesn't mean they don't hurt," he said. Keep track of the manufacturing sector, private investment and consumer confidence – as well as any announcements of fresh public spending.

Brexit is about to even rotate

UK lawmakers are coming back from the summer holidays, which means the Brexit fight is about to become a notch. Look for more volatility in the pound ahead.

  Brexit is back, and investors should buckle up

Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave a shock last week when He asked the Queen to suspend Parliament for about five weeks – the longest suspension in decades – just like the October 31 Brexit deadline looms.

Now, just a few days before the suspension, lawmakers have introduced legislation that would prevent a messy exit from the EU without an agreement to protect trade. They will try to do it this week.

A legal challenge to Johnson's maneuver will also continue this week in Scotland. A former British prime minister has joined a separate lawsuit to stop the move.

Meanwhile, Brexit dealers are continuing discussions with their European counterparts. Downing Street has said they will meet at least twice a week in September.

Remember: A disorderly Brexit poses great risks to the UK economy and its trading partners. Germany, which is on the brink of recession, follows developments closely.

US economy gets a reality check for the third quarter

Now a broadcast from my CNN Business colleague Anneken Tappe in New York is on a big week with US economic indicators:

"Concerns for the future of the US economy reappeared in August when the inversion of the Treasury yield curve flashed a recession warning.

GDP growth in the second quarter was revised down to 2% from 2.1% last week, and while the US consumer is still appearing strong in the face of a deteriorating manufacturing sector, Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index recorded its biggest monthly decline since December 2012, thanks to the trade war. [19659002] If consumers help back spending on the back of Washington's trading tactics, the economy may feel some serious pain. [19659003] Financial data for the coming week should provide more insight into where we are in the third quarter August The ISM index for August is expected on Tuesday. But the biggest calendar entry is Friday's work report.

Consensus estimates put wage solutions that are not farms at 159,000, slightly below the July level, but still strong. Unemployment is expected to be 3.7%. "

Next

Monday: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing Index; UK Parliament returns

Wednesday: US trade balance; Australia Q2 GDP; Canada interest rate decision; American Eagle and Slack earnings

Thursday: US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index; CrowdStrike and Lululemon revenue

Friday: United States Labor Report from August


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