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Business

The US, UK, Europe, Japan will be in recession for the next 12 months: Nomura




Many of the world’s leading economies will fall into a recession over the next 12 months as central banks move to tighten monetary policy aggressively to fight rising inflation, according to the chief economist at brokerage firm Nomura Holdings.

“Right now, central banks have moved many of them to essentially a single mandate – and that is to bring down inflation. The credibility of monetary policy is too valuable a resource to lose. So they are going to be very aggressive,”[ads1]; Rob Subbaraman said. who is also the leader of global market research, Asia ex-Japan, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Tuesday.

“This means increases in frontloads. We have been pointing to the risk of a recession for several months, and we have bitten the bullet. And now we have many of the developed economies that are actually falling into recession,” he added.

In addition to the US, Nomura expects downturns in the eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada next year, the brokerage firm said in a research note.

Another thing I point out when you have many economies weakening, you can not rely on exports for growth. There is another reason why we think this recession risk is very real and is likely to happen.

Rob Subbaraman

chief economist, Nomura

Central banks around the world kept “super monetary policy” in place for too long, hoping that inflation would be temporary, Subbaraman said. “Now governments must play catch-up and try to regain control of the inflation narrative,” he told CNBC.

“Another thing I point out is when you have a lot of economies that are weakening, you can not rely on exports for growth. There is another reason why we think this recession risk is very real and is likely to happen,” Subbaraman said.

American recession: shallow but long

In the US, Nomura predicts a shallow but long recession of five quarters from the last quarter of 2022.

Thomas Calomiris, a third-generation manufacturer of products, weighs an onion in the Eastern Market while the United States struggles with rising inflation on May 20, 2022 in Washington, DC.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty pictures

“The United States will fall into recession – so negative GDP growth from quarter to quarter from the 4th quarter of this year. There will be a shallow recession, but long. We have the one that lasts for five quarters in a row,” in Subbaraman.

The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are among those trying to curb record high inflation with interest rate increases.

The Fed raised its reference rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.5% -1.75% in June, and Chairman of the Board Jerome Powell has indicated that there may be a new increase of 50 or 75 basis points in July.

“The Fed will tighten in this recession, and that’s because we look at inflation as sticky – it’s going to stay high. It’s going to be difficult to get down,” Subbaraman noted.

“We have Fed hiking 75 [basis points] in July and then 50 at the next meeting, “said the economist, outlining Nomura’s predictions.” Then a series of 25 [basis points] until it receives the Fed Funds interest rate of 3.75% by February next year. “

Risks to medium-sized economies

In the research note, Nomura emphasized several medium-sized economies – including Australia, Canada and South Korea – which have had a debt-driven housing boom. They are in danger of deeper downturns than expected if interest rate increases trigger house breaks and mortgaging, the report states.

“The strange thing is China, which is recovering from the recession as the economy unlocks in the midst of a accommodative policy, although it is in danger of renewed shutdowns and a new recession, as long as Beijing maintains its zero- Covid strategy, “the memo states.

“If central banks do not tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down now, the pain for the economy is moving to a high-inflation regime,” and being stuck there is far greater, Subbaraman warned.

This will lead to wage price spirals, which will be “even more painful for the economy and for the man and woman on the street in the long run,” he added.

“It’s hard to say this nicely … getting that pain in advance and getting inflation down is better for the world economy and society than actually letting inflation get out of control, as we learned in the 1970s.”



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