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The US delisting risk for Chinese ADR shares is halved following the agreement




The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board announced on Friday that both sides signed an agreement on cooperation in inspecting the audit working papers of US-listed Chinese companies. Pictured here is the CSRC building in Beijing in 2020.

Emmanuel Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images

BEIJING — The risk of Chinese stocks being delisted from U.S. exchanges has nearly halved after regulators reached an overhaul deal, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Monday.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board announced on Friday that both sides signed an agreement on cooperation in inspecting the audit working papers of US-listed Chinese companies. China̵[ads1]7;s Ministry of Finance also signed the agreement.

“This is without a doubt a regulatory breakthrough,” said Goldman Sachs’ Kinger Lau and a team, while cautioning that much uncertainty remains.

They pointed out that the PCAOB said the agreement was only a first step, while the Chinese side said it would provide “assistance” in the inspections.

The PCAOB said it planned to have inspectors on the ground in China by mid-September, and make a decision in December on whether China continues to block access to audit information.

The Goldman Sachs analysts said Monday that their model “suggests that the market may be pricing in about a 50% probability” that Chinese companies could be delisted from the U.S.

That’s down from 95% in mid-March – the highest recorded back to January 2020.

In late 2020, the US Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act became law. It allows the US Securities and Exchange Commission to delist Chinese companies from US exchanges if US regulators fail to pass company audits for three consecutive years.

Since March, the SEC has begun calling out Alibaba and other specific US-listed Chinese stocks for not complying with the new law.

Outlook for Chinese stocks

If U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, known as American Depositary Receipts, are forced to delist, the shares could plunge 13%, the Goldman Sachs analysts estimated.

MSCI China could fall by 6% under such a scenario, the report says. The index’s top holdings are Chinese stocks listed mainly in Hong Kong, such as Tencent and Alibaba.

A “no-delete” scenario could send ADRs and MSCI China 11% and 5% higher, respectively, the report said.

Read more about China from CNBC Pro

Few China-based companies have listed in the United States following Beijing’s scrutiny of Chinese ride-hailing company Didi’s IPO in late June 2021. Regulators have since tightened restrictions on Chinese companies — especially those with at least 1 million users — seeking to list overseas.

CSRC’s latest move



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