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The Most Amazing Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: First price drops appear, all in the West




The Case-Shiller index, which lags the ground reality by 4-6 months, is starting to pick up on price declines in Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, Denver and Portland.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The housing market is undergoing some navel-gazing, as many buyers fumed at current prices and mortgage rates. They are still out there, but they are one a lot lower, and many sellers haven’t figured it out yet, although some have started to cut their asking prices, but not nearly enough, and deal volume has plummeted.

Existing home sales volume fell 20% from a year ago across the US, and by 31% in California, and by 41[ads1]% in San Diego. Median prices in the West have begun to fall, and in the San Francisco Bay Area fell below year-ago levels, including by 8% in San Francisco. Sale of new homes plunged nearly 30% year-over-year across the U.S., and in the West by 50%, as the supply of new homes has exploded to 11 months, the highest since the peak of Housing Bust 1. And large institutional buyers have begun to pull out of this market because they don’t want to pay too much. This has been going on for several months.

But today, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is trailing the ground by 4-6 months, finally picked up the first month-over-month price declines — all in the West: the metros of Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Los Angeles, Denver and Portland.

Today’s release of the Case-Shiller index was for “June,” which consists of the three-month average of closed home sales that were entered in public registers in April, May and June, of agreements made a few weeks to a couple of months earlier, roughly in March to May.

In mid-April, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate pierced 5% and has remained above 5% since then. So here we go.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles where prices fell.

Home prices in Seattle fell 1.9% in “June” (three-month moving average of April, May and June) from “May”, and in one month the gains from the previous two months plus some are wiped out. This was the first month-on-month decline since October 2019, after a totally ridiculous increase. That cut the year-on-year peak to 9.3%, from 27% a few months earlier.

The Most Amazing Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: First price drops appear, all in the West

Home prices in San Francisco Bay Area fell 1.3% in “June” from May, below the level of April, and the first month-on-month decline since June 2020, and in one month wiped out the gains of the previous two months. This reduced the year-on-year peak to 16.1%, from over 24% in previous months.

For the Case Shiller Index, the metro consists of the five counties that cover San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay and part of the North Bay.

San Diego metro home prices fell 0.7% in “June”, the first month-on-month decline since October 2019, after a ridiculous increase. The index fell below its April level, wiping out more than two months of gains in one month.

This 0.7% decline reduced the year-over-year gain to 21.6%, from the near 30% gains of a few months ago.

The index value of 425 for San Diego means home prices have increased 325% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100, despite the dip in the middle (CPI growth was 75% over the same period).

Los Angeles metro home prices fell 0.4% in June from May, which reduced the year-on-year price increase to +19.4%.

Denver metro home prices fell 0.1 percent in June from May, reducing the year-over-year gain to 19.3%:

Portland metro home prices fell 0.1% in June from May, reducing the year-over-year gain to 14.7%. The month-on-month drop, the first since October 2019, is too small to mark on this 20-year chart:

House price growth. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sell pair” method. Sales in the current month are compared with when the same houses were sold previously. The price changes within each sales pair are integrated into the index for the subway, and adjustments are made for home improvements (methodology). In other words, the index tracks the change in dollars it took to buy same house over time, which makes it a measure of house price growth.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles where prices “slowed down” or stopped.

Miami metro: +2.3% for the month, “slowing down” month-on-month gains of 3.5% in previous months. This reduced the year-over-year gain to +33% from +34% last month, ridiculous mania, all of it.

Tampa Metro: +2.2% for the month, down from 3.7% earlier this year. This narrowed the year-on-year peak to 35.0% from 36% last month. Absolutely insane.

Phoenix Metro: +1.0% for the month, down from +2.5% in April and from +3.0% earlier in the year. This reduced the year-over-year peak to +26.6% from +32% earlier this year:

Boston Metro: +0.6% for the month, slowing from 1.9% last month, and from +2.8% earlier this year. This reduced the year-on-year increase to 14.9%:

Washington DC Metro: +0.0% for the month, no change, down from 2.9% earlier this year. This reduced the year-on-year gain to +10.8%:

Las Vegas Metro: +1.5% for the month, slowing from +2.1% from last month, and from over +3% earlier this year. This reduced the year-on-year gain to +25.1%:

Dallas Metro: +2.6% for the month, same as last month, but slowing from over +4% earlier this year. The year-on-year gain remained at +30.8%:

New York subway, the huge market within commuting distance of New York City: +1.1% for the month, slowing from 1.6% last month. The year-over-year gain of +14.6% has been roughly flat for three months.

With its index value of 276, New York metro has experienced 176% home price growth since January 2000. The remaining cities in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and Cleveland) have experienced less home price growth and do not qualify for this famous list.

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