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The Hill's Morning Report – Trump searches for backstops amid recession



Welcome to The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report. Happy Tuesday! Our newsletter gets you updated on the most important developments in politics and politics, plus trends you need to look at. Co-creators are Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver (CLICK HERE to subscribe!). On Twitter, find us at @asimendinger and @ alweaver22.

President Trump Donald John TrumpTrump pushes back on recent polling data, saying internal figures are "strongest we've had so far" Illinois state legislature apologizes for photos showing scandalous attack on Trump Scaramucci collecting team of former cabinet members to speak out against Trump MORE may argue that the US economy is roaring, but he is clearly concerned that a recession is not out of the realm of opportunity next year and could put his bid for re-election at risk.

"I don't see a recession ," the president said Sunday before flying from New Jersey to Washington at the end of the summer vacation.

Back in the White House, Trump renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he roared Twitter instructions to the Independent Central Bank on Monday to prime the pump with lower interest rates. The president resists the view shared by many that his customs policy helped boost US growth. He argues that American consumers, the growth engine, will continue to use.

White House National Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow Lawrence (Larry) Alan Kudlow MER and Trump Advisor Kellyanne Conway Kellyanne Elizabeth Conway. The US Legislature of Illinois apologizes for photos depicting blatant assaults on Trump Trump's health chief: Officials actively & # 39; working with & # 39; ObamaCare Compensation Plan Campaign Help: Trump asks questions shared by & # 39; millions of Americans & # 39; with Epstein's conspiracy theory MER both worked Monday to clear the market and analysts' predictions that a recession is coming next year, or by 2021 (The Hill).

Kudlow has scheduled briefings this week with state and local business leaders in an effort to speak up financial confidence, reports The Washington Post. A White House spokesman said the talks revolve around Trump's economic agenda and "have been long planned."

Associated Press: Seventy-four percent of US business economists said Monday in a new report that they expect a US recession by the end of 2021.

Later Monday, the White House turned down a report that Trump's economic team is in the early the stages of discussing the benefits of a temporary cut in payroll taxes as a way to stimulate spending to potentially avert a recession. The White House, which generally favors lower taxes, is open to weighing executive and legislative measures that could lead to a slowing economy into next year. But any GOP-favored legislative tax changes this year, in the absence of a financial crisis, would run into a brick wall in the democratically controlled House on the way to a presidential election.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren, who was one of two Federal Open Market Committee officials who disliked when the panel voted to reduce interest rates in July, continued to push back Monday for further interest rate cuts by the central bank. He says he is not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly threaten the US economy (Bloomberg).

"We probably have another six months of the year that is much closer to 2 percent growth," he said during a Bloomberg Television interview. "I am not saying that there are no circumstances in which I would be willing to relieve. I just want to see proof that we are going into something that is more of a decline. & # 39; & # 39;

Markets and the White House will listen intensely to Powell on Friday, looking for reassuring clues about Fed policy for the rest of this year, Powell giving a high-profile speech at the central bank's annual economic forum in Jackson Hole, Wyo. ( CNBC)

Investors were cheered on Monday by stimulus measures adopted over the weekend in China and Germany, two major economies experiencing slow growth, with China's central bank unveiling a key interest rate reform to push borrowing costs lower for companies, while Germany signaled readiness to put up to $ 55 billion in additional expenses (Reuters).

Wall Street Journal: Luxury consumer goods, such as motorhomes, have seen a real decline in sales, considered a warning warning. " RV- the industry is better at calling recessions than economists are, " said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University in Muncie, Ind.

Associated Press: So is a recession close?

The Hill: Five administration officials shaping Trump's trade agenda.

Gerald F. Seib: If the economy is sour, Democrats will face a tough election.

LEADING THE DAY

CONGRESS: The welcoming crowd got a new new ally Monday when the rep. Ben Ray Luján (DN.M.), the No. 4 House Democrat running for Senate and contending in a contentious primary, came out in favor of the virtue, making him the highest-ranking member of the caucus to to do it.

Luján, the assistant speaker and former chairman of the House Democratic Party campaign, said in a statement that he moved into the pro-impeachment column because of warnings that Russian efforts to interfere in the US election have still in the 2020 cycle (The Height).

"The Trump presidency raises serious concerns for national security," Luján said in a statement. "Not only has he ignored the warnings that our democracy is being targeted, but he has also actively encouraged Russian interference."

"President Trump's inaction is jeopardizing our elections, national security and democracy," Luján said. "What is clear is that President Trump abdicates his responsibility to defend our nation against Russian attacks and puts his own personal and political interests ahead of the American people."

Lujan's announcement adds a majority of the House Democratic Caucus that now supports the opening of an inquiry into the president. The total number is 123 legislators. Rep. Katherine Clark Katherine Marlea ClarkToni Morrison dies at 88 Former Virginia Deputy AG: Trump's Twitter attacks an & # 39; distraction & # 39; from & # 39; substantial & # 39; criticism House Democrats inch toward majority support for impeachment MER (D-Mass.) was the highest-ranking member who supported a request before Luján's announcement.

> Israel: Days after Reps. Ilhan Omar Ilhan OmarWorld Jewish Congress condemns Tlaib for proposed boycott of Bill Maher's show A lesson from Trump, Tlaib, Omar, Netanyahu affair Tlaib proposes to boycott Maher show after calling anti-Israeli boycott movement & # 39; bulls — purity test & # 39; MORE (D-Minn.) And Rashida Tlaib Rashida Harbi TlaibWorld Jewish Congress condemns Tlaib for proposing boycott of Bill Maher's show F-bombs away: Why lawmakers now ban more than ever A lesson on Trump, Tlaib, Omar, Netanyahu case MER (D-Mich.) was barred from the pair by progressive lawmakers calling on Israel for an official visit, urging its colleagues to visit and criticize the president and the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu. MER . [19659002]

"I encourage my colleagues to visit, meet people we should meet, see things we should see, hear the stories we should hear," Omar said at a news conference in St. Paul, Minn. "We cannot let Trump and Netanyahu succeed in concealing the cruel reality of the occupation to us."

Muslim lawmakers were blocked by Israel from taking the trip last week over their support for boycotts, divestments and countermeasures, a decision cheered by Trump. Omar and Tlaib had planned to visit the Israeli-occupied West Bank on a tour organized by a Palestinian group and stop in Jerusalem. The two are frequent critics of the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians.

Despite being uninvited at first, Tlaib was allowed to visit on a humanitarian basis so that she could see the grandmother in the West Bank. However, she rejected and cited Israel's "oppressive relationship that was meant to humiliate" her (The Associated Press).

> Mueller fades away: Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller Robert (Bob) Swan MuellerTrump demands probe of Obama bookstore Democrats express private disappointment over Mueller testimony Kellyanne Conway: & # 39; I'd like to know & # 39; whether Mueller read his own report MER & # 39; s investigation has largely disappeared from the airwaves less than a month after his high-profile testimony on Capitol Hill, and served as a possible sign to Democrats that the public's interest in the probe decreases.

During a meeting in New Hampshire last week, Trump did not launch his usual diatribes criticizing the Mueller probe as a partisan "witch hunt" aimed at damaging his presidency. Instead, the president chose fresher goals by following Omar and Tlaib over what he claims are "anti-Israel" views.

The president is not the only one shifting focus away from the probe, which until recently dominated the cable news airwaves. At the end of July, the topic of Mueller's investigation and forgery was largely absent as the crowd of Democratic rivals tried to debate each other on political issues such as health care and who is the best option to fight Trump in the parliamentary election.

A fading of public interest in the Mueller probe would be an unwelcome change for House Democrats, especially as Democrats in the House Judiciary Committee – many of whom saw Mueller's testimony as a hallmark of press impeachment pushing forward with his investigation into possible impediment and potential abuse of power by the President (The Hill).

***

POLITICS & CAMPAIGNS: Almost two months after she made waves in the first round of Democratic presidential debates, Sen. Kamala Harris Kamala Devi HarrisEight Democratic President hopes to appear in CNN Climate City Hall Biden, Buttigieg bypass Democratic delegate meeting: report The Hill's Morning Report – Trump on Defense of Economic Jitters MORE & # 39; s (D-Calif.) Campaign faces a pivotal moment.

As Amie Parnes reports, Harris has consistently lost steam in polling over the past month and has been unable to keep up with former Vice President Joe Biden Joe BidenThe Democratic presidential election hopes to appear in CNN City Hall Hill Reporter Rafael Bernal: Biden tries to save Latino Support Biden, Buttigieg bypasses Democratic delegation meeting: reports MER and Sen. Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Ann WarrenTop Sanders adviser: Warren does not compete for & # 39; same pool of voters' eight Democratic presidential elections hopefully emerge in CNN climate town hall In change, top chiefs shareholder values ​​do not top goals MORE (D-Mass.), Which is accelerating the 2020 field, leaving some Democratic strategists to question how she has positioned herself in the race.

A Democrat strategist noted that she has seen herself as both a progressive and a moderate, which makes her considered "inauthentic."

"I still don't think anyone really understands why she's running, " said the strategist, adding that she has become" inauthentic "because of her attempts to portray herself as a progressive and moderate. "And if you run as president and you don't know why you're running, nobody else will either."

Facing the most important moment of her campaign, Harris held three fundraising events over the weekend, including one at Martha's Vineyard where she impressed Democratic donors, according to a collector present.

> Again with Iowa TV ad: As the former vice president begins a week of campaigning in New Hampshire this week, his team spends money in Iowa, launching the campaign's first TV ad there to target voters in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Quad Cities and Sioux City, campaign manager Greg Schultz said. The 60-second ad before Labor Day argues that the country has been "beaten by an erratic, vicious, bullying president", while Biden has experience in bringing "strong, steady, stable" leadership to the Oval Office. Images of former President Obama with Biden are prominent in the six-figure advertising campaign, accompanied by another six-digit digital investment extending into "coming weeks," according to the campaign.

The Washington Post: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand The Hill's Morning Report – Trump on Defense of Economic Jitters F-Bombs Away: Why Lawmakers Curse Now More Than Ever The White House Offers Assurances in the Recession Fears Like 2020 candidates sound alarm MORE (DN.Y.) continues this summer's sprint to make the debate stage in Houston.

The Associated Press: Sen. Michael Bennet Michael Farrand BennetBiden, Buttigieg bypasses Democratic delegation meeting: Hill's Campaign Report Report: Battle for Senate begins to take shape The Hill's Morning Report – Recession fears rise and markets dive – what now? MORE (D-Colo.) Knocks about moderation in Trump's age.

> Warren regrets (again): Warren waded back into the ancestral water on Monday when she apologized to a crowd of Native Americans for "harm I have caused". over her previous claims of Native American ancestry, saying there was a mistake on her end.

Varsen's remarks came from the beginning of her address on a Native American Issues forum, where she presented her recently released policy plan addressing these issues.

"Now, before I go any further into this, I will say this: Like everyone who has been honest with themselves, I know I made a mistake," Warren told the crowd. "I apologize for the damage I caused. I've listened and I've learned a lot. And I am grateful for the many conversations we have had together. "

" It's a great honor to be able to work with the Indian Country, and that's what I've been trying to do as a Senator, and that's what I promise I will do as President of the United States of America states, ” she said.

The comments came after her decision late last year to release DNA results showing some Indians dating back six to ten generations as she tried to add allegations that she falsely claimed minority status for previous employment. However, she has been questioned by some voters on the campaign trail about her decision and has been forced to apologize several times. None of this has stemmed from Trump's attacks, which continue to dismissively refer to her as "Pocahontas" (The Hill).

The Hill: Soft support marks the Democratic primary of the year.

The Hill: In an important Senate race, Sen. Martha McSally Martha Elizabeth McSallyFighter pilot vs. Arizona astronaut match-up could determine control of Senate Air Force probe finds no confirmation of sexual assault allegations against Trump chooses former FBI official name of right-wing extremism as one of the biggest security challenges for 2020 MORE (R -Ariz.) Leads early this year against his Democratic opponent, retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D), has evaporated, according to a study released today by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based pollster.

HuffPost: Julián Castro to announce ambitious animal welfare plan.

Associated Press: Democrats spend millions of dollars trying to win state house.

IN FOCUS / SHARP

WHITE & ADMINISTRATION: The administration, which has been demolished on how best to punish Chinese tech giant Huawei as a risk to the United States, announced on Monday that it will again extend the deadline before US companies have to cut ties with the company. "There are another 90 days for US telecommunications companies ," Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Wilbur Louis RossTrump administration delays penalty on Huawei for another 90 days WaPo calls Trump admin another threat & # 39; against endangered species Recession fears strongly when stock markets plummet MER on Fox Business Network. “Some of the village businesses depend on Huawei. So we give them a little more time to get used to. But no specific licenses are granted for anything. ”19. November is the new deadline for penalties. On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to a complete ban on US business with Huawei, saying he believes the company poses a national security risk ( The Hill ). On Tuesday, Huawei said it does not expect to see any relief from US sanctions, but remains confident of the company's growth based on the development of its own technology ( The Associated Press .

> Department of Justice : [19659109] Attorney General William Barr William Pelham BarrCurrent and former prosecutors respond to Barr's comments on progressive DA's Attorney Barr's license to kill medical examiner confirms Epstein's death by suicide MORE removed it the acting head of the Bureau of Prisons, replacing the agency's top official in the wake of the suicide of dawn the day before dawn Jeffrey Epstein in his New York City cell, in a statement said that Barr was "shaken" by incidents in the Metropolitan Correctional Center, Hugh Hurwitz who had been in a working position since last year would return to a former executive position he previously occupied. Dr. Kathleen Hawk Sawyer who headed the agency from 1992 to 2003 is the new director ( CNN ).

> FEC: Chairman of the Federal Election Commission, the Democrat Ellen Weintraub sent a letter on Saturday stating that there are no grounds for violent voter fraud in 2016 or in any other election in the United States , which suggests that he provides evidence of his allegations of voter fraud or ends with repeated allegations of illegal voting. The president began making these accusations after failing to win the 2016 popular vote. Trump then put Vice President Pence in charge of a special commission to investigate allegations of electoral fraud, but the panel quietly dissolved White House a year later without revealing evidence to back up Trump's statement that 3 to 5 million ballots were illegally cast for Clinton ( The Associated Press .

During a CNN interview, Weintraub said, [19659095] "It is harmful to our democracy to disseminate information that … is baseless … These are serious charges … but if there is no evidence, these things should not be said." ( The Hill ).

> North Korea: The administration extends a ban for another year on the use of US passports for trips to North Korea. announced Monday that the ban will be in place until August 31, 2020, unless repealed by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Michael (Mike) Richard PompeoAfghan's president vows revenge following Islamic State's attack on wedding The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – Trump on Defense Against Economic Jitters The Last Pro-Democracy Rally draws tens of thousands in Hong Kong MORE . The ban was introduced in 2017 by the then secretary of state Rex Tillerson Rex Wayne TillersonState div. Extends travel ban to North Korea Scaramucci breaks up with Trump in now-familiar pattern Senate chair for brawl over Trump's spy chief MER 2018 ( The Associated Press ).

> Venezuela : United States, frustrated by failed international efforts to remove Nicolás Maduro from power, has made secret contact with Diosdado Cabello as is considered the most powerful man in Venezuela after Maduro ( The Associated Press ). … Axios reported over the weekend that Trump talked to military advisers about a potential naval blockade of Venezuela's coastline to enforce an international embargo. The president's idea was described as impractical due to the size of the area and too costly for the US military in a time of competing priorities.

> Iran: An Iranian tanker seized by the United Kingdom on July 4 was released on Monday and went to Greece. Tehran warned against further attempts to seize the tankers and accused the United States and its allies of trying to provoke a confrontation ( Reuters ). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it was "unfortunate" that the British Royal Marines released the tanker. This is oil profits when eventually sold somewhere into the market, which will run back to Qasem Soleimani and the Iranian Quds force, their elite forces that have sown terror and destruction. and killed Americans all over the world Pompeo said during a Fox News interview. "If they succeed, they will have more money, more wealth, more resources to continue their terror campaign, to continue their assault campaign in Europe."

Morning Report was created by journalists Alexis Simendinger and Al Weaver . We want to hear from you! Email: asimendinger@thehill.com and aweaver@thehill.com . We invite you to share The Hill's reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to OFFER!

OPINION

Why President Trump has to keep talking about Hong Kong by Larry Diamond, opinion speaker, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2Zh2IYA

Congress must exercise its power to ensure that America does not have war with Iran by Kelly Magsamen, contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2KHTvAn

WHERE AND WHEN

Hill.TV's "Rising" at. 9 ET has The Hills senior correspondent Mike Lillis and talks about Congress's agenda next month, including pistol measures; freelance journalist Zaid Jilani discussing Biden's China policy; and Nate Snyder a former senior counterterrorism official at the Department of Homeland Security, and unpacked the administration's policy against Huawei .

Find Hill.TV programming at http: // thehill. com / hilltv or on YouTube at 10am

House is in pro forma sessions until they returned to Washington on September 4 to begin reviewing legislation to respond to mass shootings.

Senate The Senate continues to meet pro forma, but is not scheduled to return for votes until September 9.

The President has lunch with the Vice President at 12.30 in the White House. Trump will host Romanian President Klaus Iohannis at the Oval Office for Bilateral Meetings this afternoon.

Vice President heads toward Chantilly, Va., To chair the sixth National Space Council meeting. Pence will speak at 9:30 pm about "the administration's commitment to expand space exploration" and management in commercial space. Location: Udvar-Hazy Center National Air and Space Museum.

Pompeo goes to New York City and meets with the Committee to release Prosperity at 11:30. He will host a lunch with the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić at 12:30. The secretary participates in a UN peace and security session in the Middle East at 3pm. Pompeo joins a press conference with Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz at 06:10. and then meet the U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres and 6:50 p.m.

ELSEWHERE

United Kingdom : The United Kingdom states that it will end the EU's freedom of movement rules on October 31 if the exit from the bloc takes place without a transitional agreement. Prime Minister Boris Johnson maintains that his new government would not be hostile to immigration. " After Brexit, the government will introduce a new, fairer immigration system that prioritizes skills and what people can contribute to the UK, rather than where they come from," said a spokesman for the UK Home Office in a statement (Reuters). On Monday, Trump and Johnson spoke on the phone about trade, the world economy and Brexit, the White House said.

[1945 New York : After five years of investigation and protests, the New York City Police Department fired on Monday Daniel Pantaleo an officer involved in the 2014 dead chokehold of Eric Garner on unarmed black man whose dying gasp of "I can't breathe" gave voice to a national debate about race and police use of force. Pantaleo, who is white, was dismissed on the basis of the recommendation of a departmental disciplinary judge, said Police Commissioner James O'Neill (The Associated Press).

➔ NBA star Stephen Curry announced on Monday that he is making a donation to Howard University in an effort to help launch the school's long dormant golf program. The two-time MVP will fund the program for the next six years as the school tries to have men and women's teams for competition by the 2020-21 school year. "This is one of the most generous gifts in the history of Howard University," said Kery Davis athletic director at the historically Black University of Washington. Curry, an avid golfer himself, became interested in helping revive the team after meeting Otis Ferguson IV a Howard senior and golfer, during a campus visit in January (ESPN).

THE CLOSER

And finally … All the stage of the world! Training dogs in training – poodles and golden retrievers helping people with autism and post-traumatic stress disorder – participated last week at a live theater performance in Canada of the hit musical "Billy Elliot" as part of the dog curriculum, and the image of welcoming pooches who quietly watch the theaters from their seats went viral. The point of the training is to help the dogs prepare to help their people wherever they may roam (Fox News).

"All the dogs were amazing and remained relaxed throughout the show. Some even looked through the cracks in the seats," said Laura 1945 Mackenzie owner of K-9 Country Inn Working Service Dogs in Ontario . "The dogs loved the show almost as much as their handlers ."


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