The forecast for global oil demand growth cuts in the medium and long term

VIENNA, AUSTRIA – 2018/06/20: The OPEC logo is seen at the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) building in Vienna.
The 174th OPEC meeting will be held on June 22, 2018 in Vienna. (Photo by Omar Marques / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

OPEC has downgraded the forecast for global oil demand in both the medium and long term, citing tough market conditions and "signs of stress" in the world economy.

In its closely held World Oil Outlook (WOO), the Middle East-dominated producer group said on Tuesday that the last 1[ads1]2 months had been "challenging" for the energy markets once again.

"There have been signs of stress in the global economy, and the outlook for global growth, at least in the short and medium term, has been revised repeatedly over the past year," OPEC said.

As a result, OPEC has lowered its outlook for global oil demand growth to 104.8 million barrels per day (b / d) by 2024, and 110.6 million b / d by 2040.

On 14 – a member of the producer group said it expects oil demand to continue to grow at "relatively healthy prices" over the next five years, forecasting an increase of 6.1 million barrels per day to its 2018 level.

Average growth will be about $ 1 million / day in the medium term, OPEC said, with increased demand likely coming primarily from non-OECD countries.

In the long term, global oil demand is projected to rise by around 12 million bd / day, rising from 98.7 million bd / day in 2018 to 110.6 million bd / d by 2040. India is believed to be the country with the fastest growth in oil demand and the largest additional demand in the next two decades.

"At the global level, the forecast is expected to decline from a level of 1.4 million fd / day in 2018 to around 0.5 million fd / d towards the end of the next decade," OPEC said in the report.

Demand worries

WOO presents the OPEC Secretariat's medium-term and long-term analysis of the energy market, as well as projections for the global economy.

The report comes at a time when many players in the energy market are increasingly concerned about a repeat of rising supply and fluctuating demand – the same situation that triggered a dramatic fall in the crude future from mid-2014 to 2016.

Since October In 2018, when Brent crude futures climbed to a peak of just over $ 86, the international benchmark has fallen almost 30%. US-Texas intermediaries have fallen nearly 20% in the same period.

Brent crude traded at $ 62.31 a barrel Tuesday morning, while US WTI stood at $ 56.65.

"We are looking at a huge increase in supply without OPEC over the next few months, not just the US – which is continuing to grow – but we are seeing a big wave from Brazil and Norway and one or two other countries," said Neil Atkinson, leader for the Oil Industry and Markets Division of the International Energy Agency (IEA), to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.

"In the meantime, growth in demand is slowing due to the poorer economic climate. So we look back to a large surplus at the beginning of next year."

IEA's Atkinson said that OPEC and allied non-OPEC members, sometimes referred to as OPEC +, would have to decide if additional production cuts would be necessary when it met in early December.

He added that the group had to decide with certainty that the pressure on prices "is clearly going to be down instead of up."

Oil to retain the highest proportion of energy mix

OPEC's WOO said oil accounted for more than 31% of global energy demand in 2018, ahead of coal (27%) and gas (23%).

And over the next 20 years, oil is expected to be the largest contributor to the energy mix, accounting for more than 28%.

Natural gas was expected to be the second largest source of energy, according to OPEC, reaching 25% of the total primary energy mix in 2040.

"The demand for gas comes primarily from Asia, led by China and India , as well as OPEC member states, "the group said.

Last year, global carbon emissions climbed to a record high, despite a warning from a UN report that gas production would have to be cut over the next 12 years to stabilize the climate.

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