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Business

The Fed’s Champion supports a 75 basis point increase in July if conditions remain the same




Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester joins a panel convened to discuss the health of the US economy in New York on November 18, 2015.

Lucas Jackson | Reuters

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that if economic conditions remain the same when the US Federal Reserve meets to decide on its next monetary policy move in July, it will support a 75 basis basis rate hike.

The Fed̵[ads1]7;s path to money tightening has become a key driver of market activity in recent months as the central bank appears to be acting aggressively to curb rising inflation, while acknowledging the risk that steeper rate hikes will increase the likelihood of an economic recession.

The Fed picked up a 75 basis point rise to its reference rate earlier this month, the largest increase since 1994, with inflation at 40 years.

Mester – a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee – said that the July meeting is likely to involve a debate among FOMC politicians on whether to choose 50 basis points or 75 basis points.

“If the conditions were exactly as they were today when they went into that meeting – if the meeting were today – I would be in favor of 75 because I have not seen the kind of numbers on the inflation side that I need to see to think that we can go back to an increase of 50, “she told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach.

Mester said she will make an assessment of supply and demand conditions in the coming weeks before the meeting to determine the preferred path for monetary policy.

The “dot plot” to the expectations of individual FOMC members places the Fed’s reference rate of 3.4% at the end of the year, from the current target range of 1.5% -1.75%.

“I think getting interest rates up to the 3-3.5%, it’s very important that we do that, and do it quickly and do it consistently as we move forward, so it’s after the point where I think there’s more uncertainty about how far we have to go to curb inflation, “said Mester.

‘Painful transition’

US markets fell on Tuesday after disappointing consumer confidence, which came in at 98.7 against a Dow Jones consensus estimate of 100, prompting investors’ nervousness about slowing economic growth and the potential compounding effect of aggressive monetary tightening.

Mester suggested that consumers’ experience of inflation, which reached 8.6% at the headline level in May, “shadowed” their confidence in the economy.

“In the Fed, we are on track now to bring our interest rates up to a more normal level and then probably a little higher into restrictive territory, so that we can bring these inflation rates down so that we can maintain a good economy going forward,” she said. .

“A job for us now is to get control of inflation rates, and I think right now it’s coloring how consumers feel about the economy and where it’s going.”

Master acknowledged that there is a risk of recession when the Fed initiates its austerity policy. However, her basic forecast is that growth will be lower this year, below “trend growth”, which she estimates at 2%, as the Fed tries to moderate demand and bring it closer to limited supply.

“I expect to see unemployment rise over the next two years to just over 4% or 4.25%, and again there are still very good labor market conditions,” she said.

“So we’re in this transition right now, and I think it’s going to be painful in some ways and it’s going to be a bumpy ride in some ways, but it’s very necessary that we do that to bring down inflation. “



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