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The electric car revolution comes. This is what has to happen first



We may already be closer than you think. Analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance have predicted that more than half of new cars sold will be electric.

"We see a real possibility that worldwide sales of conventional passenger cars have already peaked," said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF.

But in order for electric cars to really go against fog against gasoline-powered cars, a few things must happen first – and they won't happen anywhere at once.

Going the distance

First, electric cars have to move on a single charge and they have to charge faster.

Seth Goldstein, an electric vehicle researcher at Morningstar, foresees that, within 1

0 years, electric cars will average about 300 miles on a fee, which should be enough for most people's comfort. Currently, electric cars average about 200 miles at a cost, he said.

Since even 200 miles already far exceeds the amount most people drive in one day, the difference is mostly psychological. People are just accustomed to getting far more than 200 miles out of a gas tank.

Longer range cars come, thanks to improvements in several areas. Better batteries can store more energy. Meanwhile, improvements in production are driving down battery prices, which allows automakers to install multiple battery cells without running up prices too much.

Today, electric car batteries cost about $ 176 per kilowatt hour, but the figure falls to just $ 87 per kWh by 2025, according to analysts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (The kilowatt hour or kWh is a measure of how much energy a battery can store. For example, the Chevrolet Bolt EV has a 60 kWh battery pack, while the much larger Tesla Model S may have a 100 kW package.) [19659002] Electric cars also goes further thanks to improvements in the car's energy efficiency. More efficient electric motors and even more efficient tire assistance. For example, the new Tesla Model S Long Range builds on efficiency improvements in electric motors, tires, and wheels that help reduce rolling and wind resistance, with no extra battery capacity, to go 370 miles on a charge.

Another thinking

Car dealers will also have to think differently about "fueling" their car. When buying a gasoline-powered car, nobody ever asks, "Where do I fill the tank?" Gas stations are pretty much everywhere and it only takes a few minutes to fill up. With electric cars it is different. Charging the battery is not something people usually go over to do as a task in themselves.

Although electric car manufacturers are able to shorten the time it takes to charge a battery, it won't usually be a quick stop. Ideally, chargers will be placed where the car can be parked for a long time, such as in the garage, in the office or in shopping centers or motels.

But people won't buy electric cars unless they feel they can do an occasional long-haul trip without worry. This is where motorway riders come to rest. At present, there are several companies and industry groups that are working to build up networks of fast chargers.

  Tesla has used its network of fast chargers as an important selling point for its cars and SUVs. 19659018] Tesla has used its network of fast chargers as an important selling point for its cars and SUVs.

"It is important to put these motorcycle riders in place at appropriate distances so that it is not superstructed," said Pasquale Romano, CEO of ChargePoint, which operates a network of electric car chargers across the United States . "And you have to build it a little ahead of consumer demand because they optically have to see it so they can get over the hump mentally."

General Motors and construction company Bechtel recently announced they are collaborating to build a network of fast chargers. Data from drivers of both electric and petrol-powered GM cars, which will be compiled voluntarily through GM's OnStar system, will help dictate where chargers are to be built, says Mike Ableson, GM's Vice President for EV Infrastructure and Charging.

Electrify America, a charging network company funded by Volkswagen as part of its diesel emissions scandal, is also rapidly building a charging network and having agreements that allow the network to seamlessly collaborate with others. Tesla itself also has a large network of Superchargers worldwide that the company often points to as an important selling point for its cars and SUVs.

And the chargers are getting faster. Swiss industrial companies, ABB, claim that chargers will be able to fill the car's battery pack to 80% in under 10 minutes. This also depends on cars being able to accept a charge this quickly, though. Cars, though, will vary in how fast they can charge. Charging currents are already a bragging point for car manufacturers.

More choices, better prices

Beyond that, one only needs to be several electric vehicles for consumers to choose from.

In the automotive industry, there is always a difficult interaction between what customers want and what is available. For example, crossover SUVs are very popular with car dealers these days. It is partly because there are so many crossover models out there . It wasn't true a few years ago. The result is a huge increase in crossover sales – both because customers want them and because the dealership is carpeted with them.

Currently, someone who wants to buy an electric car will have few opportunities. But as more competitors enter the market, sales of electric cars will naturally increase as customers are more likely to find an electric car that fits their basic needs and tastes.

  The new Nissan Leaf goes further and sells at a lower price than the previous model - an industry string that is expected to continue.
They will also be cheaper. It's already happening as battery costs – the most expensive part of an electric car – are starting to come down. When Nissan Leafs $ 35,000 was introduced in 2010, it had an EPA rated range of just 73 miles at a cost. In 2019, a new base version of the magazine had a range of 150 miles and a starting price of $ 6,000 less. (A more expensive version that gets 226 miles in a fee is also now available.)

Until recently, electric cars have not kept their resale value as well as gasoline-powered cars.

It's starting to change, says Eric Ibara, a resale value analyst with the Kelley Blue Book. The key factor seems to be range. Electric vehicles with a longer driving distance keep the value better, he said. The Chevrolet Bolt EV, for example, has its value as well as comparable gas powered Chevrolet cars.

Juergen Stackmann, head of sales to Germany's Volkswagen, does not see resale value as a problem. The Volkswagen Group, VW's parent company, which includes Audi and Porsche, is among the most aggressive automakers when it comes to electric car plans. Electric cars cost so much less to operate and "fuel" than gasoline or diesel cars, says Stackmann, that most customers will still come ahead after just a few years, although resale value is not so good.
  With 238 miles of range on a single charge, the Chevy Bolt EV has its value as well as a similar gasoline-powered Chevrolet.

The challenge will make customers see it. Corporate fleet buyers understand it easily, he said, because they tend to look at their cars and trucks as business investments.

"Private customers, usually look at the price day for purchases, and then they forget the rest," said Stackmann.

The timing is approaching fast, Goldstein says, when electric cars will be just as good a choice for consumers, even without any additional purchases.

Tesla already gives us some of a test case since the tax effort on their cars in the US has already begun to roll back now, as the automaker has exceeded the maximum number of sales allowed during the rule.

"If you take charge infrastructure away and you take away incentives, just look at when [electric vehicles] will be as good as a [internal combustion-powered car] it will happen in 10 years," he said. [19659002] And when that happens, electric cars will cease to be such a novelty and begin to really take over.


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