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The economy is the most important in politics, until it is not



So long it has been.

Unemployment was at or below 4%, as it is now, from December 1965 to January 1970, according to federal labor statistics data. It was a central time in American history – but now it is not remembered for the vacancy.

They were not quiet years. It was the years that Medicare was passed and the civil rights movement was in full swing. They also saw most of the American deaths in Vietnam. Things were so bad that Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to run for re-election in 1968, which eventually led to violence in the Democratic Convention that year and opened Nixon to returning from his political wilderness.

"A good economy is not There is everything and everything to choose, says Princeton political historian Julian Zelizer, asked about the 1

960s versus today." It was a period when the economy still did very well – even better than in today in many ways. "

Today there is no war like Vietnam, although Trump does his best to make things seem insecure with his trade wars and his tweets and his complaints about Russia's investigation, but there is strong debate about social change and progress, especially for minorities and women.

The Americans have time to focus on these efforts, perhaps because they are not looking for work. "" A good economy can create expectations of social movement policy, "Zelizer said. . "In the 1960s, the strong economy provided support for civil rights movement, demanding that African Americans participate in the growing middle class, and it produced more educated youth who were at the heart of the war policy of war. gave support to ideas like fighting poverty since the country could afford to do so. "Fifty years ahead, and much of the change that started in the 60s, feels unfinished, especially to Democrats who talk about economic inequality even as, according to the data the economists possessed, anyone who wants a job has one and that economy continues to grow.

Unemployment was 3.6% in April and annual GDP growth was above 4% for the first quarter.

Trump's argument is that it goes well

] Trump will be the recipient of all these good financial news, but he has seen his approval rates on the economy appear even though his overall approval rates are below 50%.

His chief of staff this week said it didn't really matter how voters feel about Trump, they will give him another four years in the White House if that means sitting pretty as they are now.

"You hate to sound like a cliché, but are you better than you were four years ago ? It's pretty simple, right? "It's economy, stupid." I think it's easy, "said Mick Mulvaney to an audience at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles. "People will vote for someone they don't like if they think it's good for them."

And by some fairly objective standards that will not glaze over your eyes, people sit quite.

  Despite a strong economy, Trump is struggling. Here it is.
Most people in the country only got a tax shot, although some in most of the blue states did not understand it at the time because their tax repayments were lower.

Contentedness with the economy extends nationwide if you go down the latest CNN data. 73 percent of Americans generally in the south said the economy was good or good. It corresponds to 71% of Northeastern and only a slightly lower percentage (69%) of Western and Midwesterns, which include several of the most important rustic states.

If the economy is going to carry Trump for another period, it will be in spite of the divisions it has spread in the country, said Timothy Naftali, a professor at NYU and former director of Nixon's presidential library.

"There have certainly been times when the economy is strong, but the country is stressed because of a foreign policy challenge, such as in Vietnam," Naphtali said. "In this case, we are not stressed by a foreign policy problem, I would argue that it is the nature of the president himself, which creates stress. If Donald Trump was a unite, I would think that the public would be much more behind him given the strength of the economy. . "

A time of transformation?

It is not clear that there is enough pressure to create change today. Democrats have addressed the issue of inequality and some, especially Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the progressives who run for the democratic presidential election, have argued that the good economy is just the reason for transforming American society. 19659006] "I used my career at the bottom of why America's promise works for some families, but others who work just as hard are slipping through the cracks in disaster," Warren said in the campaign's announcement video.

She and Sanders have proposed sweeping reforms to restore health care and education systems and create a stronger safety net with the country's wealth. Trump and Republicans are already painting these ideas as socialism.
  Dems & # 39; the town hall was socialism on the parade

To claim that the government should do more is surely in stark contrast to the Republicans, who will point to their fixed tax rates for companies as proof that they Giving more to your business can help the economy.

But it may not even be a debate that the Americans have in 2020. Only 13% in the latest monthly Gallup survey said the economy is the main problem, down from over 80% on points during the financial crisis. To the extent that the economy affects voters, there may be a lack of financial urgency.
Joe Biden, former vice president and current democratic front runner, entered the race last month without mentioning the economy of his kickoff video. He wanted to focus entirely on Trump's rhetoric and white nationalists and argue that Trump is changing the country's moral substance.

In addition, Trump has shown an innate ability to distract Americans from the news that benefits him, such as his preoccupation with Russia's investigation, his divisive insistence that a wall be built on the southern border, or that the affordable care law becomes repealed.

These issues can ultimately become more important to voters.

"The point is that the good economic news helps an established, but other problems, guidelines and challenges can undermine that advantage," said Zelizer. "In 1968 there was a war in Southeast Asia, today there is a political war against The Importance of this Presidency. "

And sometimes there is nothing to explain what is going on. In November 1972, unemployment was over 5% and had been for more than two years. The country already knew a lot about Watergate. Nixon, promising to end the war he had prolonged, won in a landslide.


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