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The Bank of Australia raises interest rates by 50 basis points




People walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia building in Sydney. On 3 May 2022, the Bank of Australia raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade to curb sky-high consumer prices.

Saeed Khan | AFP | Getty pictures

On Tuesday, Australia’s central bank raised interest rates by a maximum of 22 years and flagged several austerity measures coming as it struggled to contain rising inflation, beat impressive markets and send the local dollar into the air.

At the end of the policy meeting in June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash yield by 50 basis points to 0.85%, and investors who had invested in either 25 or 40 basis points on the wrong basis.

“Given the current inflationary pressures in the economy, and the still very low interest rates, the board decided to move by 50 basis points today,”[ads1]; RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement.

“The Board expects to take further steps in the process of normalizing monetary conditions in Australia in the coming months.”

The central bank had already raised interest rates by a quarter of a point in May, the first increase since 2010, and many had thought it would stick to a quarter-point deduction. The last time more went was in early 2000.

Investors sent the local dollar up 0.4% to 0.7223 dollars, while the yield on three-year bonds increased by 16 basis points to 3.27% and levels not seen since early 2012.

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Futures shifted to price in the real risk of another 50 basis points rise in July and prices around 1.5% by August after the release of inflation figures for the second quarter, which are expected to be red-hot.

Consumer price inflation reached a 20-year high of 5.1% in the first quarter, and may well approach 6% this quarter due to rising costs for energy, food, rent and housing construction.

“Higher electricity and gas prices and recent increases in petrol prices mean that short-term inflation is likely to be higher than expected a month ago,” Lowe warned.

Hard winter ahead

Just during his third week in office, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned Australians that inflation would get worse before it got better, and to prepare for a “difficult and expensive” winter.

Chalmers promised that some reductions in the cost of living would be included in a budget coming in October, centered on childcare and health. The Labor government threw out the Liberal National Coalition in an election in late May, inheriting nearly $ 1 trillion ($ 718.70 billion) in debt and endless budget deficits.

With inflation appearing to remain high for longer, investors are betting that the RBA will have to raise interest rates to almost 3% by the end of the year, making it easily one of the most aggressive austerity campaigns recorded.

Most economists had doubted that interest rates would rise given that far-reaching house hunting Australians sit on A $ 2 trillion in mortgage debt, making them very sensitive to borrowing costs.

House prices have already begun to fall in Sydney and Melbourne after a fantastic upswing in 2021, and consumer sentiment is returning to the depths of the pandemic.

“Consumer sentiment has never been so low at the beginning of an RBA austerity cycle,” said Gareth Aird, head of the Australian CBA.

“It was also the first time that house prices have fallen at the start of a cycle, and house prices mean something,” he added. “If you push rates too high too fast, you run the risk that prices will be corrected sharply lower in the short term, which will have a ripple effect through the economy.”



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