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The American recession is at risk, the Fed can deliver fewer tours: poll




The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates over the next year, but a majority of economists see the pace slowly.

It is according to the last poll of Reuters.

Fed is expected to increase again next month and three times next year.

The probability of a US recession over the next two years, while still low, also increased to a 35 percent average share of 30 percent.

Growth in the world's largest economy is still solid, backed by the $ 1.5 trillion tax cut boost, and unemployment is the lowest for almost half a century.

But growth is expected to slow down by the end of next year as a trade-off with China shows no signs of rental.

Gross domestic product (GDP) will expand at an annual rate of 2.7 per cent in the quarter, from 4.2 per cent in the second quarter and 3.5 per cent in the third.

GDP growth is therefore expected to slow to 2.0-2.5 percent through 201[ads1]9 and then down to 1.8 percent in mid-2020, about half of the latest reported rate.

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Trade crisis US President Donald Trump Launched With World Economy No. 2 China has already begun to hit export-sensitive economies like Germany and Japan. And a summit in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation concluded Sunday with leaders who did not agree on a final statement for the first time in the forum's history.

Expectations have lowered that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will make a breakthrough when meeting at a G20 Summit later this month.

Economists in the last poll said unanimously that the Fed will raise the federal rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50 percent in December.

Twelve respondents in the last poll said that there was more than 50 percent chance of a recession over the next two years. But only one, Fathom Consulting, has actually put down a point forecast for GDP to contract throughout the year 2020.



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