Tesla: The Final Countdown – Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)

We're in the last week of the first quarter of 2019, and for Tesla (TSLA) it means there's a crazy rush to goal. With the sale of all three models estimated to have been very soft in the first two months of the period, the company does all that remains to have a big third month in the quarter. Today I look at how current estimates stand and try to investigate where the company goes for the next couple of weeks.

It was estimated that there were about 3700 model 3 deliveries in Europe in February, with the three countries below representing about 39% of these deliveries a month. Here's what we have for March data so far. As always, the data comes from Tesla Motors Club, teslastats.no and eu-evs:

• Spain (through 3/22): 24 S / X in March versus 50 units in December 2018 and 71 units in March 2018.
• Norway (through 3/24): 339 S / X in March versus 1,647 units in December 2018 and 1,410 units in March 2018.
• Netherlands (through 3/23): 8 S / X in March versus 2,210 units in December 2018 and 871 units in March 2018.
• Spain: 251 Model 3 units.
• Norway: 3.137 Model 3 units.
• Dutch: 554 Model 3 units.

If we project the same rate as February for these three countries, it means slightly more than 10,000 units across Europe in March so far. Since most estimates are around 20,000 units on the continent in the first quarter, Tesla seems to have some work to do in these last few days to get there. On the model S / X front, we're going to see a big year over year decline, but how much is the question. The other thing we have data for is the model 3 trim mix in Norway. For the first about 1000 units, almost 40% was the performance version. Since then, there has been almost all Long Range, as the cumulative table below.

The difficult part when examining Tesla is that the company's strategy changes almost daily. Only in this quarter was the referral program eliminated and then brought back, free supercharging was eliminated and brought back, and the prices of all three models have changed so many times that it is difficult to count the number of changes. The latest price increase was not even what it was supposed to be, so what is the management plan for the second quarter?

We will probably see a cheaper model 3 hit Europe and maybe China, but will it be a mid-size version, a standard range one, or a price supplement to today's models first? No one really seems to know, and I'm not even sure many people at Tesla know what's going on. Perhaps we could even see that the company opened the order book for cheaper cars in Europe and China this week to get some deposit money before the end of the quarter to help the balance look a little better.

Due to First Quarter of Global Model 3 deliveries, estimates for deliveries are everywhere. I've heard anywhere from 40,000 to 70,000 model 3 units, with another 15,000 to 20,000 S / X units. Tesla led to a sequential increase in Model 3 output from around 61,400 in the fourth quarter, and also said deliveries would be about 10,000 less than that. Due to massive VIN registrations in the quarter, the Bloomberg model has projected approx. 80,000 production units for the first quarter, so it will be interesting to see if Tesla hits this area.

] (

 Source: Bloomberg Model 3 tracker, seen here) 
 in the coming weeks what is happening on Elon Musk's legal front, when the SEC continues its contempt the case against him for his tweets. It still amazes me that Elon Musk and his legal team are arguing about their conference call on Model 3 production this year, since he and his finance director answered a question about deliveries when he addressed the specific figures. Of course, since there have been at least six different guidance points delivered for this year, nobody really knows which one is the official at this time. 

 
  Finally, it is time for Tesla to make its final push as the 1st quarter comes close. It is definitely a question of demand that the US tax credit was halved and the sale of Model 3 in Europe and China, the latter still showing March deliveries possible from Sunday. With the company undergoing several strategic shifts in recent months, it will be interesting to see what the final figures are. What are your production and delivery estimates for the quarter? I look forward to your comments below and I add my final guesses when the period ends. 
  Notice:    I / We have no posts in any of the aforementioned shares and no plans to start any positions within the next 72 hours.    I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I do not receive compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with a company whose stock is mentioned in this article. 
  Additional Information:  Author's Additional Disclosure: Investors are always reminded that before making any investments, you should make your own regular due diligence in any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial advisor before making investment decisions. All material in this article should be considered as general information and not invoked as a formal investment recommendation.