Tesla Stock’s winning streak is over. Let the losing streak begin.
Tesla stock’s winning streak was snapped at 13 consecutive days on Wednesday, but with one drop over the past 14 trading sessions, shares have risen an incredible 40%. However, they fall again and now a losing streak looks set to begin.
Whether that losing streak is extended may depend on why Tesla stock had its winning streak. Analysts have some ideas about what led to the gains. The answers cause them to raise their target prices for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) shares.
“What has changed for the Street over the past month is the recognition with the Ford and GM supercharger partnership that Tesla’s sum-of-the-parts value is now finally starting to be tapped,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a Wednesday report.
A sum-of-the-parts, or SOTP, valuation looks at the various businesses operated by a company and values them separately to see if there is a difference between individual business valuations and a company̵[ads1]7;s valuation as a whole.
“This reminds us of when the street started to realize the margin story and valuation on [
Amazon
Web Services] for Amazon and the growth/margins of the Apple Services story in Cupertino,” Ives added.
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Analysts often value AWS separately from Amazon’s retail business. And Apple’s valuation multiple has widened as its services business has grown, boosting hardware sales.
Some of Tesla’s other service-like businesses include insurance sales, driver assistance software and electric car charging. Tesla essentially owns the largest chain of EV “gas stations” in America. Both Ford and GM negotiated pacts with their rival to allow their electric car drivers to use Tesla’s supercharger network.
The day after the Ford announcement was the start of the 13-day run for Tesla stock that took shares from $182.90 to $258.71. Shares closed at $256.79 on Wednesday.
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During the run, Ives raised his Tesla price target to $300 per share from $215 per share. He considers the share Buy. So does Daiwa analyst Jairam Nathan. He raised the Tesla price target to $285 from $185 on Wednesday.
Tesla’s “Technology Leader [is] manifests itself in revenue opportunities,” wrote Nathan. He expects up to $2 billion in annual charging revenue from Ford Motor ( F ) and General Motors ( GM ) drivers by the end of the decade.
RBC analyst Tom Narayan also rates Tesla stock a Buy, and he raised his price target to $305 a share from $212 on Thursday. Ford and GM deals are not responsible for the entire increase, Narayan is also focused on autonomous driving capabilities.
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“We strongly believe in robotic axis,” Narayan wrote. “Tesla’s leading FSD [Full Self-Driving] software should offset margin dilution from cheaper models and also position the company well as it transitions into a software business.”
Tesla sells its most advanced driver assistance feature, FSD, for $15,000 or via a monthly subscription. Tesla plans to advance FSD technology to the point where cars truly drive themselves — giving Tesla and others the ability to operate fleets of self-driving taxis. “Robotaxi could be 70% of Tesla’s value,” Narayan added in his report.
Tesla is training its FSD systems using company-created AI, and CEO Elon Musk told CNBC’s David Faber on May 16 that the company is having its “ChatGPT moment,” meaning people will realize the importance of Tesla’s AI capabilities as FSD advances to the point where cars can drive themselves.
Musk added in the interview that self-driving is a harder AI problem to solve than creating artificial intelligence that can write essays on demand, like ChatGPT.
The start of Tesla’s 13-day run also coincided with second-quarter sales guidance by AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA). The AI business is doing better than analysts and investors had imagined. Nvidia stock is up about 41% over the past 14 trading sessions, beating Tesla by about 1 percentage point.
Tesla shares fell 2.6% in early trading Thursday, heading for a second straight drop.
S&P 500
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was little changed, while
Nasdaq Composite
decreased by 0.2 percent.
The average analyst target price for Tesla stock is about $201 a share, according to FactSet, up about $9 in the past couple of days.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com