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Tesla Model Y wants to kill Crossover competition, here's why




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There is a lot of EV crossover competition coming down the pike, but don't expect established gas-engine automakers to suddenly breaks the EV market from Tesla.

Tesla Model Y will dominate the EV crossover category because it is the most recognized EV brand ̵

1; certainly in the United States

With over 500,000 VIN registrations for Model 3, that is not a huge leap of faith to see the Model Y – with a starting price of $ 39,000 for the 230-mile version of the – ongoing market share and mind share.

Crossover competition has arrived

Yes, the EV crossover competition has already arrived in the United States, including Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Kona EV, Jaguar I-PACE, and Kia Niro EV – not to mention Chevy Bolt in 2020 (with an upward revised range of 259 miles), and Nissan Leaf S Plus.

But keep in mind that all of the above EVs are from traditional car manufacturers. They are ICE car manufacturers first, EV manufacturers second. And right now EVs are a distant second in sales. Do not you believe me? Visit U.S. dealer many of these car manufacturers . There are wall-to-wall gasoline engines (with a few exceptions in markets such as Los Angeles).

Don't believe me still? Check out this sales chart from InsideEVs for the month of September. The much respected Audi e-Tron sold a total of 434 copies, Hyundai Kona EV 190, Jaguar I-Pace, 160, Kia Niro EV 90, etc.

Although you allow non-availability because the above is EV's Long established nameplate as Nissan Leaf ( in its current iteration as the 226-kilometer-long Leaf S Plus) and the BMW i3, which just come on the market, and the BMW i3 doesn't go to gangbusters, with sales of just over 1,000 Leaf and half of it for i3 in September.

The only EV manufacturer that actually got going at all in September was the Chevy Bolt * with 2,125 copies sold, according to InsideEVs.

And the model 3? Over 19,000 sold in September, about 8 times the closest competition. It's not ridiculous to expect the Model Y to post monthly figures, certainly higher than, say, a Bolt EV when production has increased. And probably much higher.

Model S and X will bow to Model Y, which will happen in the summer

Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding production of Model Y earlier than expected.

As for Model Y, we are also ahead of the plan for the Model Y preparations in Fremont and we have moved the launch timeline from all of 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there , but we are sure of summer 2020.

Elon Musk 24. October 2019, Third Quarter Notice Conference ( via Seeking Alpha ).

And Tesla's priorities are pretty clear as the company gets ready for Model Y production. In response to a question from an analyst on call October 24, Musk said:

Model S and X are really niche – they are really niche products . I mean, they are very expensive, made in low volume. To be perfectly honest, we continue to do them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They are really of less importance for the future.

Musk also mentioned that Tesla will "expand several facilities for Model Y production in Shanghai ."

Production error is the X factor

Of course, an increase in the deliveries of Model Y in, let's say, early in 2021 depends on model Y production being so clear as Musk claims. And the CEO has a tendency toward excessive expectations when it comes to expectations.

Excluding an unforeseen event, however, Tesla is more ready now for large-scale mass production than it was back in July 2017 when it faced a year of production hell and was about to become a high volume car manufacturer.

––

NOTES:

Long Range and Performance variants of the Model Y – which you can order now from Tesla's website – start at $ 48,000 and $ 61,000 respectively. [19659006] * In the spirit of full disclosure, I drive a Chevy Bolt 2018.

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There is a lot of EV crossover competition coming down the pike, but don't expect the established gas-engine automobile to suddenly breaks the EV market from Tesla.

Tesla Model Y will dominate the EV crossover category because it is the most recognized EV brand – certainly in the United States

With over 500,000 Model VIN registrations, it is not a huge leap of faith in to see the Model Y – with a starting price of $ 39,000 for the version of the 230 mile range – quickly amassing market share and mind share.

Crossover competition has arrived

Yes, the EV crossover competition has already arrived in the United States, including Audi e-Tron, Hyundai Kona EV, Jaguar I-PACE, and Kia Niro EV – not to mention Chevy Bolt 2020 (with an upward revised range of 259 miles), and Nissan Leaf S Plus.

But keep in mind that all of the above EVs are from traditional car manufacturers. They are ICE vehicle manufacturers first, EV manufacturers second. And right now EVs are a distant second in sales. Do not you believe me? Visit U.S. dealer many of these car manufacturers . There are wall-to-wall gasoline engines (with a few exceptions in markets such as Los Angeles).

Don't believe me still? Check out this insideEVs sales chart for September. The much respected Audi e-Tron sold a total of 434 copies, Hyundai Kona EV 190, Jaguar I-Pace 160, Kia Niro EV 90, etc.

Although you allow for lack of availability because the above is EV's Long established nameplate like Nissan Leaf (in its current iteration as the 226-kilometer Leaf S Plus) and the BMW i3, which is just coming on the market, and the BMW i3 will not go to gangbusters, with sales of just over 1,000 for the Leaf and half of that for i3 in September.

The only EV manufacturer that actually got going at all in September was the Chevy Bolt * with 2,125 copies sold, according to InsideEVs.

And the model 3? Over 19,000 sold in September, about 8 times the closest competition. It's not ridiculous to expect the Model Y to post monthly figures, certainly higher than, say, a Bolt EV when production has increased. And probably much higher.

Model S and X will bow to Model Y, which will happen in the summer

Meanwhile, Tesla is expanding production of Model Y earlier than expected.

As for Model Y, we are also ahead of the plan for Model Y preparations in Fremont and we have moved the launch timeline from all of 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there , but we are sure of summer 2020.

Elon Musk 24. October 2019, third quarter convening conference (via Seeking Alpha).

And Tesla's priorities are pretty clear as the company gets ready for Model Y production. In response to a question from an analyst on call October 24, Musk said:

Model S and X are really niche – they really are niche products . I mean, they are very expensive, made in low volume. To be perfectly honest, we continue to do them more for sentimental reasons than anything else. They are really of less importance for the future.

Musk also mentioned that Tesla will "expand several facilities for Model Y production in Shanghai ."

Production error is the X factor

Of course, an increase in the deliveries of Model Y in, let's say, early in 2021 depends on model Y production being so clear as Musk claims. And the CEO has a tendency toward excessive expectations when it comes to expectations.

Excluding an unforeseen incident, however, Tesla is more ready now for large-scale mass production than it was back in July 2017 when it faced a year of production hell and was about to become a high volume car manufacturer.

––

NOTES:

The long-range and performance variants for the Model Y – which you can order now from the Tesla Web site – start at $ 48,000 and $ 61,000, respectively.

* In the spirit of full disclosure, I drive a Chevy Bolt 2018.


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