Tesla Model Y: "Limited Production" ≠ Customer Deliveries
Cars
Published on October 15, 2019 |
by Zachary Shahan
15. October 2019 by Zachary Shahan
We published an article earlier today about delicious information we received from a historically reliable source in Tesla which indicated that it is a goal to start limited production of Tesla Model Y in Tesla Fremont plant sometime around Q1 2020. Our main source has previously shared detailed information about different types that proved to be accurate, some of them published and some of them not. Our source is not Tesla's top leader, and we all know that Tesla is a crazy company that can change plans (or get into challenging bottlenecks) as the seasons change, so first and foremost, I think it's prudent to be careful about leaking expectations about limited production of Model Y anywhere from 3 months from now to 6 months from now.
However, more importantly – and the reason for this article – I think people should be careful about serving production (er, ] ) and customer deliveries. Even though production starts to roll at a slow pace of 3-6 months, customer deliveries may not start for several months after that.
In fact, although production of Model Y beginning in or near Q1 2020 may seem far in advance Tesla's stated plans to start delivering Model Y to customers in "late 2020", it may not be is a lot of (or some) nonconformity at all. [ Update: I have been informed that the latest guidance for delivery of Model Y is by August 31, 2020. ] This leaked information may simply mean that Tesla is on track with its stated Model Y development and production. plans.
Another contributor of ours, Maarten Vinkhuyzen, provided some helpful comments on this topic during the article earlier today. His comments are based on previous announcements from Tesla, where the company has been accurate about Model Y statements, and his own move:
What was remarkable was that he was more cautious this time. Tesla talked about starting production, starting volume production, starting deliveries to the public, all at different moments in time. It made me think.
Timeline as I see it:
2020Q1
– start of production line,
– end-to-end system testing,
– programming, configuration, troubleshooting and setting.
2020Q2
– start of sample production,
– product QA, panel gap, paint job, fit and finish,
– production of test vehicles for collision, safety, cold & hot climate, endurance.
2020Q3
– start construction of Shanghai GF3 Model Y production line
– start of production,
– showroom and test run vehicle at USA dealers,
– first deliveries to employees.
2020Q4
– start of volume production,
– deliveries to employees Tesla and SpaceX,
– deliveries to first, preferred customers around Fremont.
2021Q1
– start of deliveries to the public at large.
As you can see, Maarten's forecast fits both the leaked information we received regarding "limited production" as well as Tesla's official "late 2020" (or August 31, 2020) commencement of delivery targets. I don't know enough about production to know if this timeline is realistic, but it seems logical to me.
The most important summary note to repeat is: “limited production” ≠ customer deliveries . We did not get information on when initial customer deliveries are expected, and we did not get enough insight into what is going on or planned to know if Model Y development and production is going faster than expected. We have also not heard from Tesla about this matter, despite the fact that we can comment on the subject.
We will update you as we learn more. In the meantime, it seems safe to say that 1) the Tesla Model Y production is still on schedule (as Elon Musk has stated every time he's asked about it), 2) it seems like it will happen in Fremont, and 3) there is a chance that it is ahead of schedule – but our information does not prove it. If you hear more, send us a note.
Follow CleanTechnica on Google News.
It will make you happy and help you live in peace for the rest of your life.
About the author
Zachary Shahan Zach is trying to help the community to help themselves one word at a time. He spends most of his time here at CleanTechnica as director and chief editor. He is also the CEO of major media . Zach is globally recognized as an electric vehicle, solar energy and energy storage expert. He has presented on cleantech at conferences in India, UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, USA, Canada and Curaçao.
Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA] – after many years of solar and EV coverage he simply has a lot of faith in this company and feels it is a good cleantech company to invest in. But he does not offer any investment advice and recommends not to invest in Tesla or any other company.
