Published on April 5, 2019 |
by Jose Pontes
5. April 2019 by Jose Pontes
After the December delivery deadline, the Dutch plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) had another sales increase last month, with 4,721
In the chart above, click "YTD" to see sales in Q1 and click "March" to return to March sales.
This good market development was mainly due to Tesla Model 3, which had 2195 deliveries in March, a new record for some Tesla in the Netherlands, and also allows Tesla sedan to last month's best seller in the country, all fuel categories including with an advantage of more than 1000 units over the Ford Focus 2 (1,187 units).
Two other long-range BEVs reached the PEV podium also with the Hyundai Kona EV (376 units) and Kia Niro EV (323 units, new personal best) underscores the changing market dynamics.
Surprisingly, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was also third, with 323 units, far from the Bestselling PHEV in this market. The Japanese SUV has cut its best performance since December 2016, when it lost the car's tax benefit due to changes in legislation. So, even without tax incentives, keep buyers (or should I say fleet managers?) Back to Mitsubishi dealers.
The podium holds Nissan LEAF (288 records) pumping decent performances, even with the threatening 62 kWh version just a few months away.
|1||Tesla Model 3||2.195|
|2||Hyundai Kona EV||376|
|3||Kia Niro EV||323|
|3||Mit. Outlander PHEV||323|
We see a new leader with Tesla Model 3 jumping to # 1, leaving the previous leader (Hyundai Kona EV) about 1500 units behind . In the regular market, the Californian is now fifth, just behind the # 1 Ford Focus (3,567 units), # 2 VW Golf (3,506), # 3 VW Polo (3,402) and # 4 Kia Picanto (3,109).  Will we see Model 3 finish the year on the regular podium?
The following positions remained largely the same, with the only change that the BMW i3 surpassed its Renault Zoe rival, climbed to # 7.
Outside the Top 10, the ranking is more dynamic, with the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV as jumps six positions to # 12, with 94 deliveries of March as the best performing platform since December 2016.
After the December delivery tsunami (2,621 units, the best result ever for a BEV) that brought it to # 2 last year, the Jaguar I-PACE went strong. But it's back in the rankings, in # 19, thanks to 40 deliveries in March.
In the big luxury car class, we still have the # 15 BMW 530e (33 units, 11% of all 5 series) of the competition, but the Porsche Panamera PHEV was up to # 18, thanks to 35 registrations, the nameplate's best result since last August. The PHEV version of Panamera actually represented 77% of all Panamera sales. For model S, it is out of the top 20, with only 32 units delivered (-96% YoY).
As for luxury SUVs, the 2019 bestseller is so far the Land Rover Range Rover PHEV, with 114 registrations, ahead of the Volvo XC90 PHEV (99 units), but last year, Audi registered e-tron 40 units and became the best seller of the month, so it would not be a surprise in a few months from now we see the german SUV not only in the top 20, but perhaps on top of this category. For people who ask for model X, news is not quite good, with only 22 units delivered in the first quarter, down 94% YoY, but more on this is below.
In the producer's ranking, Tesla is the new leader (26%), followed by Hyundai (15%) in 2nd and Volkswagen (10%) in 3.
Just outside the podium is Nissan (9%), Kia ( 8%) and Mitsubishi (8%)
Source: RAI Association and EV Volumes
Tesla Model 3 and ICE Conc. urransen
|1||Tesla Model 3||2,707||2||Volvo S / V60 PHEV||1 462|
|3||BMW 3 Series||1,031|
|4||Mercedes C-Class||] 942|
One of the questions about Model 3 in Europe, about the impact it should make on this side of the Atlantic, has been whether it will interfere with plug-in and gas / diesel (ICE) since the market in the same way as it does in the US. Or will it get worse because it plays away from home?
The answer is now beginning to be written. Comparing the first quarter Model 3 deliveries to the car's mid-sized premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to beat any premium ass outrun them all. Although the behavior is different from one ICE model to another. The Audi A4 registration dropped 47%, Mercedes and BMW nameplate stagnated (+ 2% and + 5%), and Volvo S / V60 twins are up 76%, with the PHEV version still in ramp mode (representing only 9% of all sales) . When the production of the Swedish PHEV is in cross mode, it expects to be responsible for at least 20% of the model's sales, which helps it run in front of the Germans. Although the revised BMW 330e, which said to start selling in the summer, could help BMW sports then overcome the Volvo model during # 2.
With luxury electric motors that lose generous tax incentives in January, sales were tied to tank this year, to the profits of ICE models and PHEVs.
And then, while Tesla Model S was in podium positions a year ago, the management disputes with the BMW 5 series, sales (32 deliveries) Sales
|1||BMW X5 ICE||290|
|2||[||[null,3,”0%”,1] 4||Land Rover Range Rover Sport PHEV||114|
|3||[null,3,”0%”,1] 4||Volvo XC90 PHEV||5||Land Rover Range Rover PHEV||63|
The same loss of generous fiscal incentives in January in the large luxury SUV segment led to a similar result in this category.
A year ago, Tesla Model X dominated the domain front and center in this category. This year, with just 22 deliveries, it is far behind the front windows.
Unlike the respective car category, where ICE is still king, here in Behemoth Land plug-in hybrids have a relevant role. While the leader, the BMW X5, is the entire ICE (for now), the Range Rover Sport PHEV represents 88% of the nameplate sales, while the Volvo XC90 has a steadily distributed sales between the ICE version and PHEV. Finally, the Range Rover has 76% of its total sales also from the PHEV version.
But one can always say that these nameplates were not affected by the fiscal changes that occurred at the end of the year, so it would be natural that they jumped in front of model X.
But what about 60 Jaguar I-PACE and 42 Audi e-throne registered so far this year? Both had the same tax cuts, and yet they were in front of the Tesla Model X, despite the fact that the first one was too expensive for what it was and the other had poor efficiency and continued bing in ramp mode.
Off topic Rant About the model S & X
I think this is just one symptom of a larger trend with respect to model S and X, that the sales report for Tesla Q1 2019 gives some light. While the model 3 part was not surprising, with the delivery up, the fact that the model S / X was over 50% was worrying and it is also evidence that the Tesla requirement is final.
There are several reasons to explain this:
– First, there are tax issues (both models have lost the benefits in the US and NL).
– Second, there is a long rumor Q2 / Q3 2019 update of both name tags.
– Thirdly, the fact that Tesla now has competition, something it lacked for several years, and even though they are not (yet) at the Tesla level, they are particularly good / different enough for people to get the best the luxury of many prefer one of the only landed beavers or waiting for those who are about to arrive, like the long awaited Porsche Taycan.
– The fourth reason is specific to model S and is called cannibalization, with slightly smaller, younger, and much cheaper model 3 siblings. Model 3 has almost the same range and can charge at higher speeds, and it is the ultimate "hot EV" today. There are only people who would normally go to Model S, who now buy Model 3.
And I have a final note about future plans for Model S / X. There have been rumors of drawing the Model S market.
I think it's a mistake, not just because the Mercedes S-Class type of customer would be less inclined to buy a Tesla, but also because it's a limited market (+/- 80,000 units / year for S- class), while lower class has much more room to grow – Mercedes E-Class beat 355,000 units in 2018.
With the current Model S sitting somewhere in no man's land, between the E and F segments, a bit like Audi A7, it would be wise for Tesla to go down a bit and meet the Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5 Series face-to-face, as model 3 does in its own category.
But for that, Tesla had to launch a competitive standard version of Model S, with about 300 miles of range and selling for about € 70,000-75,000.
Impossible? Will destroy the model's profitability? I have no idea, but one thing I know: The Tesla Model S and X demand limits are now being discovered, and the automaker must decide what the vehicles are – either niche players, Porsche vehicles, high margins, or targeted at BMW and Mercedes.