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Tesla Could Have Easily Sold A Record Of Vehicles But The Devil Will Be In The Details




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Tesla should announce its preliminary results for the June quarter in the next few days. After a disappointing March quarter when deliveries fall from almost 91

,000 vehicles in the December quarter to just over 63,000 three months later, the company is looking to bounce back with 90,000 to 100,000 in the June quarter.

Tesla could have easily sold a record number of vehicles in the June quarter since it had over 10,000 in transit at the end of the March quarter and a number of buyers may have pulled the trigger last month I will realize that increasing sales like this takes a lot of effort, but since the company did it in the December quarter it has the capability to do it. so a gain.

Expectations are lower than guidance

From an Oppenheimer note by Colin Rusch reported that, "the company distributed its internally gathered consensus, which is below FactSet's consensus. Tesla's analysis indicates 84,800 deliveries in the quarter (16,100 Model S & X's and 68,700 Model 3's) vs. FactSet puts 89,300 (16,400 Model S & X's and 72,900 Model 3's). ”

Rusch's note also included,“ For 2019, the Tesla consensus analysis is 344,700 deliveries (69,700 Model S & X's and 275,000 Model 3's) while FactSet is looking for 358,900 deliveries (69,900 Model S & X's and 289,000K Model 3's), "of which are below guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 for the year.

Update to the following paragraph after talking to Tesla.

Tesla compiles forecasts from approximately 20 sell-side analysts vs. the 6 to 8 that FactSet typically contains. While many analysts estimate this is publicly published, the ones that should not be found by Internet searches. Tesla is providing the numbers and not adding any additional information about them.

It is interesting that Tesla released a consensus analysis which may not be published since I have not found it on the SEC Edgar website, Tesla's investor relations website or the company blog. This looks like the company has selectively provided material information since the lower projections could be constructed as Tesla trying to lower expectations to the stock when it announces its preliminary results. I have emailed the company's press and investor relations department to get clarity on what has been provided and will update this article if I receive a reply.

How much of June quarter's sales were due to lower in transit inventory?

I believe that Tesla could very well beat expectations. However, one of the reasons could be due to having fewer cars in transit at the end of the quarter. Exiting March the company had about 10,600 in transit vs. just over 2,900 at the end of December (there had been over 11,800 at the start of the quarter) when another big push occurred to get cars delivered.

While I don't expect the transit number to fall to December's level since a large number are being delivered overseas, by half the amount it would add 5,000 cars to June quarter's results.

Will Model S & amp; X demand get back to 100,000 a year?

In the March quarter conference call Elon Musk said, "returning to the 100,000 a year annualized demand for S and X is what we anticipate. That's to the best of my knowledge. We don't have a crystal ball, but that's probably our best guess. ”

This was after Tesla only sold 12,091 in the quarter, a huge drop from 27,607 in the December quarter (down 56%) and from 21,815 in the March 2018 quarter (down 45%). This is due to the fact that the federal tax credit was cut from $ 7,500 to $ 3,750 on January 1 and sales in December, it will be critical for Tesla and investors to see the S and X ramp back up. Especially since the federal tax credit is being halved again starting on July 1 to $ 1,875.

All of these moving parts mean that it could take at least one or two more quarters or even a year to get a true read on Model S and X demand. If June's results were also helped by a pull ahead, then there could be another drop off in the September quarter. And the cycle could repeat itself in the December quarter; Tesla Model Y (19659001) Tesla Model Y (Photo by Hannes Breustedt / picture alliance via Getty Images)

picture alliance via Getty Images

Tesla should announce its preliminary results for the June quarter in the next few days. After a disappointing March quarter when deliveries fall from almost 91,000 vehicles in the December quarter to just over 63,000 three months later, the company is looking to bounce back with 90,000 to 100,000 being sold in the June quarter.

Tesla could have easily sold a record number of vehicles in the June quarter since it had over 10,000 in transit at the end of the March quarter and a number of buyers may having pulled the trigger last month vs. waiting until July or August due to the federal tax credit being halved again on July 1. I do realize that increasing sales like this takes a lot of effort, but since the company did it in the December

Expectations are lower than guidance

From an Oppenheimer note by Colin Rusch reported that, "the company distributed its internally gathered consensus, which is below FactSet's consensus. Tesla's analysis indicates 84,800 deliveries in the quarter (16,100 Model S & X's and 68,700 Model 3's) vs. FactSet at 89,300 (16,400 Model S & X's and 72,900 Model 3's). ”

Rusch's note also included,“ For 2019, the Tesla consensus analysis is 344,700 deliveries (69,700 Model S & X's and 275,000 Model 3's) while FactSet is looking for 358,900 deliveries ( 69,900 Model S & X's and 289,000K Model 3's), "of which are below guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 for the year.

Update to the following paragraph after talking to Tesla.

Tesla compiles forecasts from approximately 20 sell-side analysts vs. the 6 to 8 that FactSet typically contains. While many analysts estimate this is publicly published, the ones that should not be found by Internet searches. Tesla is providing the numbers and no additional information about them.

It is interesting that Tesla released a consensus analysis which may not be published since I found it on the SEC Edgar website, Tesla's investor relations website or the company's blog. This looks like the company has selectively provided material information since the lower projections could be constructed as Tesla trying to lower expectations to the stock when it announces its preliminary results. I have emailed the company's press and investor relations department to get clarity on what has been provided and will update this article if I receive a reply.

How much of June quarter's sales were due to lower in transit inventory?

I believe that Tesla could very well beat expectations. However, one of the reasons could be due to having fewer cars in transit at the end of the quarter. Exiting March the company had about 10,600 in transit vs. just over 2,900 at the end of December (there had been over 11,800 at the start of the quarter) when another big push occurred to get cars delivered.

While I don't expect the transit number to fall to December's level since a large number are being delivered overseas, by half the amount it would add 5,000 cars to June quarter's results.

Will Model S & X demand get back to 100,000 per year?

In the March quarter conference call Elon Musk said, "return two The 100,000 a year annualized demand for S and X is what we anticipate. That's to the best of my knowledge. We don't have a crystal ball, but that's probably our best guess. ”

This was after Tesla only sold 12,091 in the quarter, a huge drop from 27,607 in the December quarter (down 56%) and from 21,815 in the March 2018 quarter (down 45%). This is due to the fact that the federal tax credit was cut from $ 7,500 to $ 3,750 on January 1 and sales in December, it will be critical for Tesla and investors to see the S and X ramp back up. Especially since the federal tax credit is being halved again starting on July 1 to $ 1,875.

All of these moving parts mean that it could take at least one or two more quarters or even a year to get a true read on Model S and X demand. If June's results were also helped by a pull ahead, then there could be another drop off in the September quarter. And the cycle could repeat itself in the December quarter; The last time buyers will get any Federal tax credit for buying in Tesla.


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