A decade after the big recession hit the US economy, the job market shows no sign of falling in another downturn.
Weak employment in May had given rise to fears that the long-term expansion found out in the face of trade tensions and cooling growth abroad. However, job growth rose sharply in June, the Ministry of Labor reported Friday: Employers added 224,000 jobs, a larger figure than expected. And manufacturers, who use the use of President Trump's trade war, have been adding jobs at the fastest pace since January.
"There is a lot of talk about uncertainty, and perhaps it will lead to a weakening of the employment, but we have port I have actually seen it happen yet," said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
"Our country is doing extremely well financially," he told reporters Friday. At the same time, he repeated his claim to the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, saying that the effect on growth "would be like a rocket ship."
Fed makers are expected to trim prices at their meeting this month, although the strength of recent job figures makes it likely that the reduction will be modest. In the first instance, shares fell almost 1 per cent on the price outlook on Friday, but S & P 500 recovered to close 0.2 per cent.
The labor market has lost some momentum since last year, when tax cuts and increased public expenditure gave the economy a temporary lift. Employers have averaged 171,000 jobs over the past three months, down from 223,000 per month last year. Wage growth, which picked up at the end of last year, seems to have stopped again – average hourly wage growth was up 3.1 percent in June from the year before, a pace that barely barely lasted for months. Unemployment increased somewhat, although 3.7 percent is close to a multi-deck low.
Nevertheless, Friday figures were the last proof that the economy is gradually cooling, not because of a deep freeze. Separate data from the Department of Supply Management this week showed that both the production and service sectors grew in June with a number of measures, but slower than in May. The housing market has shown signs of weakness, but it has not yet deprived consumers of spending money, perhaps because layoffs are close to record highs.
"Everyone knew that the pace was going to slow," Brett Ryan said an economist at Deutsche Bank. "The question is whether it will slow down sharply."
That resistance is good news for workers, who take advantage of what is now least unofficial, the longest economic expansion on record.
The strength of the US economy is in stark contrast to the weakness abroad. Data released Friday showed that German factory orders fell sharply in May, the last sign of problems in Europe's largest economy. The European Central Bank is expected to take action to stimulate the economy when it meets later this month. China's production sector has also left itself, partly due to tariffs imposed by the United States.
The conflicting signals sent by the domestic and global economies complicate the decision made by Fed decision makers as they weigh on reducing interest rates on their meetings on July 30 and 31.
Investors had expected a cut, perhaps with so much as half a percentage point, but the strong work report could make such aggressive measures less likely.
"It's probably not on the agenda," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of the Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the possibility of a half-point cut.
However, it is likely that a quarter-point cut is. Many Fed officials are likely to focus on the weakness of hourly wages, which means that wages are unlikely to boost inflation. And in the biannual monetary policy report, which was released on Friday, the Fed said there were signs that "trade policy uncertainty could cause companies to delay investment decisions and reduce capital expenditures."
At Taco Metals, a Miami-based leisure equipment manufacturer, tariffs have resulted in higher costs for raw materials and parts imported from China and other countries. It has added fear from boat builders and dealers about how long the good times can last in an industry that is very sensitive to the broader economy.
"Tariffs just kind of forced people to think twice about, this will continue, Sa Bill Kushner a vice president of the company." It's starting to be more to hesitate on both the production side and the retailer side. 19659002] When customers withdraw, Kushner's company, which employs around 150 workers in Florida and Tennessee, does the same, holding on to some equipment purchases and waiting to fill some positions.
"It has just led us to take A little step back and rethink some of the direction and make sure we don't jump on the gun, "Mr. Kushner said." It's like, "Well, are we sure we'll do this, or should we try to outsource? ""
So far, however, there is little evidence that these concerns spread beyond production to the wider economy. Employees in the much larger service sector jumped back in June after unexpected weakness in May, and consumer confidence remains high. Leave a large collection of online retailers in Chicago last week, said Jason Guggisberg Vice President of National Accounts for Adecco, a staffing firm.
"They are very optimistic about a very nice second half of this year," he said. "They'll ride this economic wave as long as they can."
June marked the 10th anniversary of the official end of the great recession. Unless a recession has already begun (some economists often don't know for months), the current expansion is the longest on record.
Perhaps inevitably this milestone has questioned when the good times will end. But while economists say a recession is inevitable, research has found that periods of economic growth not only go out – something beyond power must lead to them.
The knit has been more remarkable for its durability than for its strength. Rental has been slower than in many previous recoveries, and wage growth has been anemic throughout much of the decade. Only recently have the financial gains filtered down to black and Spanish workers, those with less education, and others who face discrimination or other work barriers.
"A slowdown is worrying because you still have these groups and those workers who do not fully benefit from the recovery," said Martha Gimbel, economist at the job search site. "For many people, just do not go into a recession may not be good enough."
Recently, businesses have spread the financial benefits of turning to new talent sources. Mr. Guggisberg said that his clients, including warehousing and logistics companies, dropped educational requirements, trained workers who lack experience and ease up on drug testing.
Pool Scouts, a Virginia-based pool maintenance and repair company, experience the challenge first hand. Even after increasing wages, the company's franchisees have had higher turnover this year for hourly staff, who usually earn $ 12 to $ 18 per hour. And when they need to replace people, hiring can be a struggle.
"We see much higher no-show prices" for job interviews, Kevin Wilson CEO of Pool Scouts' parent company, Buzz Franchise Brands. "We are going to interview you, we take the time to come in and you do not show."
For Mr. Wilson's company, which also owns franchisees for swimming lessons and home cleaning, the strong economy creates a problem That may be less obvious: People have become reluctant to become franchisees because they have stable jobs and do not have to risk settling on their own.
"We have many people going through the process and then say:" You know, I'm fine in my job, I've just got one raise, "Wilson says." It's just not that incentive there anymore to do jumped, unlike the economy we had for two, three, four years ago. "
Matt Phillips and Jeanna Smialek contributed with reporting.