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Business

Stimulus and increased unemployment benefits unlikely




For the last quarter of a century, the federal government has come in with a kind of emergency aid when the economy is in mind. The next


recession

will probably break from that trend.

The dot-com crash of 2001 led the Bush administration to send $ 300 in stimulus payments to tens of millions of households. In the middle of the financial crisis in 2008 was


Federal Reserve

cut interest rates to historically low levels and strengthened financial markets. Then, in 2009, former President Barack Obama̵[ads1]7;s first major piece of legislation was a $ 830 billion package to curb the worst of the Great Recession.

The response in 2020 – when the coronavirus pushed the US into a sudden shutdown – saw the Fed and Congress support the economy with low interest rates, emergency loan programs, larger stimulus checks and increased unemployment benefits.

Now, as a growing number of economists see a new decline on the horizon, a similar level of government assistance is not expected – even with inflation at 41-year highs. This is because the looming recession will be one constructed by decision-makers in an attempt to combat inflation and its causes, leaving large federal aid measures unlikely.

It does not help the case is the fact that stimuli from the pandemic era have recently been investigated to stimulate current inflation.

“Democrats who put politics on party lines decided on trillions of dollars in ruthless spending,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a speech on inflation earlier this month.

Economists are slower to blame the stimulus, citing other factors such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and entangled global supply chains. Nevertheless, decades of high inflation may be enough to deter even Democrats from pushing with aggressive stimulus.

Another headwind for further relief is the fact that Republicans are expected to take back at least one chamber in Congress in the interim. It would put to power a party that has already been outspoken about avoiding new spending.

These factors are merging at a time when the US looks set to go into recession sometime in 2023. Economists fear that the Fed’s fastest rate hikes in nearly three decades will slow economic growth, freeze spending, hit corporate revenues and result in layoffs.

Nevertheless, the low probability of further stimulus may not matter if the economy avoids a recession, or only sees a mild one – a forecast held by a number of high-profile analysts.

Goldman Sachs wrote on June 20 that there is only a 30% chance that the economy will go into a downturn next year. JPMorgan has a similar rosy vision, but sees a greater chance of a decline over the next two years.

“There are many reasons to believe that there would be a mild recession,” Jason Furman, a former top economist for President Barack Obama, told Insider recently. He mentioned the savings many American households built up during the pandemic and the absence of stress in the financial sector.



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