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Business

Social Security’s cost of living adjustment can be in double digits, thanks to inflation




That would add around $ 175 to the average monthly retirement benefit, which is currently $ 1668, according to The Senior Citizens League, a group of lawyers who released the estimate on Wednesday. But it may still not be enough to cover seniors’ costs if price increases are not tamed in the coming months.

The estimate is based on the June reading for an inflation target used by the Social Security Administration to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment, or COLA. It rose by 9.8% over the last 12 months, compared to the annual jump of 9.1% for the broader and more well-known consumer price index for all urban consumers.

How much more retirees, Americans with disabilities and other recipients will actually receive will not be decided until the fall. The official adjustment, which the agency publishes in October, is based on average inflation in the third quarter measured by the consumer price index for urban workers and office workers, known as the CPI-W.

If inflation increases over the next three months, the 2023 adjustment could be 1[ads1]1.4%, the league said. If price increases are moderate, the benefit could be 9.8%.

In May, the league estimated that the adjustment would increase by 8.6%, based on inflation at that time.

ONE own estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a watchdog group, found that if the current inflation trend continues, the adjustment will be 11.4%. If inflation remains at the June level, the increase will be 9%.

Whatever it is, the adjustment is likely to be the largest since the early 1980s, the last time seniors received a double-digit boost.

Bills outweigh the benefits

Social security recipients received an adjustment of 5.9% for 2022. But inflation has surpassed that, leaving many seniors struggling to pay their bills, said Mary Johnson, a policy analyst in the league.

“Inflation has been as high and as much higher than the 5.9% COLA that people received, they have experienced a lack of benefits,” Johnson said. “If people do not have sufficient retirement or cash savings that they can easily access, people will spend more on consumer credit cards.”

Half of the seniors said they had to use emergency savings in the past year, according to a survey the league conducted between January and March. That compared to 36% in a survey done last year.

Almost half said they had visited a pantry or applied for food stamps, more than double the proportion in the 2021 survey. And several applied for help with medical and prescription drugs, as well as utility bills and rent.

Social security benefits have lost 40% of their purchasing power since 2000 due to high inflation, according to a separate study from the league. The purchasing power of the right fell by 10 percentage points between March 2021 and last March, the largest since the study began in 2010. The loss is even greater now since inflation has continued to rise this year, Johnson said.

Lower Medicare premiums possible

However, seniors should take a break when it comes to their Medicare premiums. They had to contend with a 14.5% increase in Part B premiums for 2022, which increased the monthly payments for those in the lowest income bracket to $ 170.10, up from $ 148.50 last year. A key driver for the increase was an estimated jump in spending due to an expensive new drug for Alzheimer’s disease, Aduhelm.
Since then, however, Aduhelm’s manufacturer has cut the price, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have limited coverage of the drug. The agency said it will take into account expenses that are lower than expected in the 2023 premium.

It expects the 2023 premium to be lower than this year’s premium, although the final decision will be made in the autumn.

Other after-effects

While many older Americans could spend the extra money, a major adjustment can actually hurt low-income seniors. This is because it can push them over income limits to qualify for government support, such as food stamps, or require them to start paying taxes on the benefits.

About 39% of seniors receiving help said their benefits were reduced due to the sharp adjustment for 2022, while 15% said they lost access to at least one program, according to a survey by the league.

Some experts are also concerned that a major adjustment could drain Social Security’s funds faster.

In their annual report, the program’s trustees assumed that inflation would be 4.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023 – although actual figures are likely to be well above that, Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and former public trustee . for Social Security and Medicare, said at a recent committee meeting of a responsible federal budget forum.

However, the social security fund is also expected to benefit from higher payroll tax revenues due to wage increases and from more income tax revenues from larger benefits paid to recipients.
Social Security will not be able to pay full benefit by 2035 if Congress does not act, according to the latest shop steward report.





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