By Fathin Ungku and John Geddie
Singapore reported poor second-quarter preliminary growth data on Friday, including the slower pace of annual expansion for a decade, boosting bets as a recession and monetary easing can come.
Quarterly expansion of 0.1% gross domestic product (GDP) was below 1.1% forecast in a Reuters survey and slowest annual growth since 2009 second quarter as it fell 1
The Ministry of Commerce also said that the economy fell 3.4% seasonally and annually – the biggest contraction of almost seven years compared to a prospect forecast of 0.1% growth and 3.8% in January-March.
"It's pretty disastrous … far below even the worst street forecasts," says Selena Ling, CFO and strategy at OCBC Bank.
The downturn in Singapore – often seen as a bellwether for the global economy's health – is the past the evidence that momentum has slowed across Asia, as the year-long trade war between the United States and China and the shift growth weigh on the region's export-relevant economies.
Elsewhere in Asia, analysts say South Korea can also flirt with a recession while China on Monday is expected to report its slowest economic growth of at least 27 years.
Ling and others say the main feature of Singapore is still the manufacturing sector.
In the second quarter, output fell 3.8% year-on-year after shrinking 0.4% in the previous quarter
The Singapore authorities have previously said they will undergo 2019 annual growth for the full year at 1.5% -2.5%, and some analysts say it may be a recession watch in 2020.
Standard technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
Ling said she expects the authorities to soon lower the growth forecast for the whole year to 0.5-1.5%.
The manufacturing production in electronics, the main driver of Singapore's economy over the past two years, declined for the sixth in the following month in May, while exports saw their biggest decline for more than three years.
ECONOMIC & # 39; STAND STILL & # 39;
Khoon Goh from ANZ, who described Singapore's economy as on a "still-still" in the second quarter, said in a note that with global trade "continued reeling" from trading tensions and wider global slowdown, continued drawbacks to growth risk.
The disappointing Q2 figures have several economists expecting the Singapore monetary authority, the central bank, to ease its currency-based monetary policy in its next policy statement, which would take place in October.
"It was one of four chances earlier that MAS will ease. Now it has increased to 40% that they will ease on or before October," Continuum Economics Jeff Ng told Reuters.
ANZ's note was headed "We now expects MAS to ease in October ", saying it expects MAS to reduce the rise in the policy band slightly to 0.5% per annum from 1.0%.
ING said the central bank could well before October.  "Today's data suggests that waiting would put the economy to a greater extent than necessary. An imminent movement therefore seems likely, "said a note.
MAS strengthened its monetary policy twice last year in its efforts to control rising price pressures and strengthen its currency in six years.