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Several economic signs point to a recession and higher interest rates

The Federal Reserve’s heavily telegraphed move to slow the pace of monetary policy tightening next week risks sending a message to markets that the central bank is well on its way to taming inflation and guiding the economy to a soft landing. Investors would do well to reconsider.

Regardless of the Fed’s pace of monetary tightening, the more consequential message the economy is now sending is that the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates beyond the roughly 5% range that markets expect to fight the current battle with inflation back closer to target levels. And that, in turn, suggests that at least a mild recession looks increasingly necessary for prices to finally cool down.

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