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Business

Redfin: These housing markets are most exposed to falling house prices




Home buyers had enough. Rising mortgage rates on top of record home price increases — up 42% since the start of the pandemic — pushed monthly mortgage payments to a level that is simply unaffordable for tens of millions of potential buyers. As more buyers take a rain check, the housing market correction only gets more intense.

This week we learned that, on an annual basis, mortgage applications are down 18%. While sales of new homes are down 17%, and starts of detached houses are down 16%.

Although housing transactions are plunging, we have still not returned to a balanced market. Inventory levels remain a staggering 49% below July 201[ads1]9 levels, giving most sellers – at least for now – enough leverage to hold off on selling below the market values ​​achieved earlier this year. That said, as inventory levels continue to rise, it’s possible that some regional housing markets could actually see year-over-year home price declines in 2023.

On Friday, Redfin released its “risk score,” which identifies the housing markets most at risk of a “housing downturn.” The higher a market’s “risk score”, the higher the likelihood that the market will see a decline in house prices from year to year. In total, Redfin looked at 98 regional housing markets and assessed factors including housing price volatility, average debt to income and housing price growth.

Among the 98 markets measured by Redfin, Riverside was most likely to see a “housing decline.” It was followed by Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Bakersfield, Phoenix, Tampa and Tucson.

“Popular migration destinations where home prices rose during the pandemic — including Boise, Phoenix and Tampa — are most likely to see the effects of a housing downturn intensify and home prices fall year over year if the economy slips into a recession, a scenario some economists say looks likely as inflation persists and stock markets stumble. Homeowners in those areas who are considering selling may want to list their homes soon to avoid potential price drops,” write the Redfin researchers.

The sellers least likely to see prices fall? Redfin says Akron. Not too far behind are markets such as Philadelphia, El Paso, Cleveland and Cincinnati. As the pandemic housing boom wore off, homeowners in these locations saw less investor activity and more modest levels of home price growth. In the midst of the boom, homeowners in places like Akron surely had FOMO as they watched their peers in Austin and Boise experience exorbitant levels of home price growth. But now homeowners in markets like Akron and Cleveland are likely grateful: Historically, the sharpest housing corrections typically come in the fastest-growing markets.

“Relatively affordable northern metros — several of them in the Rust Belt, such as Cleveland and Buffalo — are the most resilient in the event of a recession. Prospective homebuyers in these areas can move forward with confidence that they are less likely to see home values ​​decline,” writes Redfin -scientists.

Each quarter, Moody’s Analytics calculates an “overvalued” or “undervalued” figure for around 400 markets. The firm aims to determine whether fundamental factors, including local income levels, can support local house prices. It is only worrying when a housing market becomes significantly “overvalued”. The bad news? In the first quarter of 2006, the US housing market was “overvalued” by 14.5%. In the first quarter of 2022, Moody’s estimates that the median of the regional housing market was “overvalued” by 23%.

Simply being detached from underlying economic fundamentals does not guarantee that a market will see falling housing prices. However, as a market becomes significantly “overvalued,” it increases the chances of falling home prices if both a housing correction and a recession hit. That’s what Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi says Fortune that housing markets “overvalued” by more than 25% are likely to see 5% to 10% home price declines. If a recession occurs, the price drop can be as large as 15% to 20% in these markets.

Already, we’re seeing “booming” markets like Boise and Austin see the fastest corrections. Just look at the inventory. Over the past six months, inventory levels have risen 161% and 220% in Boise and Austin, respectively.

Earlier this month, John Burns told Real Estate Consulting Fortune that Boise is poised to be the first housing market to experience a year-over-year price decline. The property analysis company predicts that it could come as early as December. For that to happen, home prices in Boise must not only erase all gains from spring 2022, but also fall below December 2021 prices.

“You could make a good argument that in many housing markets the last 10% of home price growth was purely aspirational and irrational, and that will come off the top very quickly,” Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting “That’s exactly what we everybody’s watching right now.”

Do you want to stay up to date on the housing correction? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.

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