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Premarket shares: This is what judged Elon Musk’s Twitter deal

The S&P 500 was 14% higher and had not yet entered a bear market. The war in Ukraine and inflation concerns had pushed investors into sales mode, but sentiment had not collapsed. And Tesla, the electric car maker that is Musk’s main source of wealth, was announcing record profits.
In this climate, Musk’s offer to pay $ 44 billion for Twitter, to acquire the shares he does not own for $ 54.20 apiece, seems too high – and now he wants, not surprisingly, out.

“The market has changed dramatically since April,” said Daniel Ives, a strategist at Wedbush Securities.

Musk took steps late on Friday to end the deal to buy Twitter, claiming that the company is “substantially violating several provisions”[ads1]; of the original deal.

For several weeks, Musk has expressed concern, without any apparent evidence, that there are a larger number of bots and spam accounts on the platform than Twitter has said publicly. Analysts speculated that the match was an attempt to create a pretext to get out of a deal that now seemed overpriced.

Musk’s offer represented a premium of 54% over Twitter’s price before Musk began to build up its stake at the end of January, and a premium of 38% before his portfolio was revealed in April.

At the beginning of July, Twitter shares traded at just $ 38.23, down almost 12% since the beginning of the year and almost 30% below Musk’s offer price.

On the radar: Twitter shares would probably have done a lot worse if Musk had not played his. Investors have dropped fast-growing technology stocks – which are less attractive when interest rates rise – and social media companies have been hit hard.

Facebook’s Meta has seen its shares plunge almost 50% so far this year. Snapchat is 68% lower.

Then it is Tesla (TSLA) share, which Musk planned to rely on in part to fund the deal. It has also fallen sharply, falling by 30% since the beginning of April.

“The Twitter failure had a big impact on Tesla’s shares, and that’s Musk’s golden children,” Ives said.

Musk does not call his instability buyer remorse. But Ives thinks it is clear that it was an important factor.

What happens next: The stage is set for a long and dramatic legal battle. Twitter has said that they intend to force Musk to end the sale – and it is not difficult to see why. Twitter’s stock is down more than 5% in pre-market trading on Monday. With the takeover tied up in court, Ives believes it could drop another 30% to $ 25.

Covid fears and new technological action hit Chinese stocks

Chinese stocks fell on Monday as the threat of new Covid restrictions and a renewed regulatory offensive against major technology companies weakened investor confidence.

The latest: Casinos in the gambling hub in Macao were ordered to close for the first time since February 2020 due to a Covid outbreak, which led to the shares in the operating companies plummeting, reports my CNN Business colleague Laura He. Fears of new shutdowns in Shanghai also undermined the broader China market.

Covid fears and new tech crashes hit Chinese stocks and Macao casinos

To boost sentiment, China’s technology stocks plunged after the country’s antitrust regulator imposed new fines on a group of A-list companies, raising fears that Beijing does not plan to go easier on the country’s controversial internet giants.

Top officials had recently signaled relief from President Xi Jinping’s bruised technical breakdown and promised support for the Internet sector. The change in rhetoric raised hopes that Beijing would support private companies while trying to support the country’s economy.

But on Sunday, the State Administration for Market Regulation said it issued fines to technology companies including Tencent, Alibaba and Lenovo, claiming they had not properly reported merger and acquisition activity.

Shares of Alibaba fell 6% in Hong Kong on Monday. Tencent fell 3%. The Hang Seng Tech index fell around 4 percent.

My thought bubble: There was a resurgence in enthusiasm for Chinese stocks last month when investors bet that the worst Covid restrictions had passed and tried to take advantage of attractive prices.

The Institute of International Finance reported $ 9.1 billion in inflows into Chinese stocks in June. Emerging markets excluding China experienced $ 19.6 billion in outflows as recession anxiety dominated.

But to assume that Xi’s policy of eliminating Covid transfer was over would always be a risky game. So was to predict the government’s frosty relationship with the private sector had thawed.

Will a crucial Russian gas pipeline ever come back online?

Since the West hit Russia with bruised sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine, a frightening question has arisen: What if Russia shuts off gas to Europe, a nightmare scenario that will put a heavy strain on the region’s economy?

That possibility is subject to new hand pressure as the maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany begins on Monday. Officials and market monitors have expressed concern about whether the gas flow will start again when the repair period is over in 10 days.

“While this used to be a routine procedure that barely attracted attention, this time it is feared that Russia will not resume gas shipments afterwards,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note to customers.

Remember: Last month, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – said it was “in a gas crisis” after Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned gas company, cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60%. Gazprom blamed the move on the West’s decision to withhold vital turbines due to sanctions, but it was seen by politicians in Europe as a shot in the arm.

“Anything can happen. It could be that the gas is flowing again, even more than before. It could be that nothing is coming at all,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, said on Sunday. “We honestly always have to prepare for the worst and work a little for the best.”

Europe is fighting to wean itself off Russian energy, but it is particularly difficult to reduce its dependence on gas. The region received 45% of its natural gas imports from Russia last year, and it is currently urgent to fill up storage facilities ahead of the winter.

Reference prices for natural gas in Europe rose to the highest level since March last week. They can continue to climb in the coming days, increasing the pressure on governments to develop contingency plans.

“Concerns are likely to push gas prices further up until it becomes clear what will happen to gas supplies once maintenance work is completed,” Commerzbank said.


New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks at a conference on the transition away from Libor at 2 p.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: PepsiCo (PEP) reports earnings before a series of bank results later this week.

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