Eurozone PMI falls to 20-month low as recession outlook rises
Business activity in the eurozone fell further than expected last month, raising the likelihood of a recession in the 19-member common currency bloc.
S&P Global’s final composite PMI (purchasing managers index) for the euro zone, seen as a reliable gauge of economic health, fell to a 20-month low of 48.1 in September from 48.9 in August, less than a preliminary estimate of 48.2 . Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.
– Elliot Smith
Shares on the way: Nordnet down 6%, Avanza down 5% after September figures
Swedish financial companies Avanza and Nordnet fell 5% and 6% respectively in early trade after publishing their monthly figures for September.
At the top of the Stoxx 600, German chipmaker Infineon gained 4%.
Several German companies are planning price increases, says the Ifo Institute
Several German companies plan to raise prices in the coming month, according to a new Ifo Institute survey published on Wednesday.
Economy-wide price expectations for the coming month reached 53.5 points in September, up from a seasonally adjusted 48.1 in August. The food price indicator stood at a full 100 points, up from 96.9 in August.
“Unfortunately, this probably means that the wave of inflation is not about to subside,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, head of forecasting at Ifo.
“Especially when it comes to gas and electricity, the price pipeline has not yet been exhausted.”
– Elliot Smith
CNBC Pro: Bank of America reveals its global picks for this quarter, giving one stock over 100% upside
Interest rate increases, skyrocketing energy prices and political unrest in some parts of the world have hit shares going into the last quarter of this year.
To help investors navigate the volatility, Bank of America has revealed its top “short-term stock recommendations” for the next quarter, which it expects will “significantly outperform” its peers.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read about five of their stock picks here.
– Ganesh Rao
The dollar index falls back to 110
One factor helping equity markets on Tuesday could be a slightly weaker dollar, which is down for the fifth day in a row.
The DXY US Dollar Currency Index fell 1.5% in afternoon trade to 110.06. The index traded as high as 114.78 last week as there were concerns of a failure in the UK government bond market.
The British pound and the euro were each up more than 1% against the dollar on Tuesday. The dollar was also down against the Japanese yen.
—Jesse Pound, Gina Francolla
CNBC Pro: Market Heading for ‘Best Week of the Year,’ Pro Says – Names 2 Stocks to Play It
Markets veteran Phil Blancato, whose firm has more than $4 billion in assets under management, said he expects next week to be a “turnaround week” for the markets.
Investors should take the chance to “jump into the market,” he said, as he named two stocks to take advantage of the rally ahead.
Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Zavier Ong
Stifel’s Barry Bannister says there is “room for a rally” after two straight days of gains
Stifel’s chief strategist Barry Bannister said stocks could move ahead after this week’s sharp two-day rally.
“I don’t think you have to worry about a recession until the second half of ’23,” Stifel equity strategist Barry Bannister said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.” “So there is room for a rally as you go into the beginning of next year.”
The strategist said there could be a “conditional pause” at the December meeting as the Federal Reserve assesses the impact of its rate hike plan on inflation.
“Leading indicators of inflation are all falling, global liquidity has tightened quite a bit. They don’t want to kill the patient to cure the disease,” Bannister said. “And if the data continued on its way, the hiatus would last, and if the data didn’t go their way, it would wander again and we’d go right back down.”
CNBC Pro: This is not the market bottom, says Morgan Stanley, and mentions three things that must happen first
It is unlikely that there will be a sustainable market bottom unless three conditions are met, according to Morgan Stanley.
“We … remind readers that the final stages of every bear market are very challenging to trade as volatility becomes extreme,” they wrote. “None of the conditions we’ve been looking for to end this bear market are in place.”
Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Weizhen Tan
European markets: Here are the opening calls
European shares are heading for a lower opening on Wednesday, bucking a positive trend seen in the previous session.
Britain’s FTSE index is expected to open 27 points lower at 7,059, Germany’s DAX 59 points lower at 12,606, France’s CAC 40 down 25 points at 6,005 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 112 points lower at 21,426, according to data from IG.
The declines expected on Wednesday come after European markets rallied yesterday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 closing 3% higher. Travel and leisure stocks jumped 6.1% to lead gains as all sectors and major bourses moved into positive territory.
The British pound rose on Tuesday after the British government’s dramatic policy U-turn and UK government bond yields also fell after a sharp sell-off last week.
Data released on Wednesday included final Eurozone PMI data for September and German import and export data for August. The income comes from Tesco and Bang & Olufsen.