Oil markets further advanced & # 39; & # 39; Interruptions & # 39; & # 39;
Already because of excessive volatility, the oil market could become even more volatile in the coming months, according to the overall strategy of JTD Energy Services, with geopolitical disturbances that pushed prices higher.
"It's almost like 2011 when (former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi) was topped. If … Libya comes into play, it'll just add more density to the market," John Driscoll told CNBC.
The situation in Libya escalated surprisingly quickly last week when Libya National Army, a formation affiliated with the Eastern Libyan government, launched an attack on the UN-recognized cabinet in Tripoli. The attack followed a statement by LNA leader General Khalifa Haftar that Libya will soon have a single government and hopes a negotiation between the two rival governments.
Of course, Venezuela and Iran continue to be the usual suspects when it comes to near future oil price forecasts with US sanctions aimed at the oil industry in both countries as a contagious tool.
"It's terrible there [in Venezuela]," Driscoll said. "Oil production falls down, then you have this wave of electrical outages that have halved its exports."
In fact, the latest shipping data from Reuters and TankerTrackers.com showed that Venezuela's march oil exports remain surprisingly stable in February despite the string of blackouts, with a daily rate of around 900,000 bpd.
For Iran, the analyst said Washington's goal of reducing the country's oil exports to zero was "unrealistic" and "possibly even delusional", adding that high prices increased, the more demand there would be for Iranian oil, and it will "find a withdrawal. "
Brent crude passed US $ 70 per barrel for the first time in months a few days ago, and now, thanks to Libya's new, it has continued to rise. According to Driscoll, this price recovery will not be as short-lived as he himself predicted a month ago, thanks to the events in Libya, Iran and Venezuela.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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