A full-fledged war between the United States and Iran will immediately affect global crude prices, as the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has already shown. The only question now is how high it could go.
Earlier in June, an advisor to Iran's chief executive Ali Khamenei warned that oil prices would rise to levels "unbearable" for the United States and its allies, and are probably top $ 100 per barrel when and if "first bullet" is fired in the Gulf.
Both the raw criteria, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent, concluded weekly green trading after Tehran shot down a US surveillance dragon over the Hormuz Strait, an important oil supply waterway. The biggest gain was seen just after the incident on Thursday, when WTI increased more than 4 percent and Brent was above 3 percent. These prices were the highest level achieved since late May, with the WTI at $ 57.43 a barrel and Brent at $ 64.45 as trading closed on Friday.
The start of a war between the United States and Iran can lead to disturbances that would advance the oil markets, analysts have told RT.
"Certainly, markets will react fairly bullishly, especially if the hormone flow is closed. We could easily see the oil price at the top $ 100-a-barrel," Lipow Oil Associates president Andy Lipow says. An open conflict will not break out, oil prices could increase more than $ 100 if it does, according to Jeffrey Tucker of the American Institute of Economic Research. However, it may take several months to reach these levels, adding the analyst.
"We could see a real spike of the oil price if a real war broke out," he said, pointing out that "No one is ready for the supply chain disturbances" and will avoid an open confrontation.
] Such crude prices were last seen in 2011-2013 and before the 2014 crash in the oil market, but even if the possible increase occurs, the oil will not remain so high for a long time, According to the research
The bullish trend will depend on the length of the supply disorder in the Middle East, says Lipow. "I expect it would last for several weeks or a month or two, until the hostilities went down and the currents were reopened and safe for passing vessels," Lipow told RT.
At the same time, Tucker tells us that the temporary tip will last up to half a year as markets gradually stabilize.
Higher oil prices will certainly benefit oil producers outside the Middle East and the Hormuz stream.
At the same time, chain disturbances can prevent sales of oil and oil from Kuwait and UAE as they rely on transition of supplies through these waterways, Lipow told RT.  "I don't think this conflict is good for anyone, but I guess there's a chance that US manufacturers might think it's in their interest," says analyst Tucker. He added that no one is currently ready for such disruptions in the oil supply chains, and that could be one of the reasons why the United States withdrew from striking back on Iran.
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