Norway update: Tesla and Chinese EVs could spell doom for Legacy Automakers
Cars
Published on October 19, 2019 |
by Paul Fosse
19. October 2019 by Paul Fosse
Here at CleanTechnica, we have followed Norway closely, since this is the first country to hit the tipping point where EVs and PHEVs have become the standard purchase for ordinary people instead of the exception, because of a generous combination of incentives and a long history of awareness. My recent article on Norway highlighted the Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus coming to the country, which hasn't taken off as I thought it could – most are still willing to pay a little more for the Model 3 Long Range. This May article highlighted a local story of a major Mercedes dealership in Oslo reporting the sale and resulting in layoffs. Today, a local sale at the end speculates for some car brands that are behind to electrify the lineup.
So Mazda and Ford are first and foremost candidates, but also Mercedes, Toyota, BMW, Opel, Renault and others.
– Tesla Driver ?♂️???? (@M_xalher) October 18, 2019
The article mentions the news that two new Chinese car manufacturers are coming to Norway next year. It is in addition to Chinese brands Chery, MG and Volvo / Polestar. Of course, the Tesla Model 3 is the best-selling car in Norway now (by far), and Tesla looks to expand its leading car manufacturer position when it can start shipping the Model Y to Norway, either in 2020 or 2021.
Who is going to be the loser with all these new cars coming to Norway? Since the country has set an ambition that only electric cars will be sold from 2025, brands that have exciting and affordable electric vehicles will do well, and brands that do not lose their share or close the store completely. To be honest, why would anyone buy a petrol or diesel car today, and the economy is so terrible for them?
The article mentions that Norway must keep its incentives to reach the 2025 target. It also states that Norway is not an emerging market where overall sales are growing rapidly, so when new brands take a share, existing brands must lose a relatively equal number of sales.
The article does not mention brands that can leave the market, but the Twitter user "Tesla Driver" / @M_xalher speculates that Mazda and Ford are the main candidates, but also Mercedes, Toyota, BMW, Opel, Renault and others are at risk. Renault has just refreshed the Zoe EV and sold over 2,000 units this year, so it shouldn't have to leave the market. Similarly, with its Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt clone), Opel should be able to build more EVs. But I agree that the others are at risk.
Norway has been clear for years that it wants to switch to 100% EVs quickly, and when manufacturers made good cars that proved it could happen, consumers came through and bought them. Now we see how the market will punish the laggards who did not think that Norway could do it. Many believed that the country had to give up its dream and let gas and diesel sales continue because either the cars could not be built or people would not buy them, or the charging infrastructure or the grid would not be ready. The doubters had many reasons why the country could not convert to electric vehicles. The doubters have been proven wrong, and those who invested with the doubters now have to pay pipes.
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About the author
Paul Fosse A software engineer for over 30 years, first developing EDI software, then developing computer warehouse systems. Along the way, I've also had the chance to help start a software consulting firm and perform portfolio management. In 2010, I became interested in electric cars because gas was expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and was interested in solar, mainly because it was a threat to my oil and gas investments. Follow me on Twitter @ atj721 Tesla investor. Tesla reference code: https://ts.la/paul92237ebrit19659020??(function(d, s, id) {var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName (s) [0]; if (d.getElementById (id)) return; js = d.createElement (s); js.id = id; js.src = "http://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore (js, fjs );} (document, & # 39; script & # 39 ;, & # 39; facebook-jssdk & # 39;));
