Tesla CEO Elon Musk expects to start converting the company's electric cars into fully self-propelled vehicles next year as a joint plan to create a network of rugged taxis to compete against Uber and other equestrian services.
The vision separated Monday during an event at Tesla's Silicon Valley headquarters requires more troops – something that the eager investors and consumers who see Musk as a technological genius are often willing to take.
But self-driving car experts fear Musk seeks public safety in an attempt to increase Tesla's share and sell more of the company's electric cars. This is among the common questions about whether the 1
"It sounds like a pipe dream that he sells people," said Raj Rajkumar, an electrical and data processor at Carnegie Mellon University. "I think it's basically overpromising, which is typical of Elon Musk."
To prove their skeptic errors, Musk must persuade regulators that Tesla's technology to potentially transform hundreds of thousands of electric cars into self-propelled vehicles will produce robots that are safer and more reliable than humans.
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And to do that, Musk must be right in his effort that Tesla has come up with a better way to produce self-driving cars than almost everyone other of the more than 60 companies in the United States are working towards the same goal.
Some of these companies aim to get their fully autonomous cars start carrying passengers in small geographical areas as early as this year, but many experts do not think they will be widely used for a decade or more.
Unlike most of the other companies, Tesla's cars do not come with the light beam sensors Lidar as many indus try experts consider an important equipment for robotic vehicles to navigate on the road.
Musk trashed Lidar as an "idiot's errand" and "liberation stupid" in a closure of companies like Google spin-off Waymo and General Motors Cruise Automation that include light beam sensors in their systems.
"They're going to dump Lidar", Moscow's insured investors and analysts gathered at Tesla Palo Alto, California, office for the 2½ hour presentation.
Musk largely known for his swagger as much as his smarts, spent much of his time trying to persuade both investors and consumers that he had found a better way to learn robots to drive.
"It's basically crazy to buy something other than a Tesla," said Musk at some point, claiming that buying a vehicle from any other automaker would be like getting a horse.
Musk's quasi sale came two days before Tesla is expected to report a disappointing performance for the first three months of the year, analysts questioned by FactSet predicted a net loss of $ 305.5 million in the first quarter based on disappointing car sales, a setback after Musk promised to enter In the second half of last year, Tesla would be profitable from that point in time.
Tesla's stock fell by almost 4 percent to close Monday at $ 262.75.
From Musk's vantage point, Tesla has a great advantage over autonomous vehicle competitors because it Gathering a tremendous amount of data in the real world, In the quarter he said Tesla will have 500,000 vehicles on the road, each equipped with eight cameras, ultrasonic sensors and radar data collection to help build seals the cabinet's neural network, which will serve as the digital equivalent of self-driving car awareness.
The network allows vehicles to recognize images, determine which objects are and find out how to handle them. To become fully self-propelled, the cars also need a special computer that fits behind the glove box and is powered by a special chip. Musk shears are better than any other processor in the world "by a large margin".
Currently, self-propelled computer costs $ 5,000, but the price rises to $ 7,000 if installed after delivery.
Finally, Tesla will provide software updates to these computers to enable their electric cars to be powered by a robot without a person in position to take over in case something goes wrong. There will be a small chance that some "fender benders", Musk confirmed Monday, and stated that Tesla will be responsible for the accident caused by a vehicle under the control of his robot.
"People will die," Rajkumar told. "I can tell you right now. Because in the real world hidden things happen."
Musk predicted that the technology for fully self-propelled Tesla will roll out at some point from April to June next year. Then, Tesla must get regulatory approval for the completely autonomous cars to drive on roads, which Musk predicted would happen in a few states by the end of next year. He decided not where Tesla will try to get approved first.
California, Tesla's largest US market, requires fully autonomous cars to drive safely on public roads, but most other states are not as strict. And experts say it's not a federal law that requires pre-approval for complete autonomous driving, as long as a vehicle meets federal security standards, as Teslas already does.
Within three years, Tesla will produce self-propelled cars that do not even have steering wheel or brake pedals in them, said Musk.
If allowed on the roads, fully-wheeled cars will give Musk the opportunity to carry out his plan to expand to the booming market with a sleek Teslas fleet. Owners of Teslas with the company's self-propelled computer could plug into an app-based network to pick up ticket-paying passengers when they did not need to use the vehicle.
Musk theorizes that a hiking service similar to Uber and Lyft will increase Tesla's revenue and make it easier for the company to sell their cars to consumers who can effectively reduce the cost of ownership by making money from the site. Tesla will also get 20% to 25% of each car price in the network.
Tesla also intends to convert all electric cars under lease contracts to be converted into robot axes upon return.
Uber and Lyft also consider driverless cars to be one of the keys to making money from their still unprofitable services, but have not set a specific timetable to achieve that breakthrough while continuing to work on their own autonomous technology.
Waymo rolled out a walking service using self-driving vehicles late last year in the Phoenix area, but it is only available to a small pool of passengers previously enrolled in a test program. And all the cars in Waymo's riding-search service still have a man behind the wheel ready to take control.
The Waymo cars also have Lidar, some experts who are convinced, must be part of a completely self-driving car, despite Musk's colorful claims otherwise.
"Vehicles that do not have Lidar, which does not have advanced radar, which has not taken a 3-D map, are not self-propelled vehicles." Ken Washington, Ford's senior technical officer, said during a recent interview with Recode. "They are good consumer cars with very good driver-assisted technology."