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Morgan Stanley Bear warns that his gloomy scenario for 2019 takes shape




Why do stocks stock out quickly?

Last week, the prices of Mexico increased the chances that the Fed would cut prices. Investors obviously like it. So, stocks rallied. This week, Trump supports the same rates. The investors seem to be so too. Remain rallying again.

Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management, please explain.

"The market wanted to go up. I don't think that means anything happened. We just use those things as a reason after we look smart," wrote New York City-based investment adviser. "That's how it works. It is not meant to be intellectually satisfactory. It's supposed to take money away from people who think they can explain things. The worst traders and managers I know are guys with answers to all this. Get used to it. "

Instead of" looking for you smart ", let's allow our call the day to give some forward-looking taste of where he thinks all this is on the way. [1[ads1]9659002] Mike Wilson – greeted over Finance Twitter as "Wall Street's most bearish analyst" – says there is a big risk out there for investors …

That he's right.

"Macro and microeconomic data continue to worsen," writes Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, pointing to weak durable orders, disappointing capital expenditures, soggy retailing, lack of shipping and a "very soft" job number proving that an economy is running out of smoke .

"This increases the risk of my core view playing out – that companies will do everything they need to protect margins," Wilson wrote. "And while work is the last lever they pull, they'll use it if they need it."

Don't be so quick to blame commercial tensions in the US and China, either, he said. "The economy was already braking, and escalation potentially makes it worse."

And if you wait for lower interest rates to light a rally … not.

"A price cut after a long touring bike tends to be negative for stocks, as opposed to a break like in January, which is typically positive," Wilson said. "I have been vocal about the likelihood that US earnings and business cycles will disappoint this year. In particular, I have argued that the other half of the recovery many companies have promised and investors expect is unlikely to be realized."

He doesn't see enough evidence to change themselves. In fact, Wilson's team is looking for GDP to beat the other half.

"If you listen to what the markets have really said this year, they seem to agree that growth will disappoint if it's a trade deal or not," he said. "Therefore, we continue to recommend investors to stay defensive … with overweight in areas such as tools and consumer founder."

The Market

The Dow

DJIA, + 0.75%

S & P

SPX, + 0.98%

and Nasdaq

COMP, + 1.83%

has a positive start. Oil

CLN19, -0.19%

similar to lower, while gold

GCQ19, -1.05%

risks breathing. The dollar

DXY, + 0.25%

is up after last week's work-related hit and the Mexican peso

USDMXN, -2.1700%

is on a tear.

Europe shares

SXXP, + 0.21%

is up and Japan's Nikkei

SHCOMP, + 0.86%

led the rest of Asia

ADOW, + 1.09%

higher.

Chart

Put the stock market on the back burner and focus on refinancing the home loan. As our Day Chart by Black Knight shows, nearly 7 million people are now entitled to save at least 75 basis points, which is one million more than a week earlier.


Read: Price decline to 2 years low – but consumers can't bite

Buzz

Where does Microsoft

MSFT, + 1.91%

goes from here? The software giant grew up in the record area and is now valued at more than $ 1 trillion. Amazon

AMZN, + 4.41%

and Apple

AAPL, + 2.37%

both well below their heights, are distant and third, respectively.

"The Golf On Your Own Damn Dime Act of 2019" – It is former White House Ethics Chief Walter Schaub who criticizes Trump for the pricy golf excursions. "What about a law that says anytime POTUS visits a property on or next to a golf course, he / she must pay for any costs incurred from the moment he / she left the White House until he / she returned. in the White House? "Schaub tweeted after Trump ran up a big tab on his visit recently to his course in Ireland.

How did his round go? Here's one of the lowlights:

State

$ 150 billion – That's how much video game space will be worth this year, according to researcher Newzo's latest estimates. The industry's largest annual event – Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) – starts Tuesday. Get ready for lots of product buzz.

The tweet
The economy [19659015] A light data calendar today includes Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10:00 Eastern. Retail is the big number to look at, but it's not until Friday. Before that, the consumer price index will be released on Wednesday.

Random Reader

While much of the rest of the world includes credit cards and virtual payments, Germany is stuck with hard, hard money.

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