Marijuana shares weekend investor roundup: Analysis of the week's most important events in the cannabis industry (February 16)
PotNetwork is happy to bring you our Marijuana Stock Weekend from our collaboration publication Grizzle. Grizzle journalist and research director Scott Willis covers the marijuana stock market in depth, with over 12 years of institutional investment management experience in analyzing both debt and stocks. He has held leading investment research roles at Credit Suisse and TD Asset Management. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst and has been featured on BNN Bloomberg and CBC. For more of Scott's writing, check out the Grizzle language of new money.
Bottom line: Will Canopy Growth's earnings drive the industry to new heights, or disappointing results will throw cold water at this earliest 2019 rally. Read more to find out …
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Bottom line: Aurora has come as a major player in the recreational market and captures ~ 20 percent market share of accumulation volumes in the quarter ending in December. 19659005] However, the rapid turnaround in turnover and most importantly the investors have been waiting for patiently is on the way to taking much longer than expected. Investors now have to wait until 2020 for positive earnings and EBITDA. The management originally said they would be profitable by the end of 2017.
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Bottom Line: The Special Committee's finding confirms that the brief report on short-term capital management was nothing more than Aphria's accusation overpaid for its Latin American ( LATAM) assets hidden as a survey report on a global fraud site.
As Grizzle claimed and third parties have confirmed, Aphria (NYSE: APHA, TSE: APH)
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Bottom line: Some bank analysts finally come into the notion that their Pink estimates must come down to reality. Scotia cut its revenue forecast for Canopy by 30 percent in the next quarter and we believe the black market will retain at least 70 percent of the cannabis market in 2019. Be prepared for an uneven roll-out of the recreational market throughout the rest of the year. [19659005]
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Bottom Line: The most interesting part of this story is that hemp with less than 0.3 percent THC can mature during storage and transportation and end up having over the legal limit to THC. This creates serious problems for CBD manufacturers and hemp fishermen during today's nationwide ban on THC content over 0.3 percent.
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Bottom Line: Britain, like Europe, is considering a product with a cannabinoid that falls under the" novell ingredient "regulation. CBD-based foods can be out of the market in the UK and other parts of Europe for up to three years until they get the status of "Novel Food", which means they can be sold with little regulation. You will probably find CBD products in stores, no matter when the gray market usually develops while waiting for regulations to catch up.
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Bottom Line: On January 19, Canada approved the first import of cannabis from Colombia. The dried flower was for research purposes only and may only be sold to medical patients under Colombian regulations.
The real landmark for looking for is when Colombia approves recreational exports and a company imports successful product to Canada. Then we can say that Colombia has come as a global competitor to Canadian LP.
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Weekly marijuana stock performance
Marijuana shares surpassed the broad market this week up 3.5 percent compared to S & P 500 up 2.5 percent and TSX up 1.3 percent. For the second week in a row, Canadian names have surpassed US multi-state operators (MSOs).
Interestingly, the four largest Canadian LPs so far this year have surpassed both the cannabis index as a whole and the US MSOs by 11 percent and 24 percent, respectively. We believe that US MSOs will begin to surpass if STATE's trades allow cannabis banking to pass, possibly in 2019.
Market outlook
Stocks are looking back in the first quarter after selling so heavily in November and December. The sentiment becomes more positive with the overall market, so it is difficult to see the shares go through another 20 percent + sales in the first quarter without further negative earnings news or a global recession. A full purchase of a cannabis company by a consumer packaged good or pharmaceutical company would be a strong positive catalyst for the entire industry.
From a basic perspective, be careful about owning cannabis stocks in the next two quarters of earnings. Distribution bottle necks and a state monopoly do not sound good for licensed manufacturers' ability to meet or exceed high earnings estimates, but so far, the market has been pleased with
Long-term, with the Canadian market, we legalized expectation of retail and wholesale price compression from a legitimate overshoot in the second half by 2019. Falling cannabis prices will push producer shares later in 2019. After a shakeout, the remaining shares will be better positioned as long-term purchasing opportunities.
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