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JL Warren Q3 Tesla Update



Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong attend the groundbreaking ceremony at the Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory in Shanghai, China on January 7, 2019.

Aly Song | Reuters

According to fresh estimates from JL Warren Capital, Tesla sales in China were to hit around 6,400 vehicles this quarter, with most orders coming in on the most affordable electric vehicle, the Model 3 sedan.

The lowest-priced standard-sort version of that car, which retails for RMB 364,000 (around $ 51

,000 today). is already a big hit in China. Orders sparked after Beijing gave Tesla, and dozens of other electric vehicle manufacturers there, a healthy tax cut earlier this month. The "purchase tax" exemption lowers the cost of buying a Tesla in China, but around RMB 99,000 (about $ 14,000).

However, Tesla's Shanghai plant is unlikely to be able to make Model 3s in high volumes – meaning 1,000 to 2,000 cars per week – by mid-2020, the investment research firm predicts.

China represents a critical growth market for Tesla, and CEO Elon Musk talked about the company's plans there on its last revenue in January. "We have to bring the Shanghai plant online," Musk said. "I think that's the biggest variable to get up to 500,000 plus a year. Our car is just really expensive to enter China. We have import duties, we have transport costs, and we have higher labor costs here." 19659002] Musk told investors during that call that Tesla should be able to hit a Model 3 production rate of 1,000 or even 2000 cars per week in Shanghai by the end of 2019.

After analyzing public records and interviewing people with first-hand knowledge of Tesla's "Gigafactory 3," JL Warren wrote in a note to the company's customers:

"Small-scale testing should start in the fourth quarter with meaningful production increases not expected before Q1 and Q2 2020, with the goal of 2000 units per week in June 2020. Unlike the fully automated process in California, GF3 will be semi-automated, as local labor costs are still lower than full automation. cluttered human fatigue, need for work outages, etc.)) This phase of the factory disaster up on GF3 has reached a maximum of ~ 2,000 units per week in mid-2020, versus ~ 5,000 units per week in California. "

No cars are expected to come out of Shanghai until early November, unless they are literally handmade, and production lines there will probably not be complete for another two months," the note also said.

Shares of Tesla were down half a point on Wednesday.

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