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Is oil ready for a taxable outbreak?



US .. West Texas Intermediate crude futures show signs of a successful support base on the daily chart, but are still able to close lower for the week. Nevertheless, the rally on Friday after a steep sale on Wednesday shows that the worst of the last sale may be over at least in the short term.

The market has been squeezed throughout the week among concerns that global economic weakness will lead to lower demand. However, the losses are probably limited by concerns that an escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran will cause disturbances.

It seems in this week that every piece of potentially bullish news was outweighed by an evolving concern.

Earlier this week, OPEC and its allies agreed to expand their plan to trim production, reduce inventory and stabilize prices for nine months or until March 2020. On paper, this is potentially bullish. After all, almost the same strategy has kept prices up since January 1

. But some traders would see larger cuts to compensate for increased American slate production.

On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a weekly decline of only 1.1 million barrels of raw materials. This was lower than the forecast and much less than the 5 million barrels reported late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API). The disagreement suggests that oil demand may slow down due to signs of a weakening US economy.

With data from the EIA and API that apparently counteract the OPEC-led attempts to stabilize stocks and prices, the wild card relationship between the US and Iran remains.

According to the timeline, concern about the possibility that the US military action against Iran has grown since the administration claimed new intelligence that Iran or its proxies planned to attack US troops or American tourists in the Middle East. [19659002] The United States also proclaimed Iran for attacks on oil makers near the Strait of Hormuz, and recently Iran defeated an American drone.

Earlier this week, President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran could enrich for "what amount we want" in the absence of a nuclear deal. This encouraged President Trump to warn him to "be careful of the threats … they may come back to bite you as no one has been bitten before."

Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to lay the legal basis for strikes.

On Friday, the market gets a boost from a strong headline number in the June non-farm wage report. The news dampens the chances that a Federal Reserve price cut will be lowered this month. Furthermore, it weakens the case for lower domestic demand. This helps drive weak short sellers out of the market this weekend.

Technical Analysis

Weekly August WTI crude oil technical analysis

] Oil

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a move through $ 64.03. Through $ 50.79 will signal a resumption.

This week's exterior feature, lower tightly indicates that a secondary lower peak of $ 60.28 can be formed. This feature also confirms the existing downward momentum. Removing this small top will shift the torque back to the upside.

The main area is $ 74.86 to $ 44.46. Sets retracement zone of $ 59.66 to $ 63.25 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally this week at $ 60.28.

Short-term range is $ 44.46 to $ 66.22. Its $ 55.34 to $ 52.77 retracement zone is support. This zone prevented the market from continuing its steep sales

Technical Forecast

Based on this week's price measures, the direction of the crude oil market in September WTI is likely to be determined by the trader's response of 50% to $ 59, 66.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained movement below $ 59.66 will continue to indicate the presence of sellers. The next downside goal is the short-term 50% level of $ 55.34. Look for counter current buyers on the first test at this level.

If $ 55.34 fails as support, then look for a potential acceleration to the downside of the next short term Fibonacci target of $ 52.77. This closely follows the main bottom of $ 50.79.

Bullish Scenario

By holding a test of $ 55.34, the signal will return buyers. If this move creates enough upward momentum, look for a $ 59.66 retest. Overcoming this level indicates that your purchases are getting stronger. Taking out $ 60.28 will indicate a shift in momentum to the upside. If this move is able to generate enough upward momentum, then look for the rally to reach $ 63.25, followed by $ 64.03.

Overview

The mixed news helps keep the market between a couple of 50% levels of $ 59.66 and $ 55.34. It may continue to ping in this area in the short term. Pressing the market will be worried about a potential global economic downturn or recession, and rising US production.

Underpinning the market will be OPEC-led supply cuts and sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Speculative buyers could continue to support the hopes of supply disruption in the Middle East.

Wildcard is trade relations between the United States and China. At this time, both economic power plants are preparing to resume trade negotiations. This can be a positive one. Upward momentum can pick up if there are developments that move both parties towards a possible trade agreement.


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